If there is a region that epitomizes how crazy and exciting the 2022 NCAA Tournament has been, it certainly isn’t this one. All four of the top seeds advanced to the second weekend, but don’t think it was easy. Each team faced a second-half deficit in the Round of 32 while Duke and Texas Tech faced deficits in the final three minutes before squeaking out victories to avoid upsets. Everyone loves the madness of March, but sometimes it is nice to have great match ups with great teams, which the West region so graciously provided for us.
No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Arkansas
How Gonzaga made it here: One thing is for sure… it wasn’t easy. The Bulldogs survived a pair of upset bids from No. 16 Georgia State and No. 9 Memphis who both held the lead at some time in the second half. Drew Timme had to play hero in both games by averaging 21 second-half points on the first weekend to create separation and get his Zags into the second weekend. Andrew Nembhard controlled the game and provided the perfect balance of poise and pace to lead his team to their seventh consecutive Sweet 16.
How Arkansas made it here: Another thing is for sure… it wasn’t pretty. After surviving a massive upset bid from the Vermont Catamounts, the Razorbacks played the ugliest game of the NCAA Tournament and somehow found a way to win anyway. They shot 14-51 from the field against New Mexico State without their bench providing a single made shot (0-7) in the displeasing Round of 32 win. They will need to play considerably better if they want any chance at knocking off the top overall seed.
Key to the game: Foul trouble. Neither team likes to go to their bench, especially in the frontcourt, and this game could very well come down to which team’s big men can stay on the floor. Eric Musselman reduced his rotation to just seven guys with only Jaylin Williams standing above 6’6. If Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren can stay on the floor and control the interior, the Razorbacks won’t stand much of a chance unless they shoot 60% from the perimeter.
Matchup to watch: Drew Timme vs. Jaylin Williams
I mentioned it above, but the fight on the interior is the most important aspect of this matchup Thursday night. We’ve seen Timme explode in both NCAA Tournament games so far and the Zags would not be here without him. Williams is an elite, athletic defender who can stick with him and has the potential to mitigate his impact. The Zags will have to turn to perimeter shooting, which they haven’t done well so far this tournament, if Williams can shut Timme down in the post. If he can do that, the Razorbacks have a fighting chance and could pull off a major upset to get to their second straight Elite Eight.
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 3 Texas Tech
How Duke made it here: Athleticism. The Blue Devils are the most athletic team in the nation, which is no surprise when you consider that all five starters are potential first-round picks. The size and speed of the Devils rivals any team in the nation and they will need to show it if they want to survive the Red Raiders this weekend.
How Texas Tech made it here: Defense. We already knew they have one of the best defenses in the nation, and they proved it with the way they slowed down the Irish in round 2. Mark Adams and his disruptive defensive style slowed down a potent Irish attack, holding them to 53 points on 32% shooting from the floor. Adams is in his first season at the helm, but he has this team playing as well as they ever have and it could get them back to a second national championship in the last three tournaments.
Key to the game: How well Texas Tech defends isolations. Blake Wesley started attacking the Red Raiders and Bryson Williams in isolations in the middle of the floor and had some real success doing so. If Coach K can get his athletic ball-handlers switched onto Williams and attack him like Wesley did, Duke could run away with this one. The one way to attack this defense is to use athleticism to your advantage off the dribble and that is one of the greatest strengths of this Blue Devil offense. Keep an eye on these 1-on-1 matchups as the game progresses on Thursday night.
Matchup to watch: Paolo Banchero vs. Bryson Williams
Assuming these two matchup against one another, the Blue Devils won’t have to work for switches to get their best player lined up against the defender they want to attack. Williams is not a bad defender, but you could see that the Irish wanted to attack him as much as possible late in the game. Banchero plays his best offense while attacking in isolation and is a smart enough passer to find his teammates if he is doubled in these situations. If Adams chooses not to double, look for Coach K to continuously call his true freshman’s number in the biggest game of his career.
Final Four Prediction
Everyone in the world wants to see a rematch of Gonzaga vs. Duke after how much fun it was the first time and I think we will get our wish. Surviving the first weekend was a huge test for the Blue Devils, as they’ve played their best against good teams and fell victim to upsets against worse teams. Now that there are only good teams left, they are right where they want to be and I think it will get them to the Final Four one last time under Coach K.
