2014 Draft Prospect

That’s a pretty good list. I kinda feel like Wiggins and Oarker should both be in the top with Embiid. Then Harris, Exum, Vonleh, Randle should move up a tad. This draft class could have more than 5 or 6 all stars. I’m thinking more than that. I’m not totally sold on Embiid, but I think Wiggins and Parker are for sure getting there. People need to remember that Embiid isn’t playing a ton right away if he gets drafted. It could take him his entire rookie contract before he starts making a real impact in the NBA. Which is why I wouldn’t chose him first overall.

That’s a pretty good list. I kinda feel like Wiggins and Oarker should both be in the top with Embiid. Then Harris, Exum, Vonleh, Randle should move up a tad. This draft class could have more than 5 or 6 all stars. I’m thinking more than that. I’m not totally sold on Embiid, but I think Wiggins and Parker are for sure getting there. People need to remember that Embiid isn’t playing a ton right away if he gets drafted. It could take him his entire rookie contract before he starts making a real impact in the NBA. Which is why I wouldn’t chose him first overall.

 Do you feel Parker is a sure bet to reach his full potential? I noticed you didn’t include a worst case or a reality.

 Do you feel Parker is a sure bet to reach his full potential? I noticed you didn’t include a worst case or a reality.

Personally, I don’t think any of these guys are "surefire franchise/AS guys".  I think Embiid, Wiggins, Exum, and Parker could all potentially be that, but don’t think any of them are surefire.  I think Embiid is probably the closest, and I don’t think that Jabari should be on a tier higher than Wiggins.  I think both have concerns, and actually think Wiggins is more likely to be a franchise guy.

Personally, I don’t think any of these guys are "surefire franchise/AS guys".  I think Embiid, Wiggins, Exum, and Parker could all potentially be that, but don’t think any of them are surefire.  I think Embiid is probably the closest, and I don’t think that Jabari should be on a tier higher than Wiggins.  I think both have concerns, and actually think Wiggins is more likely to be a franchise guy.

I don’t see a LeBron or Durant in this draft.  Maybe not even an MVP type like Derrick Rose.

I would put a few guys at Tier 1b though: Parker, Wiggins, Embiid

Tier 2a: Smart and Randle

I haven’t followed Dante Exum enough to properly rate him. 

I like Embiid but I wouldn’t count on him being the next Hakeem or Duncan.  He could come out this year or he could stay another year.  I think another year would help, but improving his game is up to him — not anyone else.

In an earlier thread I compared Andrew Wiggin’s stats to Richard Dumas’ freshman year stats.  Pretty similar.  I think Wiggins can be a heck of a player, but I also thought the same of Richard Dumas.

I think Wiggins will put up numbers similar to Richard Dumas’ rookie year stats if Wiggins comes out this year.

Dumas put up 15.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.8 steals, and 0.8 blocks a game.  Dumas also shot 52% from the field and 70% from the line.

I think Wiggins will get his production within the flow of the offense.  I doubt he goes MJ and puts up a ton of shots.  I don’t think that is his game.

I think Jabari Parker puts up better stats due to a higher usage and since he is a better shooter/scorer.  I think he does something similar to Carmelo Anthony or Bernard King. 

… Bernard King went nuts his rookie year, going for 24 points and 9.5 rebounds a game.  I don’t see Jabari Parker doing that, but I think Parker could get closer to King’s career average of 22.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.3 assists, and 1 steal a game. 

I predict Marcus Smart will put up bipolar numbers throughout the season.  He will look like a ROY or MVP on some nights — the second coming of a D Leaguer the next.

For Embiid, I think he will be a rich man’s version of Olden Polynice his rookie year.  In Polynice’s best NBA stint (with the Kings) he played 30 minutes a night, going for 10.8 points, 8.8 boards, 1.2 assists, and 0.8 blocks. 

Julius Randle will put up good numbers, get some good dunks and get compared to these following players: Zach Randolph, Derrick Coleman, Chris Webber, Antoine Carr, Hank Gathers, Andray Blatche, Tractor Traylor on a good/great day, Paul Millsap, Larry Johnson (Grandmama version), Larry Johnson (Knicks version), Chris Washburn (only read about him), and Corliss Williamson.

I don’t see a LeBron or Durant in this draft.  Maybe not even an MVP type like Derrick Rose.

I would put a few guys at Tier 1b though: Parker, Wiggins, Embiid

Tier 2a: Smart and Randle

I haven’t followed Dante Exum enough to properly rate him. 

I like Embiid but I wouldn’t count on him being the next Hakeem or Duncan.  He could come out this year or he could stay another year.  I think another year would help, but improving his game is up to him — not anyone else.

In an earlier thread I compared Andrew Wiggin’s stats to Richard Dumas’ freshman year stats.  Pretty similar.  I think Wiggins can be a heck of a player, but I also thought the same of Richard Dumas.

I think Wiggins will put up numbers similar to Richard Dumas’ rookie year stats if Wiggins comes out this year.

Dumas put up 15.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.8 steals, and 0.8 blocks a game.  Dumas also shot 52% from the field and 70% from the line.

I think Wiggins will get his production within the flow of the offense.  I doubt he goes MJ and puts up a ton of shots.  I don’t think that is his game.

I think Jabari Parker puts up better stats due to a higher usage and since he is a better shooter/scorer.  I think he does something similar to Carmelo Anthony or Bernard King. 

… Bernard King went nuts his rookie year, going for 24 points and 9.5 rebounds a game.  I don’t see Jabari Parker doing that, but I think Parker could get closer to King’s career average of 22.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.3 assists, and 1 steal a game. 

I predict Marcus Smart will put up bipolar numbers throughout the season.  He will look like a ROY or MVP on some nights — the second coming of a D Leaguer the next.

For Embiid, I think he will be a rich man’s version of Olden Polynice his rookie year.  In Polynice’s best NBA stint (with the Kings) he played 30 minutes a night, going for 10.8 points, 8.8 boards, 1.2 assists, and 0.8 blocks. 

Julius Randle will put up good numbers, get some good dunks and get compared to these following players: Zach Randolph, Derrick Coleman, Chris Webber, Antoine Carr, Hank Gathers, Andray Blatche, Tractor Traylor on a good/great day, Paul Millsap, Larry Johnson (Grandmama version), Larry Johnson (Knicks version), Chris Washburn (only read about him), and Corliss Williamson.

I like your system, adding the sub-tiers A and B. Here’s my take on the first two tiers:

Tier 1A–Shaq, Duncan, LeBron. In hindsight, Durant also meets the criteria. These guys are demigods sent down from Mt. Olympus to enlighten the basketball world, and to sleep with 10, 000 mortal women ALA Chamberlain (jk). These players often possess an evolutionary quality to their brand of basketball.

Tier 1A prospects: NONE

Tier 1B–These are guys that could one day become the greatest player on a title winning team, but as prospects the uncertainty in their games at times overshadows their inherent greatness. Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin, Anthony Davis were recent prospects who were viewed as top-flight prospects, but their overall impact was uncertain coming out of college.

Tier 1B prospects: Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, Andrew Wiggins. These guys COULD become max contract earning, title contending, perennial all-star caliber players. As you all know, they each have plenty of holes in their games as well. Which of these guys is going to work the hardest to become the best?

Tier 2A–These dudes will make an all-star game, and if they don’t, it’ll be a major letdown. In fact, they should play in a bunch of ’em. Amare Stoudemire, John Wall, Kyrie Irving are examples. Sometimes, players with Tier 1B potential get moved down to Tier 2 because of character issues. Michael Beasley and Demarcus Cousins come to mind…

Tier 2A prospects: Julius Randle, Dante Exum. If these two don’t develop into all-stars, their careers will be considered disappointing.

Tier 2B–Everyone in this group is talented. They’re the cool kids. Sometimes they’re the boom-or-bust types like Josh Smith, or even JR Smith. Other times, they’re the overachievers who are judged by their perceived limitations. Steph Curry and Kevin Love are good examples of guys who made it much bigger than predicted.

Tier 2B prospects: IMO this is the tier that could elevate this 2014 class to one of the best ever. There are a lot of players in this group that could make GM’s look silly a few years from now for passing on them.

Here’s my list 2B players from most talented to least
1)Noah Vonleh 2) Marcus Smart 3) Gary Harris 4) Rodney Hood 5) Zach LaVine 6) James Young 7) Aaron Gordon

Then there’s the rest of the guys that I like: Doug McDermott, Kyle Anderson, Adrian Payne, Tyler Ennis, Chris Walker

Throw in the largely unknown foreign players, and there are like 20 guys in this draft that I’d love to have on my team.

I like your system, adding the sub-tiers A and B. Here’s my take on the first two tiers:

Tier 1A–Shaq, Duncan, LeBron. In hindsight, Durant also meets the criteria. These guys are demigods sent down from Mt. Olympus to enlighten the basketball world, and to sleep with 10, 000 mortal women ALA Chamberlain (jk). These players often possess an evolutionary quality to their brand of basketball.

Tier 1A prospects: NONE

Tier 1B–These are guys that could one day become the greatest player on a title winning team, but as prospects the uncertainty in their games at times overshadows their inherent greatness. Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin, Anthony Davis were recent prospects who were viewed as top-flight prospects, but their overall impact was uncertain coming out of college.

Tier 1B prospects: Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, Andrew Wiggins. These guys COULD become max contract earning, title contending, perennial all-star caliber players. As you all know, they each have plenty of holes in their games as well. Which of these guys is going to work the hardest to become the best?

Tier 2A–These dudes will make an all-star game, and if they don’t, it’ll be a major letdown. In fact, they should play in a bunch of ’em. Amare Stoudemire, John Wall, Kyrie Irving are examples. Sometimes, players with Tier 1B potential get moved down to Tier 2 because of character issues. Michael Beasley and Demarcus Cousins come to mind…

Tier 2A prospects: Julius Randle, Dante Exum. If these two don’t develop into all-stars, their careers will be considered disappointing.

Tier 2B–Everyone in this group is talented. They’re the cool kids. Sometimes they’re the boom-or-bust types like Josh Smith, or even JR Smith. Other times, they’re the overachievers who are judged by their perceived limitations. Steph Curry and Kevin Love are good examples of guys who made it much bigger than predicted.

Tier 2B prospects: IMO this is the tier that could elevate this 2014 class to one of the best ever. There are a lot of players in this group that could make GM’s look silly a few years from now for passing on them.

Here’s my list 2B players from most talented to least
1)Noah Vonleh 2) Marcus Smart 3) Gary Harris 4) Rodney Hood 5) Zach LaVine 6) James Young 7) Aaron Gordon

Then there’s the rest of the guys that I like: Doug McDermott, Kyle Anderson, Adrian Payne, Tyler Ennis, Chris Walker

Throw in the largely unknown foreign players, and there are like 20 guys in this draft that I’d love to have on my team.

 The problem with the ceiling/floor prognostications are that we just don’t know. If we were doing this in 2010, no one probably would have even listed Paul George on here, except maybe on 2B. And he ended up being easily the best player from that draft class. 

But in terms of comparing them to other guys as PROSPECTS, I don’t see how you can have a guy on the level of a KD or a D Rose right now. Joel Embiid has a ton of games (like last night) where he doesn’t really do anything. I agree he is the number 1 player in this class based on potential, but he is so far from being polished. 

 The problem with the ceiling/floor prognostications are that we just don’t know. If we were doing this in 2010, no one probably would have even listed Paul George on here, except maybe on 2B. And he ended up being easily the best player from that draft class. 

But in terms of comparing them to other guys as PROSPECTS, I don’t see how you can have a guy on the level of a KD or a D Rose right now. Joel Embiid has a ton of games (like last night) where he doesn’t really do anything. I agree he is the number 1 player in this class based on potential, but he is so far from being polished.