[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

I can’t wait for this draft!

Yeah, there is no 7 foot all-star lock like Shaq, David Robinson, Tim Duncan, Patrick Ewing, or Hakeem Olajuwon but there is a lot of good talent. Enes Kanter has good size and good talent and could turn into an all-star center similar to Al Horford. Derrick Williams is an exciting player with all-star potential. Not a clear-cut prodigy like LeBron, or even a clearly big-upside guy like Kevin Durant but he should be a very special player. There is some David West and Amare Stoudamire in him. Michael Beasley’s talent without being a head case, with the fire and outside stroke of Kevin Durant. Old school comparisons to Scottie Pippen and Dominique Wilkins really aren’t that far off base if you compare his college numbers to theirs. He’s kind of like Carmelo Anthony with more athleticism. He compared himself to Paul Pierce and that is a fairly solid comparison (but I think Williams is more athletic). Williams has good size and can score around the basket. He also has college 3 range, and can rebound fairly well for his size. He has a gamer-mentality and loves the spotlight. Another old school comparison would be Bernard King. King was a small forward who could score inside and hit outside shots, but mostly a power guy who could also rebound some. A great scorer with a wide range of offensive weapons. Not the fastest guy but kind of explosive who could throw down some dunks.

Some very good point guards in this draft with Kyrie Irving, Brandon Knight, Kemba Walker, and Jimmer Fredette. Plus, you have Ricky Rubio coming in next year so that gives you five really good rookie point guards coming in next year. I am not sure that any of them will rank up there with Derrick Rose, Chris Paul, and Derron Williams but they should all be above-average. I wouldn’t be surprised if 2 or 3 of those guys get a few all-star games between them. I kind of like Kemba Walker the most. He basically hit the Triple Crown with wins in the Maui Invitational, the Big East Tournament, and the NCAA Tournament. On NBA TV yesterday, Greg Anthony and Steve Smith think that Kemba Walker will be the best point guard in this class. I think Kemba has the best chance of getting into that second tier of NBA point guards who are really good and all-stars but not quite one of the Big Three (Little Big Three?) such as Rajon Rondo, the ageless (and defenseless) Steve Nash, and the very talented Russell Westbrook. Kyrie Irving also has a good chance of being in that group. If not Irving will join a couple of those other guys (maybe all 3) in the third tier with Tony Parker, John Wall, Steph Curry, Raymond Felton, Mike Conley, Jr. (if he keeps improving), Tyreke Evans (I think he is more effective as a scoring/slashing point guard who dishes out as a last option, similar what he did at U of M), Darren Collison (he kind of dropped off last year, but I really like him a lot and he did very well in the playoffs), Jameer Nelson (more of a scorer, but can distribute, good third or fourth option), and Jason Kidd (maybe the stats aren’t there but he is a gamer and one of the smartest players ever. 8-8-3 are still solid stats too).

I haven’t really seen anyone like Ricky Rubio. Lots of buzz and should help sell some tickets and should be good for the league, but I haven’t really seen a guy who could really go either way with a pretty low basement and a high ceiling. Anywhere from Sergio Rodriguez and Carlos Arroyo on the downside to Jason Kidd on the upside with J-Will being a happy medium. If Derrick Williams goes to Minnesota Rubio look good (with some great passes on fast breaks and layups), and Kevin Love look good (Rubio’s broken jumper will really help Kevin Love’s offensive rebounding numbers). I can see NBA fans in the other cities buying more T Wolves tickets to watch Rubio and Williams (as well as Kevin Love).

Irving sounds like he should at least be a solid, above-average point guard like Mike Conley and perhaps someone in the Chris Paul range. Comparisons to Rod Strickland and Mark Jackson are warranted.

Knight can shoot, score, and is learning how to be a point guard. He is a great scorer from the wing in the mold of Jason Terry, Jamal Crawford or OJ Mayo. I can also see him being a top 10 point guard somewhere in the range of Steph Curry who can distribute and handle the ball, but is really deadly from long range.

Jimmer had a great college career and can shoot from anywhere. He may not be that tall but he looks strong and has a good BBIQ. I have him as being a borderline all-rookie first team player and is the rookie most likely to win the 3 Point Shoot Out. He’s also the rookie point guard most likely to totally go off on the Warriors like Brandon Jennings did when he dropped 53 on them two years ago. His basement is a combination of Dajuan Wagner’s size, scoring mentality, and lack of true point guard skills combined with Steve Kerr’s sweet outside stroke (and atrocious defense). A good realistic comparison would be JJ Barea without the speed but with a better long-distance shot and maybe better passing skills (not a bad comparison seeing how JJ Barea torched the Lakers and Heat). Jason Terry would be another solid comparison to Jimmer with a high upside potential of Mark Price. I don’t really see Reddick (Reddick has more size and is more of a true shooting guard) but Reddick is a good player when given minutes who can shoot and play some solid defense.

Jan Vesely is interesting. Looks like a high flyer. I am giving him the nickname The Flying V. Can run and dunk, but maybe not the best rebounder. I hear the AK-47 comparison which I get, sort of the same type of game. If Vesely can be a prime AK-47 then he is a good pick. Upside of Tom Chambers but that is kind of a reach. If he becomes an all-star he would be more like an AK-47 type (who had a really good stretch in Utah) or a Josh Smith type with a higher BBIQ and without the head games. If Vesely is a bust then he will be like Joe Alexander (but Joe is still young, a D League all-star and could give it another run in the NBA). A (downside) comparison I like the most is Stromile Swift who was also long, tall, a great athlete, a quick jumper and could really, really dunk but not the best rebounder. But, Swift wasn’t very smart and had an abysmal BBIQ and didn’t really work on his game (a poor man’s Tyrus Thomas). Vesely is another guy who I have as a borderline all-rookie first team and also a great candidate to win the dunk contest.

I like Motie’s game if he is somewhere between a Bargs and a Dirk. I think he will be effective on a team with a legit, defensive minded all-star center like on the Bucks with Andrew Bogut or on a wide-open team that has a couple of scorers and a premier rebounder (GS Warriors). I want to see Motie on the Warriors. I know they are saying they want defense, but if your top two scorers are Ellis and Curry and if your best big man (and rebounder) is David Lee then you probably aren’t going to be known as a defensive team. I think they need a big man who can score. Motie can hit jumpers and 3’s and can probably grab a few rebounds. If he can put the ball on the floor some to create his own shot and get to the line then he will be a great 3rd option on that team. Udoh would then be an ideal 3rd big man who can come in and defend, rebound, and block shots (a good comparison for Udoh would be Bo Outlaw). One of the Morris twins might be a safer option who can play the four, bring some toughness and smarts and be a solid 2nd or 3rd rebounder who can score 10-14 points a night, but those two have lower ceilings and aren’t the legit 3rd option scorers that the Warriors need. 6’10 + big men who can score and shoot from long-range are more rare than 6’8-6’9 rotation power forwards. I think they can get one of those kinds of guys next year in what is supposed to be a deeper draft.

Kyle Singler is a guy who I like. I think he will be a solid player in the NBA who can do some of everything, maybe like a Detlef Schrempf. One of the better players who is projected to be picked outside the top 20. Decent size, smarts, good fundamentals, and a decent outside shot all add up to Singler being a solid NBA player and a sleeper pick to be a 2nd team all-rookie guy. Ideally, he would be a 4th option (starting), a legit sixth man, or a rotation guy (7th or 8th man).

Tristan Thompson has upside. He is this year’s Derrick Favors. Favors got 8 and 6 in his first year so that might be what Thompson gives a team. Not completely sold on Derrick Favors, but Thompson also sounds like Darrell Arthur (who I really like) or someone like Taj Gibson (I also hear Tyrus Thomas). Good motor, size, length, strength, and athleticism. Should be a good 2nd or 3rd big man. I have him as a borderline 2nd team all-rookie guy and a sleeper pick for rookie of the year.

Klay Thompson sounds great. Great size and can shoot. Could go high and impress teams. I have in my rookie 2nd team. Would be a great pick outside the top 10. If the Jazz go with a point guard at 3 then Thompson might be a good pick at 12.

Alec Burks sounds pretty good. Size, length, and can do some of everything. Would be a good 12th pick for Utah if they decide to go big at number 3 (Kanter) and if Jimmer is gone by 12. He can be their starting 2 guard and also handle the ball. I have him in the 2nd team all-rookie and a guy who could do well in something like the Rookie game. If he goes to the right team he could be fantastic. If he falls, he would be a great 3rd guard in Houston or an ideal starting 2 guard in Indiana.

Jonas. He has size. Upside supposedly. Won’t come over next year so hopefully he will be more polished when he comes over. Could turn into a 3rd tier center behind the 1st tier which is just Dwight Howard, the 2nd tier which consists mainly of Andrew Bogut, Marc Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Noah (high level rebounder, defender, shot blocker, who is very active), Roy Hibbert (2nd tier offense, but below average defense), and sometimes the undersized Al Horford, and the volatile DeMarcus Cousins (center/power forward). In the 3rd tier I have Tyson Chandler (who is sometimes a 2nd tier guy when he puts it together), Javale McGee, Brook Lopez, and Marcin Gortat when he gets minutes. I would put Jonas somewhere in the 2nd tier range with a chance to be a 2nd tier kind of guy who could end up stealing an all-star appearance from a more deserving forward or guard.

Bismack. Every draft needs a real boom/bust guy and he is the one. Upside is great, downside is bad. Could be a Ben Wallace or a Serge Ibaka. Or he might never get it and become a 6’9 Hasheem Thabeet (who is struggling) or someone who totally washes out like Saer Sene. Theo Ratliff would be a realistic upside target. A shorter Andrew Lang might be a reasonable floor if he ends up having a long career but not really being a game changer.

Shelvin Mack can shoot and score. Could be a great bench threat on a contender like BJ Armstrong or Vinnie Johnson. Mike James could be another comparison.

Norris Cole sounds good and could have a decent career adding point guard depth to teams.

Selby sounds overrated. Didn’t really like what I saw. Might end up being like Marcus Banks (talented but it never clicked).

Marshon Brooks didn’t get much love from Hollinger. Could just be a high-volume scorer. Some combo guard gunners make it, many don’t. Randy Foye might be a good comparison but Foye had higher expectations going into the draft.

Matt Howard might not even get drafted but Hollinger actually has him ahead of the Morris twins and Jamie Skeen. Seems like a scrappy, smart, hard-nosed player who hit some clutch put back game winners in the tournament. He can also hit the boards and hit some 3’s. A good range for him would be a Brian Cardinal without the bulk or Shane Battier (7-8 points, 4-5 rebounds, great team play, leadership, intangibles, good defense, some corner 3 pointers, good things happen when he is on the court. Matt Howard sounds like a deep bench guy at worst or a great 8th or 9th guy on a deep title team at best. He is the kind of guy that the Heat need, someone who can come off the bench, bring energy and toughness, grab some charges, get some stops, give some hard fouls, get some key rebounds, and hit some jumpers.

Skeen is similar to Howard but has more upside as a scorer. Somewhat undersized but he can hit 3’s and bang inside. Teams need guys who can come off the bench and hit big shots. Robert Horry made a career of this (and even started some even though he wasn’t a premier scoring option) and Mario Chalmers did this effectively in Miami in the playoffs.

Diebler is also a good shooter and could make a career of being a long-range assassin specialist. He actually sounds like JJ Reddick. Decent size. Could come off the bench on a contender similar to Kyle Korver (the Bulls lost to the Heat for many reasons, but one reason was that Korver never really found his shot). Could turn into a taller Steve Kerr and that guy has 5 rings (including a very rare four-peat).

I am curious to see if Jeremy Tyler does anything. Has a downside of Kwame Brown, with an upside of maybe a poor man’s Andrew Bynum (two other guys that skipped college). Could be a third tier, above-average center. If not, he could still provide front court depth for years like Jason Collins (might be a good basement if he turns out to be neither a star nor a bust).

JaJuan Johnson has talent. Had a good senior year. Has decent hops and good mid-range game. Not the widest body but can still get some rebounds. This site compares him to Hakim Warrick. I can see that. Another good comparison would be a cross between Taj Gibson and Udonis Haslem. In other words, he would be an ideal first big man off the bench.

Chandler Parsons is the wild card of the second round. Has good skills, solid athlete, but he never dominated like he should have. Maybe he lacks a killer instinct. If his game translates then he would be a good, versatile, game changer that a team could bring off the bench to provide a change of pace, and an up-tempo creator on offense. A good, realistic, upside comparison would be a slightly more athletic (but maybe not as tall) Hedo Turkoglu.

Andrew Goudelock sounds like he can score and shoot. Might not have the best size but if he can space the floor and knock down jumpers then he would be a good rotation guy.

There are some other good players like DeAndre Liggins (in the Bogans, Thabo, and both Brewers mold), Ben Hansbrough (fiery, can shoot from deep, not a true point guard but can handle ball, sounds similar to another Notre Dame/younger brother guy by the name of John Paxon), Darius Morris (solid size to go with solid point guard skills), Keith Benson (legit center size with some upside, could be a 2nd round steal), Jacob Pullen (solid player, good leader, great beard, a mid-western college player who could fit in on the OKC Thunder as an undrafted free agent, or on a team like the Lakers who have some 2nd round picks and REALLY REALLY REALLY need some help at the point guard spot), Nolan Smith (ACC player of the year, was surprisingly just as effective a starting point guard as Kyrie Irving was. Lead Duke to the ACC tourney title), and Jon Leuer (Hollinger’s rating system likes him. Tall, good size, can shoot. Attributes like that gave Jon Koncak the biggest contract ever at one point).

[HobbyOGParticipant]

You doing too much..

[kanyedabestParticipant]

lmao… how good of a shooter do you think williams is?

[NiceWithTheRockParticipant]

wow nice essay…i look forward to the draft too though

[B-ball fanParticipant]

 Don’t mean to nit-pick, but why do you have DeMarcus Cousins as a tier better than Tyson Chandler?  I can’t think of any good argument that Cousins is even close to as good as Chandler, much less better.  I don’t think that Cousins could be the 2nd MVP of a championship team, let alone start for one.

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

B-ball fan,  I said that when Tyson Chandler puts it together he is a 2nd tier guy.  Cousins is volatile but a better scorer.  Both are above average rebounders.  Chandler should be a better shot blocker.  Cousins is a decent passer and can dominate on offense at times.  Cousins has all-star potential and I am not sure if Chandler can make the all-star team next year.  I think Cousins can be a bigger version of Z Bo, but it is mostly an upside thing with Cousins.  When Cousins is on he is a first tier center type on offense, but if he is not playing well then he is a disaster.  Cousins’ game has more variability while Chandler is more consistent (lots of good games with a few bad ones, but not many really awesome games).  McGee is basically a combination of both.  Great upside and talent like Cousins with Chandler’s length and shot blocking ability, but I am not sure if it is going to click with him. 

Last year Chandler averaged 8 points, 9.2 rebounds and 1 block a game.  Cousins averaged 14 points, 8.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 0.8 blocks a game.  Similar rebounds and blocks with Cousins scoring more (but getting more shots).  Cousins shot a dismal 43% with Chandler shooting at 58% from the field.  Cousins has more offensive range but took a lot of bad shots.  Similar stats but Cousins is better on offense with a higher upside, but I would rather have Chandler in the playoffs (behind only Dwight Howard as far as centers go).

… Derrick Williams shot great in college at the 3 point line.  So he should have a good outside shot and I think he will develop NBA range.  He has the size and hops to score inside.  

[aamir543Participant]

Wow, did MikeyV accidently log in to your account.

[aamir543Participant]

Wow, did MikeyV accidently log in to your account.

[Author]

Posts