By Nick Prevenas
| # | TEAM | PLAYER SELECTED | PICK GRADE | INSTANT ANALYSIS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AJ Dybantsa | A | How does a franchise reverse course on a years-long (decades-long?) streak of mismanagement, bad luck, and general malaise? It isn't as simple as winning the draft lottery. A team needs to win the lottery in a year when a true blue-chip, no-doubt, future All-NBA stud hits the draft. AJ Dybantsa appears to be just such a prospect. Dybantsa led all NCAA scorers last season at 25.5 points per game and filled the gaps just about everywhere else on an injury-depleted BYU squad. He's athletic, competitive, big for his position, and possesses the personality/charisma to develop into a team's No. 1 option. It's hard to envision a scenario where a prospect this talented and driven ends up being anything less than an All-Star. In a draft of several players worthy of the top overall pick, Dybantsa still stands out. | |
| 2 | Darryn Peterson | A or F, nothing in between | The good news? Darryn Peterson is one of the most lethal scorers in this (or any other) draft. Peterson can get shots off at any level against any kind of defense. He's an elite pull-up shooter, spot-up shooter, mid-range shooter, finisher, and foul shooter. His freshman year at Kansas went about as rocky as possible, and he still poured in points anytime he was healthy enough to be on the floor. It's entirely possible Peterson puts that season in the rearview mirror and enters the NBA healthy, motivated, and locked in, eventually leading the league in scoring. The bad news? You never want to read a scouting report that a player's "competitiveness is questioned" or that "he plays with blinders on." If Peterson and his camp truly believe he's a point guard who can score, it would help to see more than 38 total assists during his collegiate career (he never topped four assists in any single game). Peterson is a classic high-ceiling/low-floor prospect, but the upside is so great that he's definitely worth the gamble. Utah will look to Peterson to develop into the team's offensive fulcrum of the future with All-NBA First Team potential, if all this strangeness is behind him. | |
| 3 | Cameron Boozer | A | You ever hear the saying "dress for the job you want?" Cameron Boozer has been dressing for this job for years now. Boozer plays with such polish, poise, and precision, it's hard to believe he doesn't turn 19 for another couple weeks. He was a nearly automatic double-double during his freshman season at Duke and often served as the team's do-it-all central figure. He is a next-level passer for a post player and will likely become an offensive hub at the elbows as early as this season. He is a good shooter who can space the floor to the 3-point line and a tenacious rebounder on both ends. His success will ultimately be determined by how well he can defend – he doesn't offer much rim protection, and his lateral footspeed will cause issues on perimeter switches. He often struggled to excel when matched up against an NBA-caliber athlete. If he can adjust to the speed/athleticism of the professional game, Boozer will be an exceptionally productive big man for more than a decade. He's an ideal fit for the Grizzlies, who need Boozer's professionalism and team-first approach. He'll make everyone around him better. | |
| 4 | Caleb Wilson | A | None of the comps quite do Caleb Wilson justice. Are we watching someone with Shawn Kemp's athleticism and Pascal Siakam's whirling-dervish rim attack? Are we supposed to treat him like Clippers-era Blake Griffin, but with Scottie Barnes' off-kilter slasher habits and all-NBA defense? Wilson is a player in his own class. The athleticism jumps off the screen. Even someone who knows nothing about basketball can watch five minutes of Wilson's tape and say "wow, who's that?" He is a devastating attacker/finisher, both in the half court and in transition. He is just as disruptive defensively, where he equally adept at rim protection and passing-late deterrence. If Wilson ever learns how to shoot the 3-ball (only 7-27 at North Carolina), he could be an All-NBA forward. But even if the shot never comes, Wilson's activity on both ends, combined with his eye-popping size/athleticism, make him one of the draft's most intriguing high-upside prospects and obvious pick at No. 4. The Bulls have to be thrilled. He's the most exciting young player they've had since Derrick Rose. | |
| 5 | Keaton Wagler | B+ | If your team has a weakness, Keaton Wagler can likely address it. Are you short on skilled ball-handlers? Do you need a high-IQ connector on the wing who can also run your offense when your team's best perimeter player is catching a breather? Do you need an efficient spot-up shooter who can attack over-aggressive closeouts? Wagler can do it, and perhaps even a bit more if he continues to progress on this exponential growth curve. There is a decent chance, however, that Wagler is one of those "decent at everything, unexceptional at anything" guard prospects who struggle in their transition from college to the NBA, especially given his lack of raw physical strength and explosion (no dunks?!) compared to the other guard prospects in this draft. His shooting ability and hoops IQ, however, make him the right pick for the Clippers, who landed this pick with their savvy Ivica Zubac trade. Wagler can share the floor with Darius Garland as he learns how to run an NBA-level offense. | |
| 6 | Mikel Brown | B+ | Mikel Brown is a threat to pull up from anywhere inside half court. It's hard to overstate how quickly Brown transitions from dribbling to shooting. Blink and you'll miss it. He leverages that elite pull-up shotmaking into slick dribble drives and playmaking opportunities. He is a slippery guard and can weasel his way into the lane against just about anybody. He isn't the most physical guard in this crop, and his efficiency stats leave a bit to be desired (41/34 shooting splits and 3.1 turnovers per game aren't likely to improve against better defenders). But Brown's electrifying pull-up shooting will give him plenty of opportunities to succeed. The question is whether he'll top out as a bench scoring spark or develop into a more well-rounded starting-caliber lead guard. The Nets need someone/anyone who can score, but much like Michael Porter, Brown is a shoot-first/shoot-second player. He will battle it out against last year's odd guard-heavy draft crop for minutes in the backcourt. | |
| 7 | Darius Acuff | A- | It's not a question whether Acuff can score at the NBA level – it's how much. He was one of college basketball's most productive guards and a fulcrum for one of the nation's most potent offensives. He isn't a single-minded gunner, either. Acuff is an efficient scorer at all levels and a high-assist/low-turnover floor general who throws an incredible lob pass and rarely makes mistakes. It's difficult to be this efficient with the level of usage Arkansas asked of Acuff. The questions arise on the defensive end, however, where Acuff was among the nation's worst individual defenders. He will never be a lockdown defender, but if he can learn to fight through screens and position himself properly, Acuff's offensive prowess will be more than enough to justify his pick here. Sacramento desperately needs a offensive initiator, and Acuff will have plenty of chances to make plays with the ball in his hands. | |
| 8 | Kingston Flemings | A- | Kingston Flemings is a blur. It's not that he's fast – it's that he plays like he has a turbo engine attached to his back. His end-to-end speed is unmatched, and he can switch gears/directions on a dime. He plays with his head up at all times and creates high-efficiency opportunities for his teammates both in the half court and in transition. Flemings is a terrific at-rim finisher and a fearless attacker. His shot appears funky at first glance, but the percentages/efficiency are solid – it might be a Tyrese Haliburton situation where you just let him shoot how he's going to shoot. But if he struggles to get that low release point off against taller/longer players, some shooting regression might make his life difficult during his rookie contract. Teams are betting on Flemings' pedigree, toughness, and speed to overcome any such limitations. It's a smart bet. He'll join an up-and-coming Atlanta squad who likes to play fast and create turnovers, and he'll have a terrific mentor in CJ McCollum. | |
| 9 | Morez Johnson | B+ | In terms of physicality, mentality, and pure toughness, it's hard to find a more NBA-ready player than Morez Johnson. During Michigan's championship run, Johnson performed as a man among boys in many games, setting bone-crushing picks and pulling down contested rebounds in traffic. He is also a high-efficiency offensive player who rarely tries to do anything outside of his comfort zone and even flashed a bit of an emerging 3-point shot. If the jumper turns out to be real, Johnson could be a big-time steal. His other offensive skills (ball-handling, passing, shot creation) are a ways off, and he's a bit more turnover prone than one would like to see from a big man, but his defensive switchability and winning mentality will fit well in any big man rotation. It's a bit of a reach according to most big boards, but with new head coach Dusty May in place, it makes all the sense in the world that he'd look to his enforcer to help clear space for Cooper Flagg. Dallas is going to love him. | |
| 10 | Brayden Burries | A | Skeptics might say that Brayden Burries is caught between positions – not quite a point guard, not quite a shooting guard. I say to those critics: shut your face. Burries is an exceptional basketball player who will contribute at a high level in a variety of ways. He significantly improved from the start of Arizona's season to its conclusion, developing into a tough, hard-nosed two-way stud with a sense for big moments. He can score at any level and excels with the ball in his hands. He defends very well for his position too. His game has shades of Devin Booker – another alleged tweener guard who slipped too far in his draft. Terrific pick for the rebuilding post-Giannis Bucks. | |
| 11 | Yaxel Lendeborg | A- | There were moments during the last college basketball season when it seemed like Yaxel Lendeborg was the nation's best player – at worst, it was a coin flip between him and Cam Boozer. Lendeborg did everything for the national champion Michigan Wolverines. He's a classic "no holes in his game" prospect who will contribute to winning on day one. His upside is limited, as he is among the draft's older prospects (he's older than almost anyone in the Spurs' playing rotation), and it's unclear whether his success can be replicated at the next level (he's a bit of a late bloomer who didn't look like an NBA player until very recently). But he makes a great deal of sense for the Warriors at this point in the draft. He'll play right away for a team that rarely has patience for rookie blunders. | |
| 12 | Aday Mara | C- | Aday Mara can almost touch the rim without jumping. Guys with a 9-9 standing reach tend to get drafted high, especially if they can run and jump without falling over. Mara has rocketed up draft boards after an impressive junior season on the national champs from Michigan, but he didn't look like a first-round pick while at UCLA and is a bit older than most developmental big man prospects. Mara brings some intriguing wrinkles to his game, however – particularly the passing. Mara's calling card will be on defense, but will he be able to add enough strength without sacrificing quickness to compensate for his high center of gravity? If Mara can hang with the physicality of the NBA, he brings an interesting combination of rim protection and elbow facilitation – rare among players his size. But there are significant challenges ahead. Oklahoma City clearly didn't love how Chet Holmgren folded against Victor Wembanyama, so they're bringing in reinforcements. | |
| 13 | Nate Ament | B- | The ideal version of Nate Ament could be the steal of the draft. He's an enormous forward with silky smooth handles and a gorgeous jumper. The tools are all here. But it's unclear whether Ament will ever learn to use everything in his toolbox. Ament isn't interested in the more physical aspects of the game, and he is seemingly allergic to the paint. Most of Ament's skillset is in the theoretical/hypothetical category. If it ever becomes reality, he'll have a long, prosperous NBA career. If not, he'll drive coaches/GMs nuts. He'll have plenty of time to grow into his game for a Milwaukee team that needs talent, no matter how long it takes to develop. | |
| 14 | Hannes Steinbach | A- | I can't confirm, but reports indicate that Hannes Steinbach grabbed five rebounds between the time Adam Silver called his name and he got to the stage. If nothing else, Steinbach's rebounding excellence will endear him to any coaching staff or fanbase. The rest of Steinbach's game is also rock solid – terrific hands, good feet, good foul shooter, active team defender. His ceiling will be determined how well he develops as a passer/perimeter shooter (both skills need work) and whether he can provide any rim protection on defense. Steinbach might not have the ceiling of some of the big men drafted ahead of him, but his floor might be just as high. He gives the upstart Charlotte Hornets everything they're missing in the frontcourt. Terrific fit between prospect and team. | |
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