2016 NCAA First Round Upset Game

This topic contains 22 replies, has 12 voices, and was last updated by machu46 10 years, 3 months ago.

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Posted on: Sun, 03/13/2016 - 3:12pm #63065

BothTeamsPlayedHard
Participant
Recent History:
9 over 8- Average upsets over last 10 years 1.5, most 3 and least 0
10 over 7- Average upsets over last 10 years 1.5, most 3 and least 0
11 over 6- Average upsets over last 10 years 1.8, most 3 and least 1
12 over 5- Average upsets over last 10 years 1.7, most 3 and least 0
13 over 4- Average upsets over last 10 years 0.8, most 2 and least 0
14 over 3- Average upsets over last 10 years 0.6, most 2 and least 0
15 over 2- Average upsets over last 10 years 0.3, most 2 and least 0
16 over 1- Average upsets over last 10 years 0, most 0 and least 0
Obviously, some years have far more upsets than others. Last year, the round of 64 only had 5 upsets. Contrast that with there being 10 upsets in four of the last ten years. In 2000, there were only 3 upsets and in 2001, it increased to 13. The unpredictability of the first round is why the brackets can be so much fun, but guys are often left holding back on upsets they can see but do not ultimately call (i.e. 13, 14, and 15 seeds). I want to see if a different variation of the pool can work, and figure the forum would be a good place to put out the trial balloon.
So, without further ado, here is the game.
Pick 3 and only 3: 9 or 10 seeded teams to win (as there is an average of 3 upsets in those 8 games). You receive 9 points for a correct 8/9 upset and 10 points for a correct 7/10 upset.
Choose from: Connecticut, Temple, Cincinnati, Virginia Commonwealth, Providence, Pittsburgh, Butler, and Syracuse
Pick 4 and only 4: 11, 12, or 13 seeded teams to win (as there is an average of 4.3 upsets in those 12 games). You receive 11 points for a correct 6/11 upset, 12 points for a correct 5/12-seed upset, and 13 points for a correct 4/13 upset.
Choose from: Vanderbilt, Wichita State, South Dakota State, Hawaii, Northern Iowa, Yale, UNC Wilmington, Michigan, Tulsa, Chattanooga, Stony Brook, Gonzaga, Arkansas-Little Rock, and Iona
Pick 1 and only 1: 14, 15, or 16 seeded teams to win (as there is an average of 0.9 upsets in those 12 games). You receive 14 points for a correct 3/14 upset, 15 points for a correct 2/15 upset and 16 points for a correct 1/16 upset.
Choose from: Buffalo, UNC Asheville, Austin Peay, Green Bay, Cal State Bakersfield, Holy Cross, Southern, Stephen F. Austin, Weber State, Florida Gulf Coast, Fairleigh Dickinson, Fresno State, Middle Tennessee State, and Hampton
And lastly, here is a bonus piece of meaningless trends, which leads to bonus points for play-in round teams. In 2015 Dayton went from the play-in round to the Round of 32. In 2014, Tennessee went to the Sweet 16. In 2013, La Salle went to the Sweet 16. In 2012, South Florida advanced to the round of 32. In 2012, the first year with 68 teams, Virginia Commonwealth went to the Sweet 16.
Bonus Pick: play-in team to get past both the play-in and first rounds. You receive an extra 11 points if completed before Tuesday’s tip.
Choose from: Michigan, Tulsa, Vanderbilt, and Wichita State
Mine-
Three 9-10 upsets: 9 Connecticut, 9 Butler, 10 Virginia Commonwealth
Four 11-13 upsets: 11 Gonzaga, 11 Wichita State, 13 UNC Wilmington, 13 Iona
One 14-16 upset: 14 Stephen F Austin
Bonus: 11 Wichita State
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Posted on: Sun, 03/13/2016 - 4:44pm #1047902

Robb_C
Participant
I think Arkansas Little Rock will get pass Purdue or at lesst give them a really tight game
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Posted on: Sun, 03/13/2016 - 4:44pm #1048033

Robb_C
Participant
I think Arkansas Little Rock will get pass Purdue or at lesst give them a really tight game
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Posted on: Sun, 03/13/2016 - 5:02pm #1047912

llperez
9/10 seeds: butler, uconn, cincy
11/12/13: northern iowa, chatanooga, gonzaga, wichita st
14/15/16: green bay
bobus: wichita st

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Posted on: Sun, 03/13/2016 - 5:02pm #1048042

llperez
9/10 seeds: butler, uconn, cincy
11/12/13: northern iowa, chatanooga, gonzaga, wichita st
14/15/16: green bay
bobus: wichita st

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Posted on: Sun, 03/13/2016 - 9:04pm #1048070

SeattleSuperChronics
Participant
I like Steven F Austin for a couple of wins
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Posted on: Sun, 03/13/2016 - 9:04pm #1047940

SeattleSuperChronics
Participant
I like Steven F Austin for a couple of wins
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- Posted on: Sun, 03/13/2016 - 10:40pm #1048084
  
  piratejp
  Participant
  I like the winner of that game – either SFA or WVU – to make it to the round of 8.
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- Posted on: Sun, 03/13/2016 - 10:40pm #1047954
  
  piratejp
  Participant
  I like the winner of that game – either SFA or WVU – to make it to the round of 8.
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Posted on: Sun, 03/13/2016 - 10:27pm #1048082

RUDEBOY_
Participant
this might be 1 of the weakest top overall 4 seeds ever…
great to see witchita state’s backcourt of vanfleet and baker in the tourney for the final time…4 california teams in the tourney,but ucla isnt among them .lol…
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Posted on: Sun, 03/13/2016 - 10:27pm #1047952

RUDEBOY_
Participant
this might be 1 of the weakest top overall 4 seeds ever…
great to see witchita state’s backcourt of vanfleet and baker in the tourney for the final time…4 california teams in the tourney,but ucla isnt among them .lol…
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Posted on: Mon, 03/14/2016 - 1:00am #1048094

JordanC20
Participant
9/10 – UConn Butler Syracuse
11/12/13 – Gonzaga Vandy Hawaii UNI
14/15/16 – Fresno State
Play in team – Vanderbilt

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Posted on: Mon, 03/14/2016 - 1:00am #1047964

JordanC20
Participant
9/10 – UConn Butler Syracuse
11/12/13 – Gonzaga Vandy Hawaii UNI
14/15/16 – Fresno State
Play in team – Vanderbilt

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Posted on: Mon, 03/14/2016 - 4:50am #1048118

Dazzling Dunks and Basketball Bloopers
Participant
Hawaii over cal seems plausible.
I think Wichita state can beat Arizona.
Northern Iowa over Texas.
Michigan could beat nd if they get by Tulsa.
If Stephen f Austin can handle West Virginia’s pressure and hit outside shots an upset is definitely possible.

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Posted on: Mon, 03/14/2016 - 4:50am #1047988

Dazzling Dunks and Basketball Bloopers
Participant
Hawaii over cal seems plausible.
I think Wichita state can beat Arizona.
Northern Iowa over Texas.
Michigan could beat nd if they get by Tulsa.
If Stephen f Austin can handle West Virginia’s pressure and hit outside shots an upset is definitely possible.

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Posted on: Mon, 03/14/2016 - 8:25am #1048134

Memphis Madness
Participant
If the top teams are bad then it means the mediocre teams are even worse…
I don’t have a TON of upsets… I have Northern Illinois winning a game. Then Gonzaga in the Sweet 16 but they are a power program that might be underseeded at an 11.
I have Kansas, Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Michigan State in my Final Four with Kentucky beating Oklahoma for the title. Should be a great title game if you like guards. Even if you don’t, it should STILL be a great title game if that is what we end up with — might be the best possible title game for excitement and star power. Skal is one of the top WILD CARDS in this tourney. Solidly athletic bigs who can block shots and who have some range are ALWAYS dangerous. Hopefully he shows us something…

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Posted on: Mon, 03/14/2016 - 8:25am #1048004

Memphis Madness
Participant
If the top teams are bad then it means the mediocre teams are even worse…
I don’t have a TON of upsets… I have Northern Illinois winning a game. Then Gonzaga in the Sweet 16 but they are a power program that might be underseeded at an 11.
I have Kansas, Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Michigan State in my Final Four with Kentucky beating Oklahoma for the title. Should be a great title game if you like guards. Even if you don’t, it should STILL be a great title game if that is what we end up with — might be the best possible title game for excitement and star power. Skal is one of the top WILD CARDS in this tourney. Solidly athletic bigs who can block shots and who have some range are ALWAYS dangerous. Hopefully he shows us something…

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- Posted on: Mon, 03/14/2016 - 8:28am #1048136
  
  dcase
  Participant
  It would be pretty remarkable if Northern Illinois were to win a game…….since they are not even in the tournament.
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- Posted on: Mon, 03/14/2016 - 8:28am #1048006
  
  dcase
  Participant
  It would be pretty remarkable if Northern Illinois were to win a game…….since they are not even in the tournament.
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Posted on: Mon, 03/14/2016 - 10:04am #1048150

SubZero
Participant
Some of the big upsets that are making me lose sleep are Stephen F. Austin over West Virginia, and in the 2nd round Providence over UNC and Northern Iowa over Texas A&M. The last couple years I got all my big upsets right but my bracket would’ve been screwed if I had gotten them wrong
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Posted on: Mon, 03/14/2016 - 10:04am #1048020

SubZero
Participant
Some of the big upsets that are making me lose sleep are Stephen F. Austin over West Virginia, and in the 2nd round Providence over UNC and Northern Iowa over Texas A&M. The last couple years I got all my big upsets right but my bracket would’ve been screwed if I had gotten them wrong
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Posted on: Mon, 03/14/2016 - 10:13am #1048154

machu46
Participant
9/10: Syracuse, Providence, Pittsburgh
11-13: Gonzaga, UNC Wilmington, Chattanooga, Wichita State
14-16: Buffalo
Bonus: Wichita State

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Posted on: Mon, 03/14/2016 - 10:13am #1048024

machu46
Participant
9/10: Syracuse, Providence, Pittsburgh
11-13: Gonzaga, UNC Wilmington, Chattanooga, Wichita State
14-16: Buffalo
Bonus: Wichita State

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