This topic contains 28 replies, has 13 voices, and was last updated by JonOats 14 years, 4 months ago.
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- Posted on: Mon, 02/20/2012 - 3:58pm #36676
JonOatsParticipantI was told to post my predictions for the top ten most productive careers for the crop of players expected to enter the up coming draft so everyone else can tell me how off-base I am. I enjoy hearing what everyone else has to say, so here we go. I included a player comparison in paranetheses and a short explanation of why I ranked the player higher or lower than the "experts." Keep in mind the lottery busts of the past, and recent success of second round picks and undrafted players before being overly critical.
1. Harrison Barnes- (Paul Pierce/Glen Rice) scores in every way: spot up, off the dribble, driving, free throws. Underrated defender. Rarely forces shots but not afraid to take the big ones.
2. Jared Sullinger- (Kevin Love/Paul Milsap) more athletic than he appears. Good range for a pf (42% from 3). knows how to use his big frame. Rebounding is the skill which transitions easiest to the NBA and he knows how to do that.
3. Kendall Marshall- (Andre Miller/Jason Kidd) there’s always a place or someone who makes the game easier for their teammates. he needs to improve his outside shot, but can’t ask for a better passer or leader on the floor.
4. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist- (Ron Artest/Shawn Marion) a non-psychotic Ron. Can guard three or four positions. Underrated passer. Excellent rebounder for his size. If offense was more polished and consistent he’d be challenging for top spot.
5. Meyers Leonard- (Andrew Bogut/Joakim Noah) real center size but still mobile and athletic. I feel like he has the height and frame that will allow him to guard centers that A Davis and Drummond don’t have. He’s still a few years away, but ultimately will be better than either.
6. Bradley Beal- (Rodney Stuckey/Brandon Roy) He handles and passes it well enough to play point and since the NBA doesn’t have many real pgs anymore that’s where he could end up playing. Too streaky for the Ray Allen comparison, but a better rebounder and defender.
7. Tyler Zeller- (Pau Gasol/Spencer Hawes) stronger than he looks, but still needs to get stronger with the ball. not intimidating on defense but effective without fouling. Good footwork on both ends. Scores in a variety of ways. Can work inside or out.
8(tie). Anthony Davis- (Serge Ibaka/Tyson Chandler) player I have lower than anyone else I’m sure. not sold on his strength to defend in the NBA. Will struggle on offense. Could be a solid starter, but not a star.
8(tie). Arnett Moultrie- (LaMarcus Aldridge/Chris Bosh) good range and first step to get by slower defenders. Better facing up but can post too. Needs to improve defense. Depends on what drafting team needs as to whether he or Davis is the better option.
10. Thomas Robinson-(Kenyon Martin/Juwan Howard) super strong, never stops working, good face up, not afraid of contact, fast off the floor
These comparisons are just similiar players and for the most part ceilings of what I think they could be. So no posts about how Chris Bosh is obv better than Moultrie. I just see alot of his game in Arnett.
0 - Posted on: Mon, 02/20/2012 - 4:06pm #639316

FastAndFuriousParticipantSmoking that GANJA!
0 - Posted on: Mon, 02/20/2012 - 4:17pm #639324

Bmore_DCParticipantI def dont see the Meyers Leonard comparison at all…i think the site has it closer by saying Robin Lopez
0 - Posted on: Mon, 02/20/2012 - 4:24pm #639329

TRC1991Participanti think you’re drastically underappreciating the quality of center andrew bogut was in college… not only is he a very good NBA center, but he was the 1st pick in the draft and was the NCAA player of the year at Utah. Leonard is nowhere near the caliber of player Bogut was/is and the fact that you think he’ll be better than both he and Noah is shocking and insulting.
0 - Posted on: Mon, 02/20/2012 - 4:31pm #639334
frogmanParticipantHe means he will be better than Davis and Drummond,. However, when healthy I think Bogut can be ranked as high as 3rd best center in the NBA. Meyers Leonard is not close to Bogut.
0 - Posted on: Mon, 02/20/2012 - 4:45pm #639339

Maniac MaciejParticipantI love that the comparisons are two random NBA dudes that play a similar position.
I am pretty sure you are right, and every NBA GM is wrong. I feel like I should send you some money if Kendall Marshall ends up as the third best player out of this draft, or if Tyler Zeller has a better pro career than Anthony Davis.
0 - Posted on: Mon, 02/20/2012 - 5:03pm #639354
JonOatsParticipantKwame Brown was number one on most draft boards and Ben Wallace and Jeremy Lin went undrafted. GM’s are just like the rest of us.
@BMore. I actually had Brook Lopez first instead of Noah. A combo of the two Lopez twins is pretty accurate I think. Not as good offensively as Brook but tougher and stronger than Robin.
@Maniac. I could list the similarities of all the players and their comparisons but I felt they were pretty obv from the descriptions.
@Taylor. I said that was his ceiling. All the comparisons are just an idea of who they are similiar to. I worry about the literacy rate of this country since that is literally what I said in the last paragraph.
I was hoping for some other lists or player comparisons from everyone not just how dumb I am. I know my list is completely different than everyone elses. That was the point.
0 - Posted on: Mon, 02/20/2012 - 5:37pm #639371
B FreeParticipantI get it, take out Marshal and Zeller just make it a top 8 and we have very similar lists but on here everyone loves Davis and you will get nothing for moving him down the list.
0 - Posted on: Mon, 02/20/2012 - 5:38pm #639372

omphalosParticipantI was willing to give you some credit for thinking outside the box until you put Zeller that high and left Drummond off entirely.
Zeller is not going to be a good player in the NBA, he really struggles against players of a similar size, and Drummond will almost certainly outperform Zeller at the very least.
0 - Posted on: Mon, 02/20/2012 - 5:40pm #639374
JonOatsParticipantHere are two lists for the drafts from 2001-2010. The first group were taken in the first ten picks and the second group was taken from 20-30. I didn’t even look thru the second round picks because I was trying to do this quickly, but this should get the point across. I don’t know why I’d be so crazy as to doubt their ability.
01-Early picks: Kwame (#1), Eddie Griffin, Rodney White. Late picks: Zbo, B. Haywood, G Wallace, T Parker
02-Early picks: N Tskitishvili (#5), Wagner. Late picks: K Rush, T Prince, N. Krstic, J. Salmons03-Early picks: Darko (#2), Sweetney, J Hayes. Late picks. J Howard, Barbosa, Delfino, Perkins, Diaw04-Early picks: Araujo, L. Jackson, S Livinston. Late picks: Jameer, Tony allen, K Martin, Delonte West05-Early picks: Marvin Williams (#2), Ike Diogu, M Webster. Late picks: David Lee (#30), Jarrett Jack06- Early picks: A. Morrison(#3), S williams(#5), Patrick O’Bryant, Sene. Late picks: Lowry, Rondo(#21)07-Early picks: Yi Jianlian, Brandan Wright. Late picks: Afflalo, T. Splitter, Aaron Brooks, Jared Dudley08- Early picks: Beasley (#2), J Alexander. Late picks: George Hill, Batum, R Anderson, Ibaka.09-Early picks: Thabeet (#2), Flynn. Late picks: E Maynor, D Collison, Taj Gibson10- Early picks: W Johnson(#4), Udoh. Late picks: Booker, Pondexter, J Crawford, Vasquez,0 - Posted on: Mon, 02/20/2012 - 5:52pm #639378

omphalosParticipantI’m not saying that early picks are always better, nobody can tell that, but I’ve seen Zeller play plenty of times, and he’s going to struggle in the NBA.
0 - Posted on: Mon, 02/20/2012 - 5:57pm #639381
JonOatsParticipantAnd I haven’t seen as much of him as the others (Only 3 UCONN games). That’s the reason I left him and Lamb off. Saturday’s game should say a lot since it’s so important for UCONN.
@ Omphalos. Zeller has averaged 16 points and 9.6 rebounds against Kentucky, Miami(twice), FSU, Maryland, and Duke all of which have big guys being considered by the NBA. Those are right at his averages for the season. Which games did you feel like he struggled?
0 - Posted on: Mon, 02/20/2012 - 6:12pm #639385
JonOatsParticipantHis averages against FSU, Cincy, Tenneesee, GTown, Louisville, and Syracuse.
8.8 points and 7.1 rebounds.
I watched all of the Tennessee game and Stokes (6’8") and Maymon (6’7") were dominating the inside.
0- Posted on: Mon, 02/20/2012 - 8:24pm #639443
elliotmcadooParticipantYou guys dont understand Drummond is where Stoudamire was at this point of his career trust me he will get the foul trouble down but he will be a very good player in the league and Ant Davis will deff be a star player he just developing in tht body of his which already gets almost 5 blocks a game in college so he will improve on the offense side esp if hes droppping 14 with all those players at Kentucky. Meyers Leonard also by the way will have a great NBA career he will start early in his career and show you what he has raw athletism like Javell McGee but is not a dumb guy and has more skill at this point. Kendall Marshall needs to be on a team with alot of scores so he can just pass the ball and take a jump shot when hes being left open and by the time hes in the league his jump shot shall be also better.
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- Posted on: Mon, 02/20/2012 - 7:30pm #639426
B FreeParticipantYour lists are a little misleading because almost of of the guys you listed as early picks were big men, reason: because size is premium in the league and you have to take risks when it comes to unpolished bigs so they are gonna let the undersized PGs Nelson, Brooks, Lowry Collison and the guys with out true positions Barbosa, Dudley, Anderson, Crawford, Jack and Delfino slip to later in the round if it means getting a franchise big man.
0 - Posted on: Mon, 02/20/2012 - 7:53pm #639434
JonOatsParticipantNon bigs taken first ten on my list: Wagner, Livingston, L Jackson, M Williams, Morrison, S Williams, Webster, Alexander, Flynn, Johnson.
So 10 of the 26 players listed were guards or small forwards. And several of the others are questionable as being listed as bigs, but I’ll give them to you.
And the big guys that they passed on were pretty extensive too: ZBo, Perkins, Haywood, Lee, Splitter, Anderson, Ibaka, Gibson.
0 - Posted on: Mon, 02/20/2012 - 7:54pm #639435

Mr. 19134ParticipantI like how you conveniantly left out the rest of the lottery of those drafts. There’s about an average of 2 or 3 guys from them lotteries that didn’t pan out and in ever draft there are going to be guys drafted late that are good but they still are rarely better then the players picked in the top ten.
Nobody drafted was better then Pau in that draft and Griffin was a stud if he didn’t park his truck infront of a train.
Wagner was worth the pick and was a stud also he would be an All Star had he not gotten ill with colonitis.
Beasley isn’t a bust and with his college production you would of probably been championing him over Rose same goes with Morrison you probably thought he should of been the first pick because of what he did in college.
Marshall is nothing like Kidd or Miller, Miller is a way better scorer and a deadly midrange shooter plus he use to be a great defender. Kidd was super fast and also a great defender and rebounder who racked up steals and rebounds.
Marshall isn’t the defender or playmaker Paul Pierce he racks up steals and assists. Glen Rice is a interesting one tho that’s not too far fetched.
You compared MKG to Ron Artest and the Matrix who have two totally different games so which one is it?
Andrew Bogut and Noah couldn’t play any different from each other althought in best case scenario I guess you could say Leonard develops into a Noah type.
You compared Beal to Brandon Roy…I dun even know what to say about that.
You compared Tyler Zeller to Pau Gasol….WTF? And Zeller is way more athletic then Hawes and will get more buckets running the floor. Zeller is more like a weaker version of Marcin Gortat at best case.
And Kenyon Martin and Juwan Howard, again, 2 totally different type of players are we creating hybrids here or what?
And did you know that Meyers Leonard is a sophomore who only weighed 220 at most as a freshman and only averaged 2 ppg? Davis is obviously way ahead of his projection.
0 - Posted on: Mon, 02/20/2012 - 7:56pm #639436

Mr. 19134ParticipantJonOats are you forgetting that Davis dominated Tennesse twice and Louisville once? Like complete domination.
0 - Posted on: Mon, 02/20/2012 - 8:22pm #639441

Bmore_DCParticipantB Free makes a good point…
and @JonOates…i know what you are trying to say, but in the draft teams are really shooting for all-star to superstar capability…the players you seem to like all seem to be role players, which is fine, but when you are drafting top 5, teams usually go based off potential and physical abilities…sometimes they miss but when they dont they end up with guys like Dwight Howard and Dwayne Wade
0 - Posted on: Mon, 02/20/2012 - 8:30pm #639445

Bmore_DCParticipanthahaha Mr.19134 goes H.A.M.
0 - Posted on: Mon, 02/20/2012 - 8:34pm #639447
JonOatsParticipantAnd those were just the really glaring ones. So GM’s get it wrong over a quarter of the time. I guess throwing darts you’d get it right 50% of the time so I’m not real impressed by that.
Young quick Ron plays a very similiar game as Marion. Strong and good rebounder for their size. Do all the dirty work but can still score. Ron 7 years ago was an animal.
Beal is a good playmaker. Handles pressure, athletic and a good shooter. Here’s the pre draft evaluation for Brandon Roy.
- Good combination of athleticism, skill and defensive intensity. Nice NBA body. A slasher who likes to put the ball on the floor and get to the hole. Good ball-handling skills for a player his size. Knows how to create shots for himself and his teammates. Good rebounder for a guard.
Beal has a more pure stroke but is underrated passing and driving. He’s also averaging 6.3 rebounds/game.
Bogut and Noah are about the same size as each other and Leonard and play smart controlled defense. Bogut is better offensively in the post, but both move well and can run pick and roll and pass well from the high post or outside. I’ve seen Leonard do the same thing with Illionis. Pulled Sullinger outside and hit shots. Set nice picks and rolled and passed out of it.
Kenyon and Howard both could take guys outside and were crazy rebounders. Kenyon just has more of a vert like Thomas.
And we just disagree about all the UNC guys. I think Zeller is a pf not a center and has more range than Gortat. And Davis looked fine against those teams, but Zeller got the better of him on Dec 3rd.
0 - Posted on: Mon, 02/20/2012 - 9:20pm #639461
JonOatsParticipant2001-Arenas, Okur (2 All Stars)
2002-Boozer (All Star) Matt Barnes, Luis Scola (56th pick)
2003-Steve Blake, Pachulia, Bonner, James Jones, Kyle Korver, Mo Willams(All Star)
2004-Varajeo, Duhon, Ariza
2005-bass, Ilyasova, Turiaf, Monta Ellis, Louis Williams, Andray Blatche, Amir Johnson, Gortat
2006-Novak, Paul Milsap
2007-Landry, McRoberts, G Davis, M Gasol (All Star), Ramon sessions
2008-Pekovic, Mario Chalmers, Mhba Moute, D. Jordan, Dragic, Bill Walker, Asik (All have been starters but Asik)
2009- Blair, Jonas Jerebko, Thorton, Budinger, Danny Green
2010- Landry Fields and some undrafted kid named Lin
So 24 starters taken over the last 10 years came in the second round or undrafted. Almost the same number of top ten busts. Also 4 All Stars and wouldn’t be surprising if Ellis, Milsap, or Lin were in the next couple of years.
0 - Posted on: Tue, 02/21/2012 - 5:17am #639516

So raspyParticipant"smoking that ganja" pretty much sums it up
0 - Posted on: Tue, 02/21/2012 - 5:17am #639517

So raspyParticipant"smoking that ganja" pretty much sums it up
0 - Posted on: Tue, 02/21/2012 - 6:09am #639527

Maniac MaciejParticipantVery true…every draft has some busts, and some surprises.
It is a risk/reward proposition. Sometimes you take a major risk on a player because of his obvious physical talents, and hope to get rewarded with an All-Star career. Sometimes you get Kwame Brown, sometimes you get Dwight Howard.
You have to calculate the odds that each player is going to succeed, and take your chances based on those odds. So, if you see a player like Anthony Davis, an athletic kid with a good basketball IQ, a 9’2" wingspan, that can handle the ball and be a game-changer on defense, the odds that he is going to find NBA success are exponentially higher than someone like Kendall Marshall, a passing point guard that can’t score and has defensive limitations.
0 - Posted on: Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:50am #639592
B FreeParticipantAlso the S Williams drafted at 5 you have listed is Sheldon Williams, a big man not SF Shawne Williams
0 - Posted on: Tue, 02/21/2012 - 2:38pm #639659
Jean_31ParticipantOMG maniac… Does davis really have a 9"2 wingspan?
0 - Posted on: Tue, 02/21/2012 - 3:04pm #639666

BothTeamsPlayedHardParticipantH. Barnes, A. Davis, A. Drummond, J. Lamb, K. Marshall, A. Rivers, R. White, T. Wroten, C. Zeller, and T. Zeller.
By the way, I do feel like Wroten is just sucking me in just to throw out a 10 turnover and 10 horrible shot game in the NCAA tournament where they lose by 2.
0 - Posted on: Tue, 02/21/2012 - 6:33pm #639734
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