[SwatLakeCityParticipant]

 Most people know that the favorite for the 2nd Jazz’s lottery pick is Jimmer Fredette because he goes to BYU and most Utah fans are crazy over him and think he is the second best point guard in this draft behind Kyrie Irving. (Any fan who thinks that is crazy and obviously does not know who Kemba Walker is and what he did in the Big East which is MUCH TOUGHER conference than the Mountain West. 

But it isn’t exactly set in the stone that the Jazz will draft Jimmer with the 12th pick. Here is why I do not think they will:

1. The Jazz like to draft young players who have the potential to get better and really help their team. Here is a list of players the Jazz have drafted in the past 7 years in the first round with their ages at the time they were drafted right beside them: 2010 Gordon Hayward 20, 2009 Eric Maynor 22 (just barley turned 22 3 weeks before he was drafted), 2008 Kosta Koufos 19, 2007 Morris Almond 22, 2006 Ronnie Brewer 21, 2005 Deron Williams 21 (barely, just celebrated his birthday on the 26, which I believe was like 2 days before he was drafted) 2004 Kirk Snyder 21, Kris Humphries 19, 2003 Aleksander Pavlovic 19. In the past 7 years the Jazz have only drafted two seniors but both of these two picks were with a pick in the twenties. All of their lottery picks are players between the ages of 19 and 21. The reason why the Jazz do this is because most players enter their prime between the ages of 23 and 25 meaning that most seniors in college are already very close to their prime years and will probably not get much better then they already are. Jimmer Fredette is a Senior age 22. Yes, he is having a great year but most draft picks’ stats go down in their first year in the league from their college stats. Maynor only averages 4.3 pts and 2.9 assists yet in his senior season at VCU he averaged 22.4 and 6.2. Why does this happen because the NBA is much tougher than College and it usually takes guys a few years to get acclimated the rigors of the NBA. This means that most likely Jimmer will average 10 pts a game and 1.8 assists in his rookie year but because he will enter his prime in about 1 or 2 years, his stats won’t get much better then they already are. The highest they could go is probably 15 pts a game and 3 assists. Those would most likely be his prime stats. I don’t think the Jazz want a PG that averages about 15 pts, 3 assists for his entire career starting. That is not their style and nor is it any teams style. This is why he is considered a 6th man energy type guy off the bench.
2. The Jazz’s offense depends on passing. The Jazz want their PG to pass more than they shoot. This is one reason why John Stockton and Deron Williams usually averaged around 9-11 assists a game. Yes I know that Jerry Sloan is not the coach any more but the system is still the same. Yes, Corbin will tweak it a little bit but the basics will still remain the same, meaning that he will still want his starting PG to average between 8 and 10 assists a game. Jimmer will be extremely if ever averages that high of assists in the NBA. He is score first, pass second PG, while the Jazz want a pass first, score second PG. He does not play the style that the Jazz want and need.
3. He is just a great shooter and good ball handler. I think the Jazz want more than just that. He’s not very good on Defense, nor is he fast or athletic, or even a good passer. (Yes, he has good ball handling ability but that does not mean that he is athletic or fast)
4. He is in a system that is totally centered around him. It centers on his strengths and exploits them becuase he is BYU’s main guy (and practically only guy too) But in the NBA he will most likely have to adjust to game that is not centered around him. The teams in the 10 to 14 range all have their stars or their main guys. (Milwaukee Jennings and Bogut, Warriors Ellis, and Curry, Jazz Al Jefferson, and Favors, and Millsap, Rockets Lowry, Martin) There are only two teams that he could go to where he might be the star. (the suns and the Bobcats) But let’s face it, the Bobcats would never select him even if both Knight and Walker are gone by the 10th pick they would likely pick Kawhi Leonard or Terrance Jones instead of a PG. The Jazz already have their main guy and if they get a top 3 pick they would get a second (Derrick Williams or Kyrie Irving) So if Jimmer does go to the Jazz he would have to adjust his game to the Jazz’s which would be extremeley hard for him because he plays a completely different style than the Jazz do and he would have to adjust to being a complementary player. 
5. The Jazz don’t really need a PG in this draft. (They more need a SG and a SF) Harris is only 28 years old and he isn’t a free agent until the 2013-2014 season. (He has a player option in the 2012-2013 season but will likely stay) His averages will probably be like 16pts and 6 assists until his contract is up. That is not bad. No, its not great but nor is it bad either. The problem with Jazz fans these days is that they are so used to having one of the best PG’s in the league in John Stockton (in his prime he was one of the best, it was between him, Jason Kidd, and Steve Nash) and Deron Williams. They are so used to this that they think that they need a great PG in order to succeed and make the playoffs. What they fail to realize is that you don’t need a great PG to make the playoffs. You can make the playoffs with just a mediocre PG even in the West. Only 3 of the 8 teams playoff teams in the West have a great PG (OKC, New Orleans, and Dallas) The Jazz can get by with a mediocre PG and still make the playoffs until Harris is in the last year of his contract. Now of course it is better if the Jazz have a great PG but it is not necessary until the 2012-2013 season when Harris’ contract is on its last leg. That year the Jazz will have most definitely better PG’s to chose from than Fredette, and Knight (Walker will probably go in top 7 and the Jazz will likely get a top 6 pick and a pick in the late lottery most likely after Walker has already been picked) They can choose from Marshall, Kabongo, Teague all three of which could realistically go from 8-14 in 2012 and that is right where the Jazz will be picking next year with the Warriors pick. All three of those PGs, I know are already better than Knight and Fredette. (And two of them are only high school seniors right now). 

So the real question is: are the Jazz "Jimmer happy", meaning do they really want Jimmer. According to the reasons that I just listed I don’t think they are. They would be much smarter to go with someone else. And another reason that I did not mention is that Jimmer will be a fan favorite from day one and bring a lot of fans to come and watch Jazz games most specifically to watch Jimmer play. But it’s not like the Jazz need fan support. They have a good fan base right now. And even if the Jazz don’t draft Jimmer, its not their fan base will go way down. As long as they start winning games (which they will if they draft a SF and a SG like Derrick Williams, Kawhi Leonard, Terrence Jones, or Alec Burks) then they will keep their fan base. Keeping a fan base comes second in my book while first is simply winning games. So there is more proof that the Jazz would be smart to not pick Jimmer.

Utah fans need to notice other players in this draft and need to stop being so" Jimmer Happy". He is not as good as they think he is. (Some even think that he could be as good as Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook! Pahlease, there is no way he is that good. Even if he led his team to the sweet 16 he is still not that good, he is probably just as good as Ben Gordon, maybe Monte Ellis but that’s pushing it)

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

I think Kemba might be gone at 6.  I have him going at 5 to the Kings.  Hopefully Kemba and Tyreke could play together.  If so, that would be an awesome backcourt! 

I think Vesely is gone at 6 too.  I have him going to the Wizards.  I have the Jazz picking Alec Burks at 6.  If he is a Brandon Roy type then that is what they need.  He can play either guard spot.  At 12 I have the Jazz still taking Jimmer.  The Jazz are covered inside, Burks can play the 2 and handle the ball, CJ Miles is good, and Hayward is a deep threat at the 2/3, so they need another long-range threat and someone who can handle the ball and dump it into the big guys.  That’s Jimmer.

If the Jazz start Devin Harris at point guard and Alec Burks at shooting guard then Jimmer can come off the bench for either one.  Or they can go small and play all three of those guys at the same time.  A Devin/Jimmer two headed point guard would be very nice.  A Burks/Hayward/Miles wing rotation would be very solid.  Jefferson/Millaps/Favors is a very good if undersized big man rotation.  AK-47 can play either forward position and is a great role player in the right situation.  Fesenko is a good-sized center off the bench.  There is your 10 man rotation right there.

 

[dmilesaiParticipant]

 Marcus Thornton is better than Kemba Walker. The Kings don’t need Kemba.

[CodySLCParticipant]

first of the dont draft any younger than any other team. That being said I’m not sold on the Jazz drafting Jimmer. But I wouldn’t rule it out either. He can play but idk if he will ever average more than 12ppg. Everyone knows it would put people in the seats, but the Jazz are looking to get back to being a playoff team. I think they should look to get Brandon Knight. He has a much higher sealing than Fredette. And will be the better pg at the next level. Before that I hope we look to get Alec Burkes. I think he would fit right in in Utah

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

Cody,

 

not a bad idea.  I have them taking Burks at 6.  I don’t think Brandon Knight will be there at 12 though.  At twelve there aren’t gonna be a lot of guards, mostly tweener forwards and projects.  That could be a reason that they pick Jimmer.  

I don’t see how the top shooter in the draft and one of the best scorers in the draft drops that much.  Some guy at ESPN has Jimmer going 20.  If he is a top five pick then I think he is a reach.  But anywhere from 5 to 15 is good.  If he gets picked closer to 20 or later then he is a STEAL.

 

[ProudGrandpaParticipant]

Why are there so many Jazz fans on this site?

[thparadoxParticipant]

 

The way this draft is shaping up, I think it’s decent.

Jimmer isn’t that bad a pick… while I think it would be questionable to take him over guys like Terrence Jones and Tristan Thompson, there’s a real chance that he could be a Mark Price type of player.

Is he better or worse than JJ Redick? I think Redick is very underrated.

Perhaps Jimmer has a lower ceiling than some other players.. but he probably has a higher basement as well. Worst comes to worst he’s a dead-eye shooter and teams can always use that (kyle korver, gary neal, etc. etc.)

[SwatLakeCityParticipant]

 I am not saying that Jimmer is a bad pick but I would prefer that they would fill in the need of SG and SF. Its looks like you guys are pretty down solid on the SG role, so I wont worry about that. But SF I am really worried about, because besides AK, all Utah has is an inconsistent bench player in CJ Miles and a rookie who has shown bright spots but I still think Hayward is a better backup than a starter. I think he was picked way too early last year, but the Jazz should have picked Paul George. And CJ, well he’s okay, but he has his bad days and his good days. You never know when he is on and when he is off, very inconsistent even as a starter and I just don’t like having an inconsistent starter. (CJ Miles is like your JR Smith, do you want that kind of player starting at the 3?) This is why I would much rather see the Jazz draft Terrence Jones or Kawhi Leonard with the 12th pick over Jimmer if available. 

I don’t mind Jimmer and picking him is not bad, but if you’re going to pick him you have to be pretty much sold on either Hayward or Miles starting at the 3 next year. Because AK is definitely signing elsewhere. I don’t know if I am sold on Miles or Hayward starting. I think Jones or Leonard would be better than those two. I too would rather have Knight over Jimmer but I don’t think he will be available at 12. (I could see him going in the 7-10 range but not any lower) I am not mad if the Jazz draft Jimmer but over Jones and Leonard, I think is questionable.

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