2011 HS Class Early Entry Predictions

Well guys, I am sorry to say, but it has been BORING up in here lately. I live in Canada, therefore I have no ESPN, but they must be talking about NOTHING, because I can guess that is where a lot of y’all get your topics from. Do not mean to be offensive, but I thought I would maybe have something that could be an interesting activity and possibly get some opinions on prospects.

As you all know, since this is a site that follows the draft, 4 of the last 5 first picks have been "one and done" players. Greg Oden, Derrick Rose, John Wall and Kyrie Irving all played only one season of college basketball before entering the draft, and Blake Griffin did only play two. The 2012 class could indeed buck the trend, as Harrison Barnes will certainly be under consideration, as will Jared Sullinger and Perry Jones. But, nonetheless, there should be some underclassmen ranked quite highly, which is what makes the 2012 draft so strong.

So, my excercise is, who do you all see as the one and done players out of this years incoming college freshman? Also, how long do you see these players staying in college? I will list the top 25 players, and you tell me how long you feel will stay in school, One and Done, 2 years or 3-4 years. Feel free for giving the reason why you feel the way you do, I will apply mine where I feel the need for explanation. I am also doing this while keeping in mind that I expect a new CBA to be signed and for there not to be a change in the age limit or much of a change in the rookie scale.

Here are scout.com’s Top 25 players of the 2011 HS Class:

1. Anthony Davis, Kentucky

2. Austin Rivers, Duke

3. Quincy Miller, Baylor

4. James McAdoo, North Carolina

5. Mike Gilchrist, Kentucky

6. Brad Beal, Florida

7. Marquis Teague, Kentucky

8. LeBryan Nash, Oklahoma State

9. Adonis Thomas, Memphis

10. Myck Kabongo, Texas

11. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Georgia

12. Cody Zeller, Indiana

13. Branden Dawson, Michigan State

14. Khem Birch, Pittsburgh

15. Josiah Turner, Arizona

16. Wayne Blackshear, Louisville

17. Jabari Brown, Oregon

18. Tony Wroten Jr., Washington

19. Rakeem Christmas, Syracuse

20. PJ Hairston, North Carolina

21. BJ Young, Arkansas

22. Kyle Wiltjer, Kentucky

23. Chane Behanan, Louisville

24. Rodney Hood, Mississippi St.

25. Dorian Finney-Smith, Virginia Tech

My Thoughts:

1. Anthony Davis, Kentucky: One and Done

2. Austin Rivers, Duke: One and Done

3. Quincy Miller, Baylor: One and Done

4. James McAdoo, North Carolina: 2 years

Why?: Think that James is a great player, and he should definitely see time, even behind UNC’s stacked front court, but he does not really have a defined position at this point and may want to develop more physically before entering the draft. He is a smart young man and while I think the NBA is definitely on his horizon, I think he will be prepared to make an immediate impact before entering the draft, and another year in college would allow him an assurance to do so.

5. Mike Gilchrist, Kentucky: One and Done

6. Brad Beal, Florida: One and Done

Why?: They have an incredibly stacked back court, but I think Beal will be the crown jewel. He is a fantastic shooter and has a number of other ways to score. I assume Florida will play 3-4 guard sets at times and Beal may even be played at the 3, but he will see minutes and I would not be surprised if he were their leading scorer. Special player, and I think he could easily be a one and done type.

7. Marquis Teague, Kentucky: One and Done

Why? I think that Teague is not necessarily on the level of the last few Calipari PG’s, but in a draft that is weak at that position, he should be amongst the first few taken. Incredibly quick with the ball and he should play a major role in his first year at Kentucky, the ball will be in his hands a lot. I think another year might allow him to be more ready by NBA standards, but I think he will more than likely be one and done.

8. LeBryan Nash, Oklahoma State: 2 years

Why?: He is a fantastic scorer and incredibly strong for a wing, but I have a feeling he will wait until his sophomore year to declare. I am sure he makes an immediate impact, but he needs to refine certain portions of his game, and should more than likely see that he will have a chance at being amongst the top picks in the 2013 draft.

9. Adonis Thomas, Memphis: 2 years

Why?: Adonis is also a physical specimen, and a great athlete, but I do not think he bursts into Memphis as a savior. This is an incredibly deep team, and he will more than likely be one of the featured players, but again his game needs refining and I think he might take another year to be more prepared for the NBA.

10. Myck Kabongo, Texas: One and Done

Why?: As much as people harp on him as one dimensional, I think he has the brightest future of any PG about to play college basketball. He is incredibly quick, shows fantastic leadership and should be not only the featured player at Texas, but the featured scorer. Sure managed to do pretty well in that role at Findlay, and on a Texas team with incredibly few proven players, I do not doubt that Myck has a big year and makes a case as being first PG off of the board in the 2012 draft.

11. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Georgia: One and Done

Why?: I actually think this might be out of necessity. I am hearing possible questions about his eligibility, and could see that driving him to the NBA. I want to say 3-4 years, but I think he might be one and done, and I think he will come along very slowly as an NBA player if so. Needs to develop a considerable amount of strength.

12. Cody Zeller, Indiana: 3-4 years

Why?: He is thin as a rail, and while he is quite skilled, it will take time for him to be a true force. He might have the brightest future of all the Zeller brothers, but I still believe he takes time and a few years in college before heading to the pro’s.

13. Branden Dawson, Michigan State: 3-4 years

Why?: He is a great grab for Tom Izzo, and I think he should play a nice role at MSU right away. Still, he is almost an undersized 4, and while his rebounding skill is fantastic, does he really have a defined NBA position? Branden should in time become an All-Big 10 type player, and he could have an NBA future, but I believe that his draft prospects will improve over time with his development as hopefully an undersized 3 man.

14. Khem Birch, Pittsburgh: 2 years

Why?: He is incredibly long and very athletic, love his timing as a shot blocker. He is also very aggressive, but still needs to develop his body and skills as an offensive player. Has next to no post game, and I would honestly not be surprised if he spent 3 years at Pitt. I think the NBA is in Khem’s future, but he will need a few years to make teams feel confident in his ability to contribute.

15. Josiah Turner, Arizona: 2 years

Why?: Turner should make an immediate impact, but I believe he spends a couple years at Arizona and enters the NBA when he feels he is ready. I think by 2013, he might be amongst the first PG’s off of the board.

16. Wayne Blackshear, Louisville: 3-4 years

Why?: He should make an immediate impact as well, and could indeed go in the draft earlier than this, but I think he needs time to develop as well. Really am not sure of his true NBA position, as he needs to work on his ball handling. Does he have the athleticism to guard 2 guards at the NBA level? Questions answered in time, but I would not be surprised if Pitino has Blackshear as an upperclassman.

17. Jabari Brown, Oregon: 3-4 years

Why?: He does not have ideal size for a 2 guard, and has many of the same question marks as Blackshear. Think he will do great things in college, and should have a nice career for the Ducks before trying his hand at the NBA.

18. Tony Wroten Jr., Washington: 2 years

Why?: I know people think the world of him as a player, and I think he is definitely a major talent who is a better NBA prospect than many players on this list in front of him. He could establish himself in one year as a top PG in a weak PG class. However, I feel he may wait a year and enter a draft even more strapped at that position. Definitely a one and done type potential, but I could see him as a 2013 draft prospect.

19. Rakeem Christmas, Syracuse: 3-4 years

Why?: I think this guy is SUSHI raw. He has fantastic physical tools, good PF size, but he is seen as a Center prospect due to his major lack of skill set. His offensive game is next to non-existent, and while he has a build that definitely has one seeing NBA potential, and this might allow him to enter a draft, he should take his time before moving to the next level. He might only play a couple years for Jim Boeheim, but I would expect him to ride the pine big time if he enters after his freshman or sophomore years. He might even do that after 3-4 years, but I just think he will be that much more ready to contribute and hopefully gain some offensive polish and more of a fundamental understanding of the game.

20. PJ Hairston, North Carolina: 2 years

Why?: I really like PJ, he is a versatile scorer and has an NBA ready body. Think he will get decent minutes as a freshman, even on a deep team, but I look for him to flourish as a sophomore. Think that UNC will have the exodus of Barnes, Marshall, Henson and of course graduating Tyler Zeller for the 2012 draft, and than PJ, James McAdoo and Reggie Bullock in 2013.

21. BJ Young, Arkansas: 3-4 years

Why?: He should be a nice addition for them, but he is incredibly skinny and will take time to develop as a shooter and as a floor leader.

22. Kyle Wiltjer, Kentucky: 3-4 years

Why?: Think it will take Kyle a while to develop physically, and once he does Kentucky might have that upperclassman leader they have been looking for. Definitely see Kyle taking some time, and him being a valuable long term investment for Coach Cal.

23. Chane Behanan, Louisville: 3-4 years

Why?: Very undersized as a PF, and while he is built like a tank, I think it will take time for Chane to truly be dominant in the Big East. Great grab for Pitino, but I am unsure of his prospects as an NBA player and could see him being around for a while.

24. Rodney Hood, Mississippi St.: 3-4 years

Why?: Has potential, but is incredibly skinny and could use work on his game.

25. Dorian Finney-Smith, Virginia Tech: 3-4 years

Why?: Really solid offensive player, one again who I think could be in front of people on this list, but I expect that it will take him time to develop a frame and game ready for the NBA.

With all of this being said, my belief is that time usually shows as to whether these guys will ever be NBA players or not, and the best just usually take less time to show it. I am also guessing that like most years, we will see some other players emerge as possible one and done candidates. Still, I think that the 7 players I chose as one and done’s go along with the usual numbers of these prospects who have been taken fairly highly in past drafts.