“Situational Analysis” is a series of articles that seeks to examine the circumstances that most often influence an NBA prospect’s success. Each player will be scored on a scale from 1-10 in four different categories: NBA-specific skill(s), fatal flaw(s), collegiate/overseas/pre-NBA environment, and ideal NBA ecosystem.
Ousmane Dieng is a 19-year-old point forward from France who averaged 8.9 points, 3.2 rebounds and 1.1 assists per game with the New Zealand Breakers. He is expected to be selected in the mid-to-late first round in the upcoming NBA Draft and as high as the late lottery. NBADraft.net currently has him projected at No. 19.
NBA-Specific Skills
Sometimes, I wish I was an agent for NBA players. I’m certain it’s a stressful, cutthroat, ruthlessly competitive work environment with many sleepless nights, but it would be such a blast coming up with various sales pitches for your clients in the weeks leading up to the draft.
If I represented Ousmane Dieng, I would be such a pest. I would cut together every one of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s pre-draft highlight packages – back when he was a skinny 6-9 kid playing in empty gyms – and telling every front office “You don’t want to be the team passing on the next Giannis, right?”
Is Dieng going to be the next Giannis? Almost certainly not. But do you want to be the team who blows it if Dieng blows up?
Let’s start with the handle. Dieng truly handles it like a guard in a stretched-out 6-10 frame. Unlike most taller ball handlers, Dieng keeps his dribble low and tight. He can use that handle to wiggle into tight spaces in the lane or separate from defenders to get off a variety of mid-lane floaters.
He shows decent vision and can see passes shorter guards can’t see. He is quite a weapon on the high screen-and-roll, as he shows a knack for effectively utilizing screens set in either direction.
Defensively, Dieng projects as a Nicolas Batum-style Swiss army knife, with the length to protect the rim and the quickness to hang with perimeter players. Dieng’s build is exactly what all 30 teams search for when filling out their rosters.
Unlike most super-raw prospects who haven’t played a ton of high-level competition, Dieng already shows a high basketball IQ and a variety of different skills. As one of the draft’s younger players, Dieng’s upside is practically unlimited.
On a scale from 1-10, Dieng’s playmaking upside is a 9.
Fatal Flaws
If the upside is through the roof, then Dieng’s floor is below the basement.
For every “next Giannis” we hear about during draft time, there are a dozen Bruno Caboclos. It’s so easy to get swept up in the idea of a 6-10 do-everything playmaking wizard that is also a stopper on defense that you start overlooking some significant concerns.
For starters, Dieng’s athleticism is best described as “above average,” but nobody is ever going to call him a “freak.” Dieng isn’t going to overwhelm NBA athletes – if anything, it will be the other way around for the first few years of his career.
Despite his shot creation abilities, the jumper itself is a work in progress. He was a sub-40% shooter in his lone season in New Zealand and hit only 27% of his attempts from 3. He’s a poor foul shooter (67%) as well, which is perhaps why he settles for so many floaters. He doesn’t want to take the ball all the way to the rim, absorb the contact, and try to knock down his free throws.
Throw in the struggles with turnovers (a negative assist/turnover ratio is unacceptable for a lead offensive initiator) and defensive awareness and Dieng might struggle to remain on an NBA roster if his real-world skills don’t match his theoretical abilities.
On a scale from 1 (not a concern) to 10 (serious hindrance), Dieng’s rawness rates at a 9.
Pre-NBA Setting
Dieng comes from a basketball family in France and was exposed to the top youth competition throughout his formative days. He started out as a point guard until he hit a massive growth spurt over the last 2-3 years. It’s likely that Dieng isn’t finished growing, either.
Last summer, several college programs and the G League Ignite tried to convince Dieng to join their ranks, but he opted for the development program with the New Zealand Breakers. He struggled mightily during the first half of the season while battling a wrist injury, but he really turned things around in his last 10-15 games, looking and playing much more like a lottery-level draft prospect.
His growth – both physically and confidence-wise – is staggeringly rapid. If he continues this trajectory, watch out.
On a scale from 1-10, Dieng’s pre-NBA career rates at an 8.
Ideal NBA Ecosystem
Patience. Patience, patience, patience. One more time for good measure: Patience.
Any team interested in Dieng must expect some growing pains in the first couple seasons. He is not a “win-now” draft pick – something several teams drafting in Dieng’s range are seeking. He is an “investment” pick in need of top-notch player development and strength/conditioning programs.
NBADraft.net currently has Dieng projected to go to the Minnesota Timberwolves, who are in the process of building something awfully exciting. This franchise is in the enviable position of winning now and building for the future. New head honcho Tim Connelly is one of the league’s best international talent scouts. We’ll know the hype around Dieng is real if Connelly shows interest.
Connelly’s old squad in Denver could take a long, hard look at Dieng, as well. Nikola Jokic loves to play alongside other high-IQ players, and Dieng could develop into the kind of smart ball-mover who quickly endears himself to Jokic. The Nuggets could also use a bit of insurance at the wing in case Michael Porter’s injury concerns continue to linger.
The Memphis Grizzlies provide another nice fit. Dieng’s game bares a striking resemblance to Kyle Anderson’s and the Grizz have an incredible track record with player development.
On a scale from 1-10, Dieng’s situational dependence is a 10. He could enjoy a long, fruitful NBA career if he lands in the right spot during these key developmental years, or he could be out of the league prior to his second contract if he finds himself in the wrong situation.
