The East Region has an interesting look with a lot of talent this year. With the No. 1 overall seeded UConn being the favorite, teams such as Iowa State, Auburn and Illinois will be looking to hunt down the top dog. The path will not be easy for anyone, however, with last year’s Final Four team Florida Atlantic, Drake and UAB looking to make some Cinderella magic.
Why No. 1 UConn Wins
It’s rare to see a defending national champion have this much success in the following year, but with a 31-3 record and the No. 1 overall seed, the Huskies have exceeded 2022-23. With a high-scoring offense that averages 81.5 points per game and a stifling defense that ranks 15th in the nation, this is clearly UConn’s bracket to lose. Led by guard Tristen Newton and 7-foot-2 center Donovan Clingan, who were on last year’s championship team, the Huskies are extremely formidable to be beaten in their first few games. With a supporting cast of Cam Spencer, a 44.4 percent shooter from deep, Alex Karaban and Stephon Castle, UConn is a well-rounded and deep team led by a great coach in Dan Hurley. One of the keys to the Huskies success this year has been their ability to move the ball. UConn ranks sixth in the nation in assists, averaging 18.5 per game, helping them become a top-30 offensive team.
Why No. 1 Seed UConn Won’t Win
While UConn is about as well-rounded as they come on both sides, one thing to note is that it ranks in the bottom half of the nation in opponent’s turnovers. The Huskies opponents only average 10.7 turnovers per game, which means they can possess the ball more and potentially get a turnover edge. While it is a favorable bracket, UConn will be taking on some unfamiliar teams, which could help them to catch the favorite off guard. UConn has the clear edge to make it to Phoenix as a 1 seed, but with teams like Illinois or Iowa state potentially in their path in the Elite Eight, it won’t be a cake walk. Illinois has an experienced star in Terrence Shannon and a supporting cast with toughness and focus. Iowa State has been one of the hotter teams in the country having won the big 12 title and could cause problems for UConn with the top rated defense (efficiency) in the country per KenPom.
Sweet 16 Sleeper
Drake Bulldogs
The Missouri Valley conference champion Drake Bulldogs are back in the dance after being the No. 12 seed last year and losing in the first round. Drake has another high-scoring offense which averages 80.5 points per game. Led by 21.8 points per game scorer Tucker DeVries, the Bulldogs will have a tough test against Washington State before potentially taking on two seed Iowa State. Drake will need to rely on its offense and rebounding to pull off back-to-back upsets, but the the path is there. Drake will need to hunker down on defense against a solid Washington State team if it wants a chance of making the Sweet 16. The Bulldogs gave up 70.5 points per game and should not be looking to get into a scoring battle with the Cougars in a March Madness environment. Washington State hasn’t allowed 80 points since Feb. 3, so Drake’s offense will need to be on its best game in this one. In my opinion, either one of these teams has the potential to take down Iowa State and dance their way to the Sweet 16.
Final Four Sleeper
Auburn Tigers
The SEC champions are entering the tournament as a No. 4 seed after going 27-7 on the year. Auburn has one of the highest scoring offenses in the country with 83.3 points per game, and it only gives up 68. As I mentioned earlier, the Tigers may have the best chance out of any team to beat UConn in this region. While I wouldn’t be surprised at any early upset for Auburn, I could just as easily see this talented team led by Johni Broome make a run at the Final Four. Coming into the tournament on a six-game winning streak, Auburn is a team that nobody wants to face in this tournament.
Top 1st Round Matchup
No. 7 Washington State vs. No. 10 Drake
Washington State’s defense versus Drake’s high powered offense will be one of the most interesting matchups in the entire bracket in round one. Although the lower seed, Drake comes into the matchup as a slight one-point favorite. Washington State allows just 66.9 points per game and has revved up its defense as of late. The key to this game will be whether the Cougars can limit the Bulldogs on defense and if not, whether they can score enough to pull out the victory. If Drake can score over 75 points, it should have an excellent chance. Washington State has beaten a tough Arizona team twice this year, so it should be prepared to handle the Bulldogs, but if their shooting is on, this could be an intense game with a classic March feel to it to wrap up Thursday’s games.
Best Under the Radar Matchup
No. 8 FAU vs. No. 9 Northwestern
Last year’s Cinderella Final Four team, FAU, is back in the tournament for a matchup against the Big Ten’s Northwestern. This matchup should be a close and intriguing one, with FAU’s offense looking to outmatch the Wildcats, who rank 192nd in points per game. If Northwestern can slow down the Owls’ offense, it will make this an interesting game. The rebounding category favors FAU, which will be another key area in this matchup due to the struggles of the Wildcats in that area. The matchup of Boo Buie against Johnell Davis could determine how this game goes. Northwestern will need Buie to be even better than he’s already been this year if it wants a chance to advance to the next round.
Top Potential Player Matchup
Johnell Davis vs. Boo Buie
Boo Buie averages just one more point than Johnell Davis this year and the two will go head-to-head in the first round of the tournament with both of their teams needing them to step up to the challenge. Davis is a strong guard that can get to the rim at will, or find his stroke from outside to hurt teams from all over the court. On the other side, Buie is a pure scorer who can shoot it from deep, shooting 44.3 percent from 3-point range and can also make plays for his team.
Top 5 NBA Draft Prospects
1. Stephon Castle (UConn)
6-foot-6 freshman guard Stephon Castle has been a work in progress but making real strides of late. Castle has great size and can defend well and score at the rim along with making plays for his teammates all over the court. His versatility and potential makes him one of the most intriguing prospects to watch in the tournament.
2. Terrence Shannon (Illinois)
The Illini Senior guard was suspended and then brought back and after struggling some at first has been on an absolute tear. He scored a combined 74 points over his last two games and is considered one of the top wing prospects for this year’s draft. A strong tourney performance would give him a great chance to be a lottery pick.
3. Jaxson Robinson (BYU)
Jaxson Robinson is a 6-foot-7 guard who has emerged as an NBA prospect this season. Robinson averaged 13.8 points this season and has tremendous size and skill for a guard of his stature. gaining confidence and consistency will be the key to unlocking his potential.
4. Donovan Clingan (UConn)
Donovan Clingan is a 7-foot-2 center with great size and toughness. Clingan, can protect the rim and rebound at a high level, something many teams in the NBA are looking for. His mobility and quickness could see some improvement over time as bigs generally take the longest to fill into their bodies. A strong tourney performance and UConn winning it all could help vault him into the first round of the draft,
5. Tristen Newton (UConn)
Making it three out of five for UConn is Tristen Newton. Newton is averaging a team-high 15.2 points, seven rebounds and 6 assists this year, improving his stock in his senior season. He’s got great size for the lead guard position and edges out teammates Cam Spencer and Alex Karaban for the 5th spot.
