By Mike Misek
2010/11 Dallas Mavericks Payroll: $84 million
2010/11 NBA Salary Cap: $56.1 million
Roughly: $17.9 million over cap
Variables:
Dirk Nowitzki – ETO for $21.5 million
Erick Dampier – Non-guaranteed Team Option for $13.1 million
Brendan Haywood – Unrestricted Free Agent
J.J. Barea – Team Option for $1.8 million
Tim Thomas – Unrestricted Free Agent
Nick Calathes – Rights retained, NBA opt out clause in Panathinaikos contract
Ahmad Nivins – Rights retained, given ACL tear will likely play another season oversees
Draft Picks: 50th (from Oklahoma City) and possibly 57th overall pick (Indiana option)
The Good: The Mavericks will undoubtedly enter the summer over the cap. Even if Dirk Nowitzki opts out, Dallas will not renounce his rights meaning his cap hold would keep their payroll well above the $56.1 million cap. Erick Dampier’s non-guaranteed $13.1 million will be dangled as a trade chip to either chase a free agent or steal a big salaried player from a team attempting to cut payroll. They will also retain their roster exceptions meaning that Dallas will have the capacity to not only add a player whose salary is $16.4 million (125 percent + $100,000 of Dampier’s $13.1 million), but also the mid-level exception. Dallas already has the kind of depth that few teams could afford, but with a core exclusively in their 30s, they need it to get through the regular season. The importance of turning Dampier’s contract into a star in his 20s cannot be understated, but the value of that asset is great enough that they should be able to get a difference maker.
The Bad: Ignoring for a moment that Matt Carroll and DeShawn Stevenson will make $8 million next season to model suits, the Mavericks still have a lot of money tied up in role players. Shawn Marion has another four years on his deal. While he displayed a willingness to simply be the team’s defensive ace, $33 million is a lot of money for a defensive ace. Jason Kidd has value in that he is still a heady distributor who does not care if he gets any shots, but there is a liability in the same way energy big men who do not need touches can be liabilities. Kidd cannot stay in front of point guards and teams do not extend out when the ball kicks back out to him. While his shooting numbers from behind the arc have been pretty good since his return to Dallas, the team is limited in certain areas with him on the floor. Such is the life of a team with a 37-year old point guard. The organization needs to turn Dampier’s contract into a player because their lack of cap room going forward will limit them in future years.
The Future: The flexibility that comes with Dampier makes Dallas an interesting player in the summer of 2010. Not only would they be players in the max free agent market, they can also get a similar package of players who will not require five or six years deals if they take on a previously signed player in a trade. If Golden State – who is up for sale thereby opening the possibility of the organization wanting to pretty up their financial books – decided to cut salary, players such as Monta Ellis, Corey Maggette, and Ronny Turiaf could be put in a package. Charlotte, Indiana, New Orleans, Orlando, and Philadelphia will either be up against or over the projected $67.1 million luxury tax threshold. Players like Tyson Chandler, Boris Diaw, Nazr Mohammed, Mike Dunleavy, Danny Granger, Troy Murphy, Marcin Gortat, Brandon Bass, Mickael Pietrus, Andre Iguodala, Elton Brand, Sam Dalembert, Peja Stojakovic, Emeka Okafor, or David West could be the financial centerpiece of a deal. As the draft approaches, Dallas could use Dampier’s contract to get a player and a pick. With the success Milwaukee has had this season, would they be interested in packaging their first round pick (15th overall) with Michael Redd in order to clear up cap flexibility? Would Dallas be interested in such a package? What about if Philadelphia offered Elton Brand? Would New Orleans part ways with their first round pick (11) if it meant getting themselves safely under the luxury tax?
The long shot option would be if Dallas decided to break apart its core and start over. It is such a long shot that it seems outside the realm of possibilities, but what if Dirk and the franchise decided to part ways? If Dirk was to be reunited with Steve Nash in Phoenix, Dallas might be able to come away with Amare Stoudemire in a sign-and-trade. Stoudemire is four years younger than Nowitzki. They would then also be able to use Dampier’s contract to bring in another starter or two who are in their twenties. Caron Butler and DeShawn Stephenson will be expiring contracts. Jason Terry’s contract is best described as being partially expiring as only $5 million of his deal is guaranteed for 2011-12. If Donnie Nelson and Mark Cuban decided to rebuild, it is not an absurd thought that they could do so quickly and effectively. 2009 first round pick (25) Rodrigue Beabouis appears to be a keeper with nice upside for the future.
Good article
as a Mavs fan I think you made many good points (and unlike many writers you know all the mavs contracts absolutely right)
the mavs won’t rebuild unless Dirk said that he wants to leave,in such a case it will be a S&T deal
as for improving the team with Dirk,mavs main problem is in D.Nelson head,while he is a great GM ,he said b4 that he always prefers Veterans over youth ,the team made it clear they want to win immediately ,and that lead to many mistakes,the trade for Kidd,while we can make argument that Kidd us better for the mavs than Harris it s difficult to deny we have overpaid for Kidd
also we had only one 1st round pick between 2007-2010 ,I mean the mavs could have get many studs with the 21st pick in 2008 draft(Ibaka for example) and they never even tried to do their job in the draft and even passed on some available studs they could get in the 2nd round(Marc Gasol-Morrow) and 2009 draft was the only exception
also we always look for a fast fixation etc
what do the Mavs need is to look for the best available pieces even if they need some time ,they need to get younger ,we need to stop overpaying players thinking that this makes us attractive for the bigger names,Dampier contract didn’t make the Mavs better team
I really hope we can trade up in the draft,hope we get Kevin Seraphin or any young good player to help us
Eddie Sefko from the dallasnews is expecting the mavs to but a pick b/c it will be at least fun for th fans after watching Roddy B success ,well I wish it is true(but not just doing it for fun)
MFFL no more?
I have been a Mavericks fan for years, dating back to the Nowitzki/Nash/Finley days. BUT over the past few years I’ve realized that I am a waaaaaay bigger Dirk Nowitzki than I am an actual Mavericks fan. I’ve watched them fail time and time again, and truthfully I was thinking if Dirk was EVER going to win a championship that it would have to have been this year. Dallas’ roster reminded me of the one in 2003-04 season I believe or whenever it was when they had their “big 3” along with Antawn Walker and Antoine Jamison. It was a roster composed of pretty good players who just couldn’t make it happen. It seems like they’ve always had a win now type of mentality but don’t win. Kidd, Terry, Butler, Marion, Nowitzki, Haywood, Barea and Beaubois should have been able to get it done. Role players like Stevenson and Carroll didn’t get to play not to metion the failed season of Tim Thomas. They just seemed like a joke, I had faith in them. I really thought they had what it took this year but no, the one team I felt comfortable with them matching up with in the playoffs was San An and they couldn’t even get past them. Granted this year’s playoffs were pretty strange with “contenders” like Denver and Cleaveland also got knocked out early. My wish is that Nowitzki signs somewhere other than Dallas and Phoenix and a player such as LeBron, Bosh, or Wade don’t get sucked into the warphole aka the glorified western confrence version of the New York Knicks of the few past years. I know they made it to the finals in 06′ but what have they done since? Lose and nothing else, I just don’t want my favorite player to be stuck with the “yeah he was good, but he never won it all” label but it might just be too late.
good article
The Mavericks should decide to rebuild. The team isn’t getting younger, they need an influx of young talent. Kidd is done in Dallas, Beaubois probably has learned alot from him last season and can start. Marion can be asked to do more. Nowitzki should be traded for the same reason KG left Minny. Butler and Terry are still very valuable trade pieces. Damp’s contract is worth alot. Should they choose to rebuild I don’t know if you could expect a down year. Mark Cuban is a 50 win owner. He’ll manage to revamp the roster and still win games. I mean this team has alot of stock value they just never synergized. The right moves could drastically change the future for Dallas. Last season Dallas worked a sign and trade for the Toronto FA Marion. The same two managements could work a trade moving Bosh to Dallas and leaving Toronto with value in return. I mean Amare was going to get traded to Cle. for JJ and Big Z. Seattle got a trade exception from Orlando. You don’t get alot for signing and trading but I think Toronto can pull some strings.