2024 College basketball general discussion…

Coming into the season, it felt as though it would be less wide open. Now that we are one month in, it doesn’t seem like that will be the case. Duke has lost three of its four competitive games, and Arkansas and Georgia Tech are nothing special. Other than Jeremy Roach and Jared McCain, they don’t scare anyone at the perimeter. They aren’t tough and physical, and they have not shown that they can shoot. It doesn’t make for a title contender. Kansas is in a similar boat. It doesn’t feel healthy to be relying on Kevin McCullar and Hunter Dickinson for perimeter shooting. The Big XII has a ton of depth, and I am not sure they can just Kansas their way to the title given how they are shooting. Purdue won the Maui Invitational, but still looks too rigid and dependent on Edey. When the play breaks down, they can’t find a way to get a decent shot. Loyer and Smith are improved, but within their structure. They still need to be able to get a few points outside of it to get to a Final Four, and I don’t see it. Lance Jones has been solid, but he isn’t a creative option either. I thought Marquette would also be a Final Four favorite considering all that they return, but they are still a pretty volatile team. Part of it is Shaka’ style, but it only takes one game to get sent out in March.

All of a sudden, Arizona is probably deservedly top ranked. The won at Duke. It carries weight. Michigan State is down again, but still is a quality win. They have an interesting post-semester stretch of Purdue, Alabama, and Florida Atlantic, and then a relatively weak Pac 12. UCLA bet on their trio international recruits, but they have been understandably slow to acclimate. I think they are a year away, and by that point Arizona and UCLA will be in different leagues. USC comes across as fine, but overhyped. Getting run by a down Gonzaga team really solidifies that 5-seed who maybe peaks if they get to the Sweet Sixteen. The injury bug bit Oregon pretty bad. If they could get N’Faly Dante back by the start of Pac 12 play and then Mookie Cook and Nate Bittle shortly there after, they could give Arizona a run for the conference title, but that would be banking on health when that has not been their strength. Washington has a nice one in Keion Brooks. It is quite possible that the team led by former Kentucky players Brooks and Sahvir Wheeler could be this year’s Kentucky. I mean, if UNC Wilmington can, but they are losing their close games because they aren’t reliable shooters. Colorado’s best achievement to date is making it look respectable in the 2nd half against Colorado State. Even if Arizona rolls to a top seed, I don’t think they will be viewed as unquestioned favorites come March.

Speaking of Colorado State, if San Diego State can make the final last year, why can’t the Rams? Isaiah Stevens is kind of like this year’s Marquis Nowell. He is a tiny guard, so he has little chance to get NBA buzz or develop a big name prior to March, but is an elite college guard. Joel Scott was the DII POY last year, and has had no problem handling all comers yet. Their role players are super experienced, and not all just experienced in minor capacity. Nique Clifford is a 5th year guy who came over from Colorado. Patrick Cartier is a 6th year guy who was a DII All-American. Josiah Strong is a 6th year guy who is on his 4th school. His shot hasn’t been falling yet, but it figures to come around as he is getting his game legs back after medically redshirting last year. Joe Palmer is a 5th year former DIII All-American who is shooting better than 40 percent from three. Jalen Lake is the young guy as a junior. I was a little worried about how they would deal with Kalkbrenner because Stevens is listed at 6’7″ and Cartier at 6’8″, but they rolled an excellent Creighton team. Kalkbrenner only got 12 in a game where they needed him to go for 25 or 30. I don’t know how they are only somewhere between 3-1 and 4-1 to win the Mountain West, and think 40-1 to make the Final Four is just a fun flier to consider. I have to believe this is because the betting market hasn’t caught on to the up-transfers being legit, because those numbers do not make sense.

One of the more interesting teams so far has been Clemson. PJ Hall is a star. The guy had such a rough run of injury luck that you had to wonder if it was ever going to happen for him, but he is healthy now. He is an NBA player, and probably a first round pick. I think he has Caris LeVert vibes where some team will realize that bad luck with health shouldn’t make you ignore what you see when he is healthy. Joe Girard and Chase Hunter might not be NBA prospects, but are excellent college guards who are good shooters and legitimate tough shot-makers. Ian Schieffelin would be the most-hated player in the country if he went to Duke. He is annoyingly active and physical, but it the kind of guy you want to support Hall, Girard, and Hunter. The only concern is that they aren’t deep, and an injury could really expose them. With Duke not being as advertised, Virginia still having games where getting to 60 points is chore, is it crazy to think they can beat UNC for the ACC? The Tar Heels look better off without Caleb Love, as is the case the other way, but don’t seem dominant enough to handle the burden of what it means to go on the road in ACC play as UNC (or for that matter Duke). Even when they made their run to the Final a couple years ago, they were dropping games in the ACC.

The top of the Big East is can go blow for blow with the Big XII for the top league in college basketball this year. Connecticut isn’t as good as last year, but nobody even came close to them in last year’s tourney. It might not matter. Tristen Newton probably won’t get a ton of love in the draft as a 5th year guard, but he is 6’5″ and does everything well. He is really carrying them. Karaban is not off the kind of start one would have thought. He seemed likely to take the next step, but it hasn’t happened yet. Clingan is a mountain of a man, but they miss the offense Sanogo brought. Cam Spencer has been huge for them with Castle out, but they are going to need him back and healthy next month as they are going to need a third scorer to really make a run at the Big East and beyond. Creighton got thumped by Colorado State in nasty fashion, but have everything you want to make a run in this era of college basketball. Kalkbrenner is a huge senior center, and impacts the interior on both ends. Trey Alexander is a future NBA first round pick. Scheierman may or may not get drafted. 5th-year players tend not to get taken. He will be in the league next year. He is so offensively skilled. They have three studs, and their supporting players are almost all experienced upperclassmen who buy into their roles. Also, other than their backup big men, they can shoot. With no superteam out there, a team like Creighton can win it. Yes, if Trey Alexander and Scheierman go 5-23 from the floor like they did against Colorado State, they aren’t going to win. Villanova is still figuring itself out. While the transfer portal is incredibly important to college basketball now, one area where it hurts is awareness of how much other teams in the area hate you. Villanova got half its rotation through the portal. They have beaten Maryland, Texas Tech, UNC, and Memphis, but been unable to handle any of the Philly Big 5 schools. I think they overlooked Penn, St. Joe’s (who might win the A-10), and LaSalle and the fact that those are legacy games for those guys. It is an odd collection of results, but I think they are still too talented to be dismissed in the Big East race. Providence has not had that many major conference opponents yet, but don’t seem to have fallen off after Ed Cooley’s departure. They have a very good perimeter-oriented team. I think they are can give a lot of teams fits, but don’t have the size to deal with Kalkbrenner, Soriano, and while Clingan is not all that skilled is also massive. I have my doubts as to whether Josh Oduro can hold them off. I think that limits their upside, but could really be tough on Marquette in a couple weeks.

The SEC continues to be a non-shooting mess, and it seems as though nobody on those teams realize it. These teams launch like they are the Mavericks, but who can make them? Tennessee can’t. Texas A&M can’t. Auburn can’t. Florida has Riley Kugel and still can’t most nights. Kentucky has Reed Sheppard, but that 60% shine is small sample size brilliance. Other than him, good luck. Justin Edwards has been a bit disappointing so far. Alabama’s up-transfers can shoot, but also defend like the Wizards. If their recent run against decent teams is any indication, they defensive problems will stick and the shooting might not as they get through the season. Arkansas was able to make shots against Duke, but not in any of their other games of substance. Mississippi State just lost at home to Southern, so much for any good vibes there. If not for the fact that it is kind of disgusting that Mississippi couldn’t wait to throw money at the gf abusing Chris Beard, you can probably argue that they can win the league. I can, I just don’t want to, though objecting on principle really stings when they are going off at 30-1 or 35-1 odds. Thumping NC State and coming back against a good Memphis team, albeit in a home game with really favorable reffing, is impressive. They have size, experience, and four guys who can shoot. Who else matches that in the league? I’m not calling them a lock to win it, but the teams that were supposed to top the league just aren’t that good. It opens the door.

While I am enjoying the current parity era of the NBA, there is still something quite delightful about college basketball serving up what seems to be a guaranteed loss for any Top 10 team going on the road. Kansas became a top seed in last year’s tournament with 7 losses, and I think there are going to be multiple #1 seeds with 7 or more this year. Even Gonzaga is dropping WCC games! The San Francisco Dons have a big two week stretch with St. Mary’s and then at the Kennel to make a stand.

One thing I do find amusing is that Rick Pitino went into St. John’s, and just as openly as Deion Sanders did at Colorado but with none of the blowback, basically told the current team not named Joel Soriano to leave. They lost a close one at Creighton yesterday, but are playing really well, and are in decent position to get a tournament bid. On the other hand, the guys he ran off are killing it. David Jones might not be named a first team All-American, but there aren’t five guys playing better for a Memphis team that might go into March with the best, or second best, record in the country. Dylan Addae-Wusu is a little slimmer and a two-way contributor for a Seton Hall team that now looks like a tournament team. AJ Storr is leading Wisconsin in scoring. The Badgers are atop the Big Ten, which means they are almost assuredly losing this week. Andre Curbelo is doing Andre Curbelo things at Southern Miss, which is always a mixed bag. They certainly missed having him against Troy. O’mar Stanley is having a breakout year at Boise State in a nasty Mountain West, and Kolby King is the second leading scorer at Tulane. I can’t tell if Pitino has successfully rebuilt St. John’s in one year or if he ran off a better one.

Ivisivic finally getting cleared and playing for UK could totally shake up the draft as his size and skillset could rocket him up the boards. I’ll stick with Norin’s prediction of “high” rather than put a ballpark position on his draft status.

Also gives UK a top extra player and huge frontcourt size for March Madness.

DaRon has to be in the mix to be a possible mid to late first rounder. He’s not a superstar type player but could be a solid NBA roster player or at best a good complimentary starter.

I still think Knecht is a bit too high on mocks but if he carries on scoring then I’d be happy to be disproved. With no clear superstar in this year’s draft he could be a solid pick for a top 10 team but not a franchise changer.

When I look at players like Jerami Grant who has carved out a very good NBA career and got a couple of huge contracts I could see DaRon having that type of upside. DRon is probably a better college player than Jerami was and has a slight size advantage although Jerami came from a basketballing family.

Knecht I do think will go first round now and if teams are looking for a guy who can be a top bench guy from day one he’d be a solid fit. Its just finding the right place in the lottery for him and the right situation where he can be an impact bench player and possibly turn into a good complimentary starter. OKC with several first rounders or NY could be nice landing spots for him. Also Toronto not with 6th pick but certainly with one of the picks from the Pacers.

I agree DaRon should be a first rounder, I was using Jerami as a guy who gradually built up his NBA career to become a very good starter as the sort of upside I could see DaRon having., Also pointing out DaRon is ahead of Jerami on college form although Jerami only played 2 years in college.

DaRon as a high energy big who is developing a very nice 3 point range pretty much ticks a lot of boxes of the sort of player a lot of teams currently look for.

He still had a 24 point game so must have been getting into shooting positions to go to the foul line or was getting a lot of FG looks. He is a threat at both ends IMo and I could easily put him down as a mid late first rounder to be on any number of teams if I did a mock based on current positions.

What are people’s current thoughts on Donovan Clingan’s draft status. This site has him mid 2nd rounder but ESPN has him late lottery. We all agreed he needed to return to college but an injury has derailed his progress. His scoring has improved but his shooting percentage especially his FT’s aren’t good and are the same or below last season.

Also for his size he isn’t a prolific rebounder but he has the one thing you cannot teach which is size and his defensive value is his shot blocking, altering ability. Guys like Walker Kessler have started a successful NBa career and I’d say Donovan was a better athlete than Walker was at a similar stage of his career.

Is Donovan maybe a more mobile version of what Roy Hibbert a few years ago was?

How do we compare his draft status against say Zach Edey who dominates in college but likely needs a half court NBA set up or would be okay against bigger front courts like say Minny but how would he cope against run and gun small ball teams who might go to 3 guard line ups let alone say marking someone like Wemby?

I’d have Clingan at about 20 on my mock personally and Edey a few places lower.

This is very much a beauty in the eye of the beholder draft. It is not a crop of players who are going to save a GM’s job. That said, there are a lot of guys who have the traits and/or style of play that teams throughout the league have valued in recent drafts.

If Charlotte, Portland, Washington, Memphis, or Toronto end up winning the lottery, I think Sarr probably aligns better with “core” players already in place. Washington is a bit of an outlier because I don’t think Poole, Kuzma, Avidija, and Coulibaly constitute a core, but I suspect their front office does. Sarr looks like the kind of big man prospect (long, athletic, coordinated with the chance of developing a shot) teams have coveted early in the lottery. He has returned strong from his time on the sideline. It makes sense. For San Antonio, I think would lean either Cody Williams or Zaccharie Risacher. For Detroit, I have to believe it would be Risacher. Williams might be a bit ahead of Ausar in terms of shooting, but they have done enough drafting similar players with very similar strengths and weaknesses. It is not helping any of their development. Who else can get into the top 3 mix? Buzelis has hit his stride in the G-League. Kuminga, Sochan, and Avdija went early, but not top 3 early. He has the length and skill combination that makes you think a team could fall in love with him. Then again, if he is in the Sochan/Avdija realm as a prospect, will a team buy into the shot? Aran has Ja’Kobe Walter up there. I have my doubts about a guy shooting 32% from the floor and 24% from three in Big XII play. Yes, 5-star/All-American, etc he is not going to fall far, but not top three early without a strong final month. A 6’5″ 2-guard probably needs a better body of work. Stephon Castle has come on, and now has a better body of work. He missed a good part of the non-conference slate with an injury, but since the start of January (11 games) he is averaging 13 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.1 SPG, 49.5% from the field, and 38.5% from three for the best team in college basketball. Ron Holland resembles RJ Barrett a bit, which is why it surprises me a bit that his lack of shot and rate of turnovers have lowered his standing more so than it did Barrett. Then again, he doesn’t have the college basketball commentariat talking him up. I think Tidjane Salaun is going to be an analytics darling. He is too long, too young, too skillsy, and too productive at his age to not pop. Still, it would be surprising if he went top three early. Theoretically, Topic could get into the mix, but the knee injury would seemingly make that unlikely.

That means I’d probably group Sarr, Risacher, and Williams in the first group, and Buzelis, Castle, Holland, and Salaun in the second, and Walter and Topic in the third as a bit of a holder as I can see them move up and down more than the other four.

Once we get beyond them, I am not sure the body of work on Johnny Furphy and KyShawn George merit late lottery selections, but they fit the profile of guys who go there. I think Tyler Smith, Adama Bal, Harrison Ingram, and Jaxson Robinson figure similarly though probably further down. I have a hard time looking at the recent history of how teams have assessed small guards and think Rob Dillingham or Reed Sheppard are going to be as highly regarded as the mocks think. Then again, most of them still love that Georgia win with Ivisic who still can’t move better than Dickinson and isn’t conditioned as well. I still don’t know why Kyle Filipowski gets more love than PJ Hall. I wouldn’t take Filipowski early, but some people love those blue blood jerseys. Other than the Spurs, even the bad teams of the league have guards they are heavily invested in, and in most instances are bigger and better defensively. Isaiah Collier doesn’t look like the kind of guard in today’s NBA. Can he be like Marcus Smart defensively? Who else is built like that as a guard with a questionable shot? Plus, he has been hurt and played for a bad team. None of that helps. Kanaan Carlyle started out really hot, but I wonder if he will enter the draft this year. He has slowed a bit of late, and is not on a high profile team. Bub Carrington and Tyrese Proctor are bigger and more athletic guards, but neither have a shot that anyone is going to trust.

I mentioned my apprehension about Dalton Knecht’s draft stock before, but there is little to no history of 5th year seniors going early. James Jones took James Jones-like Cam Johnson, and that is about it for current players going in the 1st. I have less apprehension about literal late physically growing players. I don’t think it matters if a guy was a non-prospect when he was 5’11” in high school if he grows to NBA size later on. History says NBA teams do. Kevin McCullar is also a 5th year senior, and is not a great shooter for a wing. I think Terrence Shannon has then talent to play in the NBA, but he is not good enough to take on the baggage by drafting him that goes well-beyond him being a 5th year player. He has a rape charge pending. Teams just don’t need that headache when he is not a game changer as a prospect.

Once you get to the middle-to-late part of the 1st round, I suspect the draft split into three paths: profile players who they figure will only play in the G-League during their rookie years, bit role backup (really just Donovan Clingan, the guards mentioned earlier, and maybe Nelly Davis, Trey Alexander, and Devin Carter), and draft-and-stash. I don’t think Edey fits in any of those categories. Kel’el Ware profiles as a mobile stretch 5. Is it crazy to think a team like New Orleans, OKC, or Atlanta use one of their multiple first rounders on him to see if they can work with him in the G-League? In all likelihood, none of those teams are taking one first rounder, much less two, who can sniff their rotation. Wouldn’t developing a mobile stretch 5 prospect be the most valuable dice throw? This also brings Coleman Hawkins into the mix. He got off to a surprisingly poor start to the season, but has been excellent in Big Ten play, 13.5 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 2.9 APG, 1.9 SPG, 1.3 BPG, 46.2% from the field, and 40.0% from three on 4.6 attempts per. He measured out similarly to DaRon Holmes physically last summer, so being just under 6’10” with a 7’0″ wingspan profiles decently. He is not going to walk into a rotation, but there is a lot to like with him long-term. Holmes has a nice profile, but not as developed as a face up player. Ryan Dunn, Dillon Mitchell, James Edwards, Dillon Jones, and Arthur Kaluma are “profile minus the shot” guys, though Kaluma has taken a step forward. Some teams believe they can teach anyone to shoot. With so many teams with multiple first rounders, guys who might stay or go oversees like Pacome Dadiet, Melvin Ajinca, Bobi Klintman, Baba Miller, Izan Almansa (figuring their Spanish passports help matters), Ulrich Chomche, Ariel Hukporti, and Juan Nunez become more appealing. The Knicks could throw a wrench into things should they be the team that takes Bronny James figuring it is worth the risk of seeing whether LeBron can convince his other two kids to move to NY. I don’t think other teams would feel good enough about their chance of convincing LeBron, but NY doesn’t lack for ego.

Bronny to the Knicks if he declares is a fun call BTPH and with a 2nd rounder it is worth a shot. How much would LBJ want to play with his kid I wonder?

Would Philly consider trying something similar they are going to have cap space and if Embeast can get sound again they are contenders.?

LBJ will be 40 at the end of the year and will be well past 40k points so could a farewell tour on the same team as Bronny appeal to him. Would he even take a much smaller salary to let it happen and be on the strongest possible team. Bronny might get about as many minutes as Giannis’ brother but LBJ would get to play with his lad and if any franchise did this they’d make huge revenues on the LBJ merch too.

It is clear he wants to play with Bronny. Take away the name and the father, no one is looking at a listed 6’4″ guard averaging 5.8 PPG, 2.6 APG, 3.0 RPG, 35.6% shooting, and 27.1% from three on a 9-15 team as an NBA early entrant. That is not to say he cannot develop, but that is what college basketball is for. Matthew Murrell, Wooga Poplar, Adama Bal, and Jaxson Robinson had even lesser seasons as freshmen, and all could very well be draft picks this summer. Brandin Podziemski was deemed not good enough for Illinois basketball after his first year. It is far from the worst thing in the world guys to develop in college. It would be skipping steps to declare under the guise of “my Dad says I’m ready, so draft me.” The nepotism of it will rub both fans and people in the league the wrong way. Nobody denies that sons or brothers of long-time NBA players or coaches have more doors open as a result of their family connections throughout the league. It will get them pre-draft workouts, summer league spots, and G-League spots. Those don’t cost anything, and teams need to fill out rosters and have enough bodies for workouts. Basically, they are afforded ore opportunities to earn a chance, but not the real NBA jobs. Zaire Wade and Shareef O’Neal aren’t in the NBA. It unsettles me a bit that there are reports the Lakers are amenable to it as well as reports of people in the league who believe other teams will jump at the chance to take Bronny. I think the list is very short. If you have a 9 and 16 year old who have lived somewhere the past six years, how much do you think they are going to want to move? LeBron has not been one of the journeymen pros who have a family in a city where they buy a house, and then find a place to live on their own for a season with whichever team has them. Is he going to want to live across the country from his wife and two younger kids from September to May or June? It seems like a long shot.

LBJ has earnt the money that provides for his wife and children. The middle child will have lived in several locations already. A 2nd round pick on Bronny to get or keep LBJ in place for a season seems a no brainer to me. How many 2nd rounders never even make it to an NBA court.

Would a team even try to draft Bronny just to sabotage what LBJ and another team wants to do

I’m still judging Cody on upside but I’d have Risacher slightly ahead if it was a straight pick between the two.

I agree that Clingan looked really good last night and with his size and motor he looks a first round lock and possible lottery pick especially if the Huskies go deep in March Madness.

Last year we had Wemby who is generational, Scoot had a lot of hyoe and Brandon Miller had an excellent NCAA season. Brandon has been looking good for the Hornets too reently. But the top of this years draft almost looks like the rest of last year”s draft with the top 3 removed. It is almost shades of 2013 draft with no real clear stars at the top. Before that we’d be going back to the 2006 draft but that was the first one with the age limit raised to 19 so looked abit thredbare with everyone getting excited about Oden and KD etc.

A guy likeCody Williams I rate and I could see a team taking him at 3 to 4 after a couple of real stars and I agree there is very little draftwise bwtween him Buzelis and Risacher.

Maybe it isn’t a year where there is a franchise hanger but Front Offices will have to earn their money by finding the best running mates and glue type guys to allow their existing or future prospects to shine.

Kalkbrenner has potential to be a mid 2nd rounder, great size and has a decent 3 point range.

I’m not a huge fan of college ball compared to the NBA but it is fun to try and work out who the best prospects are.

How are the ssedings decided?

Do certain Conferences carry a bigger weighting than others, is historic performance of a college considered as well as overall current season record.

I’m fairly busy for the next week or so but want to then watch as much of March Madness as I can. Which draft prospects will have finished their season and which can impact their draft standing in the tournament I’ve got to keep an eye on.

Thanks for explaining that Norrin, I’ve seen ESPN doing their college rankings across the season but I see press ones as more a guide as writers can favour teams or coaches or have had past issues with them. Like the expert mock drafts they are a guide only but experts should get the tournament seedings pretty close.

With draft prospects in the play offs/tournament I always feel a young prospect can rise up the board but also fall as these are the crunch games when it comes to clutch time you see who can step up. Highly rated college players like say Edey won’t really change his draft stock this month as teams have a good handle on these guys.

Also we’ll soon get an idea who is going to declare or remain so that is always worth looking out for.

Robbie Avila is a nice college player, but he isn’t an NBA prospect. He is much closer to 6’8″ than 6’10” and reminds me of Cameron Krutwig from a few years ago in his game. Avila shoots it better from distance, but otherwise are quite similar. I hope he stays at Indiana State. It is a good level for him. It would stink if he takes an NIL bag and ends up playing 15 minutes per game, well maybe not for his bank account but from a basketball perspective. Krutwig has been able to play oversees, and was important on Loyola’s Final Four run. If Indiana State can return everyone in their core who has another year of eligibility (which is most) they have the shooting to get a couple cracks at a tournament run. He is skilled enough to play professionally somewhere if he can handle that lifestyle, but I don’t see NBA as a realistic possibility.

FYI, Cam Christie is Laker Max Christie’s younger brother. While Cam is having a better statistical freshman season than Max, I don’t think he is likely to be one-and-done. Max was one of the many first-year eligible guys in 2022 who had 1st round or lottery expectations (Peyton Watson, Daimion Collins, Kennedy Chandler, Matthew Cleveland, Patrick Baldwin, Caleb Houstan, JD Davison, Yannick Nzosa, Jean Montero, etc) only to underwhelm, but that status as a prospect carries weight, probably more than it should. Cam didn’t enter with those expectations.

With it not being an outstanding draft class and several of the likely top guys not being in the NCAA I do feel that some players with a strong tournament could vault up the board. We have guys who turn 24 this year on this site’s top 10 so the freshman class does look thin. I’ve nothing against a proven guy going high and the likes of Buddy Hield who was nearing 24 when drafted has had a good NBA career.

Strong teams like Arizona don’t have obvious first round prospects on their roster although I could see some of their guys going 2nd round. So it might just be watching the tournament more for me and then figuring out my mock draft afterwards.

The draft is not a good indicator for the NCAA Tournament. Last year, of the Final Four teams, only Jordan Hawkins went on to be a first round pick. If you go back another round, you only add Julian Strawther. That is more on the extreme side, but the idea that draft prospects are needed to go on a deep run in the tournament, as is often stated, has not been true. Nowadays, it really is not. Small guards and traditional back to the basket big men are incredibly valuable in college basketball. A 6’2″ to 6’4″ wing who can shoot can still be incredibly valuable. Having those players are worth more than a 19-year old with projectable traits.

My concern with Arizona has nothing to do with whether Caleb Love, Oumar Ballo, or Pelle Larsson play in the NBA. They are good players, and will be pros somewhere. Larsson might be one who gains favor as the draft comes closer. He is a big, switchable guard, good in pick-and-roll, and while not a high volume shooter pretty effective at 43% from three. Regardless, my concern is that if the game slows down, and they have one of their off shooting nights, can they defend well enough to grind out a win? Princeton didn’t even play that well, but were more comfortable in that style of game. Arizona didn’t play a ton of teams who tried to slow the game down, but Washington State did. Arizona lost both games. I guess UCLA wanted to, but that team has been a disaster.

In college ball you never seem to get that many volume scorers like you do in the NBA. I know the games are shorter but you don’t get many if any guys averaging 25ppg. Brandon Miller is only a couple of points off what he achieved in college in his NBA rookie year on pretty equal minutes and other guys have vastly improved on their last college year in their NBA rookie year.

Caleb Love I’d have as a 2nd round guy if he doesn’t return. He has a good size for a combo guard and has improved his 3 point range. I’m surprised he’s not on any mockboards.

Arizona has a very experienced line up several of whom will have good professional careers but might not really be NBA regulars. With the transfer portal colleges now have the option to add experienced year 3 to even 5 guys who along with the guys who play all their college career on one team can give teams a relevant team each season.

THere will be colleges which are magnets for one and done guys but you can always have more experienced guys around them and if a college has a very good side all graduating or declaring at the same time they can recruit from HS and now via the transfer portal.

With such things as NIL rights do people think it could be financially better for a top college player who may not transition well into the NBA to see out his full eligibility in college before he has to go pro?

A top player on a proven college team would be a major star in that area and get coverage in all the college basketball press and media too. But if they were a 2nd round NBA pick lets say they could end up being on the bench with a lesser profile but guaranteed a couple of years money?

This site’s new 2024 mock is interesting with Sarr the only special frontcourt player in the tpp 10 and the first round looking very backcourt heavy in the top 20 at least. A few what we would consider undersized guards very high in the draft and Knecht now in the top 3?

NIL has definitely made it easier for guys to stay in college. Armando Bacot and Hunter Dickinson would probably in the G-League or abroad if not for it. It would seem likely Kevin McCullar opts for the pros rather than return for a 6th year. Antonio Given that Drew Timme is not on a two-way, one can reasonably argue he would have made more from NIL had he opted to use his 5th year of eligibility than he has with the Wisconsin Herd. Antonio Reeves helped himself in the short-term by up-transferring to Kentucky, but also might have helped his draft stock. Cam Spencer is still undersized, but certainly has helped his pro prospect by landing at Connecticut. While we don’t really have a control group, I can argue that in previous years those draft class versions of Dillon Mitchell and Kel’el Ware declare for the draft after bad freshman seasons. I think both those players benefited as well as the NBA as it is better for them it has fewer players on its rosters who aren’t ready to see the floor. A big part of that is who makes up a draft class. It isn’t to say everyone gets better if they hold out. I don’t think long-term. I don’t think Kyle Filipowski got better this year, and Tyrese Proctor did not take the step forward I expected.

In general, I don’t get the outcry over NIL. I don’t love seeing guys leave situations that work for them on the court and end up in worse spots, but that is their choice. For a long time, players entered the draft too early for short-term money, and quickly ended up playing in the G-League or abroad. It was even worse in football where there is the NFL, CFL, and not much else that offers a salary. It is the same sad story now, but not one that I am unused to seeing. The nature of high end college basketball is such that a proven college player who is a notch below NBA prospect can probably get more money in NIL than he would if he went to play in the typical first year out of college leagues like the Spanish or German second division, Puerto Rico, Belgium, the Baltic and Balkan countries, etc. Heck, Nigel Pack has made a whole lot more at Miami than he likely will in his first year as a pro. Good for them. One can argue that there is really isn’t a ton of difference in the play of guys getting considerable NIL money those who do not, just look at the seasons of Miami and Arkansas, but buyer beware.

I’ve never really got a full handle on Donovan Clingan of UConn but I was very impressed with him in the Big East Final. For a guy of his size he runs the floor well and he has the one thing you cannot teach which is size!

I’ve no idea where in the first round he goes but after Sarr I’d have him as 2nd C on my draft list. UConn look to have a good chance of repeating last year’s title and it could be a key year for them with a couple of seniors having used up their 5 years and 3 other players on a lot of draft lists. Dan Hurley will need to reshape his roster with some good transfers as he hasn’t got the incoming class that some of the other powerhouses have. Or could the NBA come calling for him too as his coaching status is probably as high now as it will ever be and at 50 he isn’t too old to have a good crack at an NBA lead job.

Zvonimir Ivisic has entered transfer portal. Does he follow Cal to the Razorbacks I wonder? Purdue and Uconn could be nice landing spots for him too.

Kentucky looks headed for an exodus of both players and incoming recruits, though Mark Pope could recruit some back. Zvonimir Ivisic, Aaron Bradshaw, DJ Wagner, and Adou Thierro are in the portal. Rob Dillingham and Justin Edwards have entered the draft. Boogie Fland, Karter Knox, Jayden Quaintance, and Somto Cyril asked for a release from their NLI. Ugonna Onyenso, Reed Sheppard, and Jordan Burks have yet to announce their intentions. Travis Perry seems to be the only recruit who will definitely stay with Kentucky. It seems likely some of the Calipari recruits or players will follow him to Arkansas. The Razorbacks don’t have anyone who will return. They were a senior and beyond heavy team with three of their possible returnees in the portal and Trevon Brazile opting for the NBA Draft off a bad season.

The interesting thing is that had Calipari stayed at Kentucky and this flux didn’t arrive, Kentucky still would have had an issue at the center spot with Onyenso, Ivisic, Quaintance, and Cyril. I would be surprised if Calipari tries to bring them all to Arkansas as he probably did not expect them all to stay at Kentucky.

If Cal had stayed put then would Bradshaw have stayed as well as he’d have wanted frontcourt minutes. I assumed that Onyenso would be the starting C next season if he stays as he is the big defensive anchor. He doesn’t really have an offensive game but he looks a very good defender and an elite blocker. In the NCAA he can look to dominate the more post orientated players.

Mark Pope I’m sure will sort out some decent transfers to UK as they are a powerhouse college and he is a good coach if not so flashy or a big name like Cal was.

Ivisic going to the Razorbacks and Onyenso entering the draft.

Kevin Young the Suns associate Head Coach has replaced Mark Pope at BYU. Slightly strange move for Kevin as its not one of the bigger colleges and he was being touted as a likely future NBA HC. Also he was one of the highest paid assistants in the NBA.

I wonder if BYU got good compensation from Kentucky when Pope moved on to pay the Suns for Young’s services. Is there a rule or just a gentleman’s agreement that one NBA team cannot “poach” another team’s Head Coach?

Kevin Young is a Mormon from Salt Lake City, and BYU has a great deal of meaning to people of that faith. I would think that there were not many college jobs that could get a young, highly paid, fast-tracked NBA assistant to get off his current path, but obviously BYU means something to him. It is one of those jobs where they get enough players to where they are typically pretty good, but it is hard to get the top end guys to be great. I think they will be able to compete in the Big XII, but it will be a lift to win it with Kansas, Houston, Baylor, and starting next season Arizona. If he does well, and get them into the second weekend of the tournament, he will have the option of returning to the NBA.

I didn’t know about the faith link so it all makes sense. It just seemed a bit leftfield as he had been in the G League for many years before finding his way into the NBA and working up through the assistant ranks to a very lucrative associate role. He was touted as the next cab off the block for a HC role and it’s not like he went to a powerhouse college. If UK had wanted a name after Cal moved on I could have seen them making the offer to Kevin more than BYU. He’d have been a high profile guy who was working with franchise level players in the NBA so would be attractive from a recruitment standpoint and had all the G League development experience too.

Also the swapping from College to NBA coaching and vice versa isn’t what it was. Would UK have reached out to say a Brad Stevens to return to the bench with a mega money offer?

I get that Kevin gets a HC role in an area he will enjoy living in, can recruit some good prospects, likely has a very nice salary which would be as good if not better than his Phoenix one. Also with a young family the attraction of a max 40 game college season compared to a possible 100 game NBA season gives him a great work life balance. But before you go and say hi to the Osmonds and co can you help Phoenix finally win that title Kevin?

UConn have added Tarris Reed Jr.from Michigan to help fill the void left by Donovan Clingan. He looks a very powerful post player and gives the Huskies a big body in the paint. He will still have 2 years college eligibility left so gives the team some ongoing experience.

Robbie Avila has followed his college coach to St Louis. I must admit I’d not seen much of him but one of the guys on here had him in the lottery in his mocks. So I’ll keep an eye out for Robbie next season with a view to future drafts.