2022 March Madness Thread

Auburn’s getting crushed right now.

Louisiana Tech beat North Texas… 42-36. That’s not a typo… that’s the final score not half time.

Other than Kentucky, I don’t think the SEC is all that good. ESPN’s deal with the SEC has them talk that league up as if this is football, but it is a league of horrible shooters who can’t stop themselves from launching all the time. None of those teams are going to have home court advantage anymore. Auburn runs hot and cold, mostly hot at home and cold away from it. The size and length of Kessler and Smith should make them formidable defensively and on the glass, but you only have to look at the Texas A&M game to see what happens when they run into a guy who gets hot. It is not as if Texas A&M is anything to write home about. I don’t think a team that takes as many threes as Auburn does and shoots a collective 32% is going to string together six straight in March. Tennessee has been on a nice run of shooting, but they were a walking scoring drought early in the year. LSU is a terrible shooting team. Arkansas had to go to South Dakota in Stanley Umude to get themselves a guy who can hit better than 1/3, and their whole thing can look ugly when Notae is off his game.

Providence feels like they are on a magical run. All they did was play close games in the Big East, but the Big East is good. They rolled the Big Ten in their crossover event, split with the Big XII, and even the bottom of the league has good non-conference wins. DePaul beat Louisville and Rutgers. Butler took out Oklahoma. Xavier beat OSU, Va Tech, and OK State. I think the perception of the Big East and its players is damaged by its deal with Fox making them invisible to ESPN, and as a result the popular narrative. While being older is a detriment to draft perception, though it has not kept Villanova players from doing well, it is going on more than a half-decade where being older is good for college basketball success. One has to look at Providence’s 8-man rotation. Seven of the eight are 5-year seniors, 4-year seniors, or a redshirt junior. All have big minutes under their belts over their careers. I do not think it is luck that they are pulling so many close games out. A conference tournament final against Villanova would cap the best regular season in that school’s history, and should they knock off Villanova should lock them into a #1 seed, certainly no lower than a #2 seed. It feels a more extreme version of the 2017 UNC title team where they don’t have any standout draft prospects, but are just solid and fearless all over.

Big takeaways from the new wave of college basketball commercials:
-Julius Marble II of Michigan State has to drop the mustache, because he looks a little too much like the guy cheering on Tyler in Reggie Miller’s Wendy’s ad. If he does keep it, he needs to get in the next commercial.
-The Fighting Sams or Uncle Sams would have been a much better name for Daniel Snyder’s football team, and you definitely could have gotten Samuel L Jackson to sell his name and likeness for the logo and mascot. Why else would he be doing every commercial when he also done something like 170 movies that have grossed $20 billion over forty some years.

MWC is all as advertised… Boise State just fended off Wyoming and now we get San Diego State favored against Colorado State in Vegas… should be great!

Drew Timme reminds me so much of Luis scola in terms of playing style it’s not even a joke. He won’t be a high draft pick but I could see him having a solid career.

Idk, but imo Kelvin Sampson would be a great NBA coach if he were doing it now and had the green light to win. This Houston team really out plays their opponents. They just can’t shoot worth anything. Houston should be winning by 30 right now if they could actually make their shots.

The SEC: It just means more missed shots. Seriously, no matter how much ESPN talks up that league, it won’t make them capable of making a jump shot. Six teams, zero opponents with a single digit seed, and only Arkansas survived the first weekend. This is quite possibly the worst showing of a major conference in years, though they might have to invite Wisconsin in with OU and Texas after that shooting display. For the love of all things good in the world, when your team is shooting 1-10 to 1-17 or 2-16 from behind the arc, STOP passing up layups for threes. These games are being played in the 50s and 60s, take the easy ones when they arise.

The depth of the ACC was down. FSU, Virginia, Louisville, and Syracuse were all down, but Duke, UNC, Miami, and the now departing Notre Dame carried themselves well so far. Three Sweet Sixteen teams is pretty good. Still, the committee did everything they could to get Duke to make a run. Getting past Texas Tech won’t be easy. They struggled far more with Michigan State than I thought they would.

It really is a fascinating contrast to see much better the older teams are despite the focus on one-and-done players. Miami and Providence have older rotations than OKC at the moment. Now, OKC is trying to lose, which is why Poku and Maledon are back to getting big minutes but still. In the NIL era, I wonder if the focus is going to be on the transfer portal. Those two are the most extreme, but Texas Tech, Houston, Iowa State, and Arkansas are upperclass and transfer heavy. Kansas and Villanova are upperclass heavy as they tend to be. UNC and UCLA sometimes have one-and-done heavy rosters, but not this year. Purdue has a couple sophomores in Ivey and Edey, but are surrounded by seniors. The one hope is that all the Saint Peters juniors don’t break up and enter the portal but the past decade has really revealed that it is far less likely to build a title team with overwhelmingly one-and-done freshman. One-and-done transfers, on the other hand, seem to be in vogue.

Oh, and it was weird seeing Zed Key so sad at the end of the Villanova-OSU game. He looked like a taller Stephen A Smith after a discussion about the Knicks.

I don’t know about one-and-dones being funneled to the SEC. Just looking over the next incoming class, college basketball recruiting still seems regional outside of the blue bloods like Duke, Kansas, UNC, Kentucky, etc. I guess the area around Arkansas is having an especially strong year, and the Razorbacks are getting a couple in-staters and one from just across the border in Missouri. My point is that if you are thinking ahead to next year, would you rather be Arkansas starting over (assuming all their seniors leave and Jaylin Williams declares) with a highly regarded freshman class or the portal route? Get me Jaelin Llewellyn out of Princeton, Camren Wynter from Drexel, Fardaws Aimaq of Utah Valley, Payton Sparks of Ball State, and/or Jalen Bridges of West Virginia. The portal list will explode over the coming months. I think all the seniors from the Ivy League still have eligibility, and one has to assume most of them would be down for a Master’s degree for free to go with a little NIL pocket money. Recent history, especially what has been going on in this tournament certainly points to the transfer portal as being the quick fix for a program that either needs a reboot or to fill in for an exiting roster.

It will be interesting to see how NIL changes the decision making process for freshmen who did not have the kind of seasons typically connected to “one-and-done” players (i.e. transitioned easily, duck to water, showed to be ready to take the next step). Jabari Smith is the duck to water type, which is funny because I remember reading about how he was raw prior to the year. He had a great year, and I cannot stop thinking about how he physically resembled Giannis as a rookie. They are very different stylistically, but the same frame. It is why I just cannot justify Chet going ahead of him. You have to consider the difference in body types even if you believe Chet will be good as well. I would assume TyTy Washington leaves. He is not a perfect prospect, and it is hard to really see how good of a point he can be when Sahvir Wheeler had the ball. I do think he showed to be a pretty good tough shot maker, which is a nice thing to have in a guard off the bench should he ultimately prove not to be a point guard. The other Kentucky supposed one-and-dones, Daimion Collins and Bryce Hopkins barely played and didn’t impress when they did. Will their stay be determined by the decision of Tshiebwe, the incoming recruiting class, and ultimately the transfer portal class? Kennedy Chandler seems as though he will declare, but he is a 6-foot guard with a poor mid-range game who relied on getting to and finishing at the rim. As athletic as he is, how many 6-foot guards live at the rim in the NBA? Sharife Cooper is on a two-way contract, and they had very similar freshman years. I don’t imagine Zeigler, Aidoo, or Huntley-Hatfield declare as I don’t think any of them get drafted if they did. LSU could see an exodus post-Will Wade firing, though the next guy figures to have some “strong-@ss offers” done through NIL-compliant means. JD Davison will really be the intriguing one, because it is so easy to see him possibly making the kind of leap Jaden Ivey did from his freshman-to-sophomore year. He didn’t have a good year. He can’t shoot or avoid needless turnovers. I assume he declares, but I can’t imagine coaches on playoff teams will be thrilled to add a guy who will need time with their G-League team with their 1st rounder makes his range pretty wide. The Baylor freshmen somewhat similar in that Kendall Brown and Jeremy Sochan have the physical ability to really rise up the draft next year, and both seem to be in that dicey 1st-to-2nd range.

I think Sochan and Brown would go in the 1st. While the top of the draft is formidable, it thins out quickly. The first year eligible crop has largely underwhelmed. The G-League Elite has not been great. Internationally, there are probably more draft-and-stash guys than ones teams will want to bring over next year. I want to find a Hugo Besson game or two to watch. He seems to be faring well on a terrible team, and want to see how much of it is simply playing in lower intensity blowout situations. A number of the more intriguing players are older. This gives much larger spread to assessments and rankings. For programs with big NIL possibilities, where is the line where it is simply a better business decision to stay in school? The money will probably be better than a G-League deal and even a two-way. If they improve their draft stock, it makes sense. The more a team is invested in you, the better. Keon Johnson was discussed as a possible lottery pick, undeservedly, but went in the late 1st to the Clippers. He was traded in the middle of his rookie year. It is career altering going from 1st round to tank warrior in less than a year.

Any way, Sochan and Brown have the physical makeup where they probably are elevated in standing the closer the draft comes, but it is no lock. For as athletic as he is, I am less sure of a team being sold on Davison. I keep comparing him to Jaden Ivey, but that is because I don’t think teams would have trusted Ivey a year ago. Now, he seems like a top 5 lock. Who is Portland going to be more invested in next year, top 5 pick Ivey or trade add-in Keon Johnson?

Upset alert:

Gonzaga looks like they’re going down to Arkansas… going to be a barn burner…

Terrence Shannon didn’t even wait a day before entering the transfer portal. He entered the draft last year, returned as a pre-season Wooden candidate, but had an up-and-down junior year. He has the size and athleticism to still get drafted if he finds the right fit in his new school. He is certainly one of the more interesting players in the portal so far, though with it being like 700 people long there might be a few other candidates.

Would Shannon have to redshirt next season if he transfers colleges which would mean he’d not be able to declare until 2024 draft after his senior year and would be pushing 24 then?

UNC looking like they got this one. Both Pac 12 teams lose, and ACC is finding ways to win.

Here we go!!!

Miami vs Kansas on CBS in the elite 8 soon… and the quarter picked Miami. Should be a good game, seems like the ACC is a bit underrated. Kansas is playing great though.

Has Kameron McGusty played himself into the first round?

He is putting up some big performances in crucial games so could really appeal to contenders down the draft who want a bench scorer who has had a lot of college experience.

Kansas came on strong the second half. McGusty being pushing 25 could go against him but he is a pretty polished player and would as I say be a ready to use bench guy. It could depend what the contenders still have available when they draft but Miami at 27 and GSW at 28 would look ideal fits IMO.

Would Braun consider declaring I wonder especially if he has a good finals weekend or would the lure of returning for his senior year on a strong team appeal. He only turns 21 next month so would still only be 22 if he stayed another year and then went into the draft automatically.

Caleb Love is playing pretty smooth and silky basketball right now.

Bacot dominating another game has improved year on year with the Tar Heels but is he athletic enough for the NBA where he will be up against guys he may not be able to overpower?

Bacot is a beast and if he could run the floor in NBA paced games he’d be a legit prosect. For him to only listed in top 50 of next years draft seems to low to me. He’s not the greatest FT guy but he could be an impact scorer off the bench for an NBA side and if he is a prolific rebounder then he is doing the key things that teams want from a big man. Plus he has had time under Roy Williams and now Hubert Davis so is getting good coaching and playing on a powerhouse team.

I’d think he’d need to have a solid promise to declare this year and lot would depend on Finals weekend. If the Tar Heels win then he may throw his hat into the ring as his draft stock would be high if he continues his form. But if they come up short he may have unfinished business.

Yes the Final 4 does have a familiar ring to it. I’d throw Kentucky in as one of the other big sides over the last 20 years.

Jaylin isn’t even listed on the site’s mocks as far as I can see but he ticks a lot of boxes for the type of player NBA teams like at the moment. They have Nick Smith coming in who is a top level prospect and a local lad so they could have another side who could go deep next season. After making the last 8 two years in a row they are building a reputation of being a top college team which will entice future talent.

Talking of recruitment how do people think that it will effect Duke without Coach K and Jon Scheyer in charge?

Jon has been clearly groomed for the job and has had several years learning from Mike K and was part of his playing roster too so knows the team inside out. Duke has been a powerhouse for so long but all their titles have come under Coach K. They had a good side in the early to mid 1960’s but the vast majority of success is down to one man and whilst some assistants notably Quin Snyder have gone onto success Coach K’s coaching tree isn’t as big as you may think.

I thought LSU would face an exodus after firing Wade, but they don’t have a scholarship player left. Was he making those strong@ss offers out of his own pocket? It is not as if he was a good coach where guys couldn’t imagine being coached by anyone else.

The statues of Love, Davis, Bacot, Leaky, and Manek are already being commissioned, but making it so each of them are waving good bye to Coach K and placing them randomly throughout the city is just needlessly petty.

Caleb Love was huge in the semi final and Bacot was a beast around the boards. The Coach K joke was funny give Duke have so many projected guys to be first round picks this year. But don’t feel too sorry for them they have another loaded recruiting class coming in.

Ochai Agbaji is the guy who could really move into the top 8 or so of the draft with a big finals game. Brandy “Daniel Bryan” Manek I can see getting drafted. But I don’t see how he can be ahead of Bacot in any mocks now.

Caleb Love can certainly play himself into the first round too. It will be interesting to see how the result affects what Love and Bacot do as regards declaring. If they win they have a title but the temptation of a repeat could appeal. If they lose they have unfinished business but would they want to give it another year?

Sooooooooooooooooooooo…… Who’s going to win the NAT tonight??? UNC or Kansas?

I’m leaning towards a UNC upset here. Should be close.

I’m favouring the Jay Hawks but I think it will be really close.

Wonder if Bill Self gets soaked if Jayhawks win then we find out if it is a toupee or not?

Hopefully we get another OT game!!!

Bacot… ouch! Looks like that’s game too…

Really good game managed to just watch extended highlights here in England. David McCormack came up big in last couple of games, probably will get a 2nd round pick now.