2009-10 Pac-10 Conference PreviewBy: Nick_Prevenas

The Pac-10 is typically one of the strongest basketball conferences in the nation, but with many of the league’s most talented players now suiting up in the NBA and a couple premier programs undergoing massive facelifts (some with more success than others), many pundits expect a down year for the conference. Only No. 13 Cal and No. 14 Washington appear in the preseason top-25, with former powerhouses UCLA and Arizona dealing with a serious youth movement. The Pac-10 has gotten used to sending six (sometimes seven) teams to the Big Dance. This year, look for that number to be around four (maybe even just three). Despite the lack of surefire NBA talent on these rosters, the Pac-10 still employs some of the nation’s best coaches, with UA’s Sean Miller joining a fraternity that already includes Ben Howland, Lorenzo Romar, Mike Montgomery, Herb Sendek and up-and-comer Craig Robinson.

1. California Golden Bears

2008-09 Regular Season Record: 22-10

2008-09 Conference Record: 11-7

Postseason: NCAA First Round – Lost to Maryland 84-71

Outlook: The Bears just edge Washington in this preseason poll, thanks to the jaw-dropping amount of experience this squad will be able to put on the floor. In this one-and-done era, it’s nearly impossible to find any sort of roster continuity, but that’s exactly what Cal has accomplished. Few teams in all of college basketball boast a better backcourt. Jerome Randle and Patrick Chistopher can light it up against anyone, and both will contend for All-Pac-10 First Team honors. Forward Theo Robertson is a capable scorer and will be asked to do much more dirty work on the glass, along with Jamal Boykin. This squad’s calling card will continue to be the 3-point shot, as the Bears buried 42.7 percent of their attempts last year. The Bears have also added center Markhuri Sanders-Frison, who should help against bigger teams with a legit low-post scoring options, not that there are many of those in this conference. Look for Cal and Washington to battle down to the wire for the Pac-10 title.

Key Departures: C Jordan Wilkes (4.7 ppg, 4 rpg)

Newcomers: G Brandon Smith, F Bak Bak, C Markhuri Sanders-Frison (transfer – JuCo)

Top Returnees: G Jerome Randle (18.3 ppg, 5 apg, .463 3pt), G Patrick Christopher (14.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg), F Theo Robertson (13.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg, .487 3pt), F Jamal Boykin (9.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg)

Non-conference games to watch: Nov. 19 vs. Syracuse, Nov. 20 vs. North Carolina, Ohio State (Coaches versus Cancer), Dec. 22 at Kansas

2. Washington Huskies

2008-09 Regular Season Record: 25-8

2008-09 Conference Record: 14-4

Postseason: NCAA Second Round – Lost to Purdue 76-74

Outlook: Washington brings back the electrifying Isaiah Thomas and will pair him with the Pac-10’s most talented incoming freshman to form one dynamic backcourt. Abdul Gaddy has to be considered the early front-runner for Pac-10 Freshman of the Year honors. His presence will allow Thomas to play off the ball and focus on scoring. That duo is going to be a handful for any team Washington faces. Throw in defensive stalwart Venoy Overton (my pick for Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year) and Washington might have one of the best three-guard rotation in the nation, even after losing veteran Justin Dentmon to graduation. The Huskies’ issues will come on the glass, however, after losing rebounding machine Jon Brockman. Lorenzo Romar will look to lanky forward Quincy Pondexter and bulked-up Matthew Bryan-Amaning to grab more rebounds. Pondexter has shown the ability to be an outstanding player in this conference, if not necessarily the consistency to dominate on a game-by-game basis. If the Huskies find a way to stay competitive on the glass, they’ll battle Cal for the league title and might win a couple of games in the NCAA Tournament behind that stellar backcourt.

Key Departures: F Jon Brockman (14.9 ppg, 11.5 rpg), G Justin Dentmon (14.4 ppg, 2.5 apg)

Newcomers: G Abdul Gaddy, G C.J. Wilcox, F Clarence Trent, F Tyreese Breshers

Top Returnees: G Isaiah Thomas (15.5 ppg, 2.6 apg), F Quincy Pondexter (12.1 ppg, 5.9 rpg), F Matthew Bryan-Amaning (6 ppg, 4 rpg), G Venoy Overton (5.8 ppg, 2 rpg, 2 apg)

Non-conference games to watch: Dec. 12 vs. Georgetown (John Wooden Classic), Dec. 22 vs. Texas A&M

3. UCLA Bruins

2008-09 Regular Season Record: 25-8

2008-09 Conference Record: 13-5

Postseason: NCAA Second Round – Lost 89-69 to Villanova

Outlook: A run of three straight Final Fours came to an end last season at UCLA. At some point, the cupboard was going to be empty and Ben Howland was going to need to stock up again. Even though this team isn’t likely to match Howland’s squads when they were a Final Four regular, it sure says a lot that a UCLA squad in rebuilding mode is still picked to finish third in the Pac-10 media poll and is currently given a No. 6 seed in Joe Lunardi’s first Bracketology. That’s the kind of respect people have for Howland. But in order for those predictions to come true, it’ll be up to Malcolm Lee to fulfill his vast potential. Lee didn’t see much action his freshman year, but he’s clearly UCLA’s most dynamic offensive talent and one of the nation’s quickest players. Nikola Dragovic and Michael Roll are each able to take over a game with their perimeter shooting, and incoming freshmen Tyler Honeycutt and Mike Moser will make an impact right away. Losing Darren Collison, Jrue Holiday, Josh Shipp and Alfred Aboya will hurt, but you can count on a Howland team to guard the heck out of you and pull out some games strictly on the defensive side of the court.

Key Departures: G Darren Collison, G Jrue Holiday, F Josh Shipp, C Alfred Aboya

Newcomers: F Tyler Honeycutt, F Mike Moser, F Reeves Nelson, F Brendan Lane, C Anthony Stover, F Alex Schrempf

Top Returnees: G Malcolm Lee (3.2 ppg, 1.5 apg), F Nikola Dragovic (9.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg), G Michael Roll (6.7 ppg, 1.4 apg, .515 3pt), F Drew Gordon (3.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg), F James Keefe (3.0 ppg, 3.4 rpg)

Non-conference games to watch: Dec. 6 vs. Kansas, Dec. 12 vs. Mississippi State (John Wooden Classic), Dec. 19 at Notre Dame

4. Arizona Wildcats

2008-09 Regular Season Record: 19-13

2008-09 Conference Record: 9-9

Postseason: NCAA Sweet 16 – Lost to Louisville 103-64

Outlook: Team Turmoil is finally back on the right track. The awkward transition phase from the Lute Olson era to what we see today is finally behind this program, and athletic director Jim Livengood hit a home run when he hired Sean Miller away from Xavier. In his short time at Arizona, Miller restocked the program with a terrific freshman class (thanks in large part to the scandal surrounding USC) and convinced Nic Wise to return for his senior campaign, where he’ll be a dark horse in the Pac-10 Player of the Year race. Few players mean more to their teams than Wise to Arizona. He’s destructive off the dribble and a dead-eye shooter who’ll benefit greatly from a system that worked wonders for Drew Lavender. Without Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger, it’ll be up to Jamelle Horne to help Wise shoulder the scoring load. Expect the uber-athletic Horne to make a huge leap this year and be one of the conference’s better two-way players. The aforementioned freshman class will be thrown into the fire right away, with each of the five guys capable of playing big minutes right away. In addition, sophomores Kyle Fogg and Brendon Lavender give this team more depth than previously anticipated. Fogg came out of nowhere to qualify for the All-Pac-10 freshman team (honorable mention), and could be the team’s best on-ball defender. It might take a few weeks for this young squad to find its stride, but Miller’s Wildcats will be tough to beat in February and might sneak into the school’s 26th consecutive NCAA Tournament.

Key Departures: C Jordan Hill (18.3 ppg, 11 rpg), F Chase Budinger (18.2 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 3.4 apg), G Zane Johnson (4.6 ppg, 1.8 rpg, transferred to Hawaii)

Newcomers: F Solomon Hill, G Lamont “MoMo” Jones, C Kyryl Natyazhko, F Derrick Williams, F Kevin Parrom

Top Returnees: G Nic Wise (15.7 ppg, 4.6 apg, .415 3pt), F Jamelle Horne (6.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg), F Kyle Fogg (6.1 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.7 apg)

Non-conference games to watch: Nov. 23-25, EA Sports Maui Invitational (Wisconsin, Gonzaga), Dec. 2 vs. UNLV, Dec. 6 at Oklahoma, Dec. 23 vs. NC State, Dec. 28 vs. BYU.

5. Oregon State Beavers

2008-09 Regular Season Record: 13-17

2008-09 Conference Record: 7-11

Postseason: College Basketball Invitational Champions (defeated UTEP in best-of-three series)

Outlook: After spending most of the decade at or near the bottom of the Pac-10 standings, Craig Robinson has quietly turned this into a competitive program, winning seven conference games (often with much less talent than their opponents) and winning the CBI title, for what that’s worth. Last year’s team was much better toward the end of the season than it was at the beginning, which is typically the mark of a well-coached team. Oregon State returns its top four scorers, and that experience and continuity will give it a significant leg up in a conference that has seen so much turnover. Calvin Haynes is one of those do-everything types, with Roeland Schaftenaar taking the title of “most awkwardly effective player in the Pac-10.” This team won’t wow anyone with athleticism, but itll grind out a few wins against more talented teams.

Key Departures: G Ricky Claitt (7.4 ppg, 2 rpg, .471 3pt)

Newcomers: G Jared Cunningham, G Roberto Nelson, C Angus Brandt, C Joe Burton, F Rhys Murphy, G Chris Richard, F David Sturner

Top Returnees: G Calvin Haynes (13 ppg, 3 rpg), F Roeland Schaftenaar (10.5 ppg, 4 rpg, 3.3 apg), F Seth Tarver (8 ppg, 5.4 rpg), G Lathen Wallace (7.9 ppg, 2 rpg), F Omari Johnson (6.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg)

Non-conference games to watch: Nov. 15 at Texas Tech, Nov. 28 at George Washington, Dec. 4 vs. Colorado, Dec. 23 vs. Fresno State.

6. Oregon Ducks

2008-09 Regular Season Record: 8-23

2008-09 Conference Record: 2-16

Postseason: None

Outlook: It was a year to forget in Oregon. Ernie Kent’s Ducks managed only two conference wins, with the squad’s many freshman struggling to adjust to big-time college hoops. It’ll be impossible for the Ducks to have a worse 2009-10 season. In fact, I might have them ranked a bit low. This could be the sleeper team in the Pac-10 this year. Tajuan Porter is as good of a scorer as anyone in this league, and last year’s freshman class should be much more prepared for what it takes to win this year. Michael Dunigan is among the strongest big men in this conference, and Garrett Sim is lurking as a terrific shooter/playmaker. LeKendric Longmire and Joevan Catron are tough match-ups, as well. This squad’s biggest obstacle is learning how to win. The talent and the athleticism is there, but the confidence that comes with winning is still a work-in-progress. But if this squad gets on a roll, it’s poised to make a huge leap up the Pac-10 standings.

Key Departures: G Kamyron Brown (4.5 ppg), G Churchill Odia (3.2 ppg)

Newcomers: F Jamil Wilson, F E.J. Singler

Top Returnees: G Tajuan Porter (15.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg), F LeKendric Longmire (9.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg), C Michael Dunigan (8.4 ppg, 4.6 rpg), F Joevan Catron (7.2 ppg, 6.6 rpg), G Garrett Sim (6.8 ppg, 2 apg), G Matt Humphrey (4.4 ppg, 0.8 apg)

Non-conference games to watch: Nov. 13-15 BTI Tip-off Tournament, Dec. 5 at Missouri, Dec. 12 vs. Saint Mary’s.

7. Arizona State Sun Devils

2008-09 Regular Season Record: 24-9

2008-09 Conference Record: 11-7

Postseason: NCAA Second Round – Lost to Syracuse 78-67

Outlook: ASU finds itself in a similar position as its in-state rival, losing its two most productive players to the NBA. You could make the argument that nobody meant more to his team than James Harden did last year. A team doesn’t lose a guy that talented and versatile and simply plug in someone new. Losing Pendergraph will be devastating, as well. He was the team’s best rebounder and shot-blocker, as well as a devastating offensive threat on the block (66 percent field goal percentage?!?). But Herb Sendek does have the quietly effective Rihards Kuksiks back to lead the way with Derek Glasser and Ty Abbot. This is a team that, much like Cal, you’ll never want to leave alone behind the 3-point line. The key for this year’s team will be Abbott’s ability to rediscover his shooting stroke from his freshman year. Abbott’s subpar sophomore campaign is what kept this team from winning the Pac-10. But between this squad’s ability to shoot the ball, Kuksiks’ playmaking ability and Sendek’s suffocating zone defensive schemes, the Sun Devils will battle the Wildcats for position on the NCAA tournament bubble.

Key Departures: G James Harden (20.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 4.2 apg), F Jeff Pendergraph (14.5 ppg, 8.2 rpg, .660 FG)

Newcomers: G Trent Lockett, C Ruslan Pateev, F Victor Rudd, G Brandon Thompson, G Demetrius Walker, G Marcus Jackson, C Alex English

Top Returnees: F Rihards Kuksiks, (10.3 ppg, 3.8 rpg, .443 3pt), G Derek Glasser (8.8 ppg, 4.8 apg, .413 3pt), G Ty Abbott (7.1 ppg, 4 rpg)

Non-conference games to watch: Nov. 25-27, NIT Season Tip-off, Dec. 3 vs. Baylor, Dec. 8 at BYU, Dec. 19 vs. San Diego State.

8. USC Trojans

2008-09 Regular Season Record: 21-12

2008-09 Conference Record: 9-9

Postseason: NCAA Second Round – Lost to Michigan State 74-69

Outlook: Yikes. Tim Floyd couldn’t have possibly done more damage to this program. After the OJ Mayo scandal broke, Floyd (and many of USC’s recruits) left treadmarks getting out of USC. Now, it’ll be up to Kevin O’Neill to clean up the mess. Ask any Arizona fan how he handled his interim year in Tucson how that’ll go. By the end of that season, he’d alienated his assistant coaches, forced Chase Budinger to play power forward and nearly blew the school’s record NCAA Tournament streak (even with Budinger, Jordan Hill and Jerryd Bayless on his roster). In addition to all of the recruits that decommitted, the Trojans will be without Taj Gibson, DeMar Derozan and Daniel Hackett. Poor Dwight Lewis. Despite all of the turmoil, expect to see this team play strong man-to-man defense, with Lewis and North Carolina transfer Alex Stepheson giving them a puncher’s chance against most teams in this conference. But another NCAA Tournament berth is going to be next to impossible.

Key Departures: F Taj Gibson (14.3 ppg, 9 rpg, 2.9 bpg), G DeMar DeRozan (13.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg), G Daniel Hackett (12.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 4.7 apg),

Newcomers: F Alex Stepheson (transfer – North Carolina), Evan Smith, F James Boyd, G Daniel Munoz, G Tyler Sugiyama, C Davis Rozitis

Top Returnees: G Dwight Lewis (14.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.1 apg), F Leonard Washington (6.1 ppg, 4.2 rpg)

Non-conference games to watch: Dec. 3 at Texas, Dec. 5 at Georgia Tech, Dec. 19 vs. Tennessee, Dec. 22-25 Diamond Head Classic at Honolulu.

9. Washington State Cougars

2008-09 Regular Season Record: 17-15

2008-09 Conference Record: 8-10

Postseason: NIT First Round – Lost to Saint Mary’s 68-57

Outlook: The Cougars didn’t just lose their two-best players from last season (Taylor Rochestie and Aron Baynes), but also lost their terrific coach Tony Bennett to the University of Virginia. Even though his plodding, slow-the-clock-and-limit-possessions style wasn’t much fun to watch, it was certainly effective. Washington State was always better on the court than it appeared to be on paper. Only time will tell if incoming coach Ken Bone will be as successful. He doesn’t have much returning talent, except for streaky scorer Klay Thompson. Look for the sharp-shooting Thompson to have a monster statistical year, perhaps even approaching 20 points per game, but for the Cougars to struggle as they work in more than a half-dozen new faces into this program.

Key Departures: G Taylor Rochestie (13.2 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 4.5 apg), C Aron Baynes (12.7 ppg, 7.5 rpg), F Caleb Forrest (6.7 ppg, 3.3 rpg, .500 3pt), F Daven Harmeling (3.8 ppg, 1.6 rpg)

Newcomers: G Anthony Brown, G Reggie Moore, F Brock Motum, G Xavier Thames, C Steven Bjornstad, FJames Watson, G John Allen, G Austin Bragg, G Ben Loewen (transfer – Whitworth)

Top Returnees: G Klay Thompson (12.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2 apg, .412 3pt), F DeAngelo Casto (4.4 ppg, 4 rpg), F Nikola Koprivica (3.1 ppg, 2.4 rpg)

Non-conference games to watch: Nov. 25-28 Great Alaska Shootout, Dec. 2 at Gonzaga, Dec. 5 at Kansas State, Dec. 22 vs. LSU (at Seattle, Cougar Hardwood Classic).

10. Stanford Cardinal

2008-09 Regular Season Record: 18-13

2008-09 Conference Record: 6-12

Postseason: College Basketball Invitational third round – Lost to Oregon State 65-62

Outlook: It’s going to be a long year in Stanford. There aren’t any 7-foot twin brothers with NBA potential coming to save the day, either. Anthony Goods and Lawrence Hill were two of the most underrated performers in the Pac-10 the past three years, and the Cardinal will struggle mightily as they try to replace their numbers. The squad will also miss Mitch Johnson’s playmaking and defensive abilities. Without Landry Fields, this team might’ve replicated Oregon’s struggles from a year ago. Second-year coach Johnny Dawkins certainly has his work cut out for him this year. Look for Josh Owens to have a breakout year, but there isn’t much depth in the front line behind him.

Key Departures: G Anthony Goods (16.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg), F Lawrence Hill (13.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 2.2 apg), G Mitch Johnson (6.6 ppg, 4.5 apg)

Newcomers: F Andy Brown, G Gabriel Harris

Top Returnees: F Landry Fields (12.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg), C Josh Owens (6.9 ppg, 3.6 rpg), G Jeremy Green (6.4 ppg)

Non-conference games to watch: Nov. 24-25 Cancun Challenge (Virginia, Kentucky), Dec. 16 vs. Oklahoma State, Dec. 22 at Texas Tech.

Top Five Pac-10 players

Jerome Randle (Player of the Year)
Nic Wise
Patrick Christopher
Isaiah Thomas
Malcolm Lee

Keep an eye on these five

Tajuan Porter
Jamelle Horne
Rihards Kuksiks
Klay Thompson
Calvin Haynes

Pac-10 All-Freshman Team

Abdul Gaddy (Freshman of the Year)
Solomon Hill
Derrick Williams
Tyler Honeycutt
Mike Moser