So a little over a quarter into the 2015 NBA season and the only thing that seems certain about this heavily anticipated rookie class is that they can’t wait until 2016 to show us what they can do. The 2015 NBA season will undoubtedly have several themes before its end, but for this group of first-timers, the 2014-’15 season will go down as the year of the injured rook.
If an entire rookie class could somehow earn a nickname, this 2015 group would undoubtedly be dubbed the DNP mob, or perhaps the need Ice-men, or maybe the M*A*S*H* brothers. Of the top 14 picks in the 2014 draft, three rookies have already been eliminated for the season; Jabari Parker (the 2nd overall selection), Joel Embiid (3rd), and Julius Randle (7th). Another four have missed significant time with Aaron Gordon (4th) out indefinitely with a broken foot, Noah Vonleh (9th) is sidelined with a sports hernia, Doug McDermott (11th) is out indefinitely with a leg injury, and Marcus Smart (6th) has missed games with an ankle injury. So following a collective visit to the training room by essential half of the lottery, this crop of NBA youngsters has gone from exciting to somewhat underwhelming in a hurry. But despite all these injuries, someone must win the NBA rookie of the year award, the question now is just who? In what has become some weird, Hunger Games-esque, battle of attrition, the rookie of the year may simply be the last standing option. And right now your front-runner, in what has become a one man race, is the mercurial Andrew Wiggins.
This isn’t meant as a knock on Wiggins, he was the first overall selection for a reason, and he’s been about as maddeningly enticing as expected. On a play-to-play basis you’ll get a collection of moments that make you believe him a future star, and moments that make you believe he could just be an above average player at best; being a Wiggins fan is like being the guy who is best friends with the hottest girl in school, there are times that give you hope, and times that crush your soul. But coming on the heels of a season in which the awarding of Michael Cater-Williams as rookie of the year seemed more just an awarding because somebody has to win the award, rather than a situation where Carter-Williams was awarded due to being particularly impressive, its unfortunate that we’re mired in another season with no true standout rookies; even Parker, whose exuberance was clearly contagious, was averaging a somewhat underwhelming 12.6 point per game before his season-ending injury.
With all the injuries, and the rampant underperformance of those rookies that have stayed healthy, Wiggins seems to be the only viable option, and that viability is now tethered to his health. With the loss of Jabari, the clear front runner for the award before he tore his ACL, Wiggins is in-line to have perhaps the most dubious Rookie of the Year season in the award’s 62 year history. In a draft that was lauded for its depth and star potential, the now ravaged rookie class is being led by Wiggins, whose pedestrian 12 points per game, .385 field goal percentage, and 30.7 minutes per game would all rank fourth lowest amongst rookie of the year honorees. While these numbers aren’t great, the real indictment on Wiggins and this beleaguered rookie class, is Wiggins -.7 win shares. If Wiggins were in fact to win rookie of the year with the averages he is currently posting (and at this point who else could you give it to?), he would be the only rookie to ever win the award with a negative win share, the prior worst was .3 by former Philadelphia Warrior Woody Sauldsberry in ’58; even Carter-Williams was worth at least one win (1.2 WS last season).
What’s sad is that with the decimation of viable rookie of the year candidates in Parker and Randle, Wiggins is basically the only choice for the award. K.J. McDaniels has been fun to watch, but he isn’t averaging double-figures. Hiw best competition likely will come from his teammate Zach Lavine has been sensational at times, but his credentials aren;t ROY worhty to this point (9 ppg, 39% fg, and tied with Nerlans Noel for first in turnovers per game at 2.3), granted he’s been thrown to the figurative NBA wolves playing PG, after not having played the position in college. Noel has been great defensively but he plays marginal offensive basketball for the consensus worst team in the league. And Nikola Mirotic is probably the most complete and effective rookie, but can someone who only averages 18.7 minutes per game, in a bench player’s role, really win the award? (The lowest ever minutes per game played by an award winner was 29.1 by MIke Miller in ’01)
While the injuries obviously play a huge part in the dampening of this rookie classes’ inaugural showing, the overall disappointing nature of the collective performance does seem to fall in-line with what is rounding out into a theme; rookies are coming in more raw and less prepared to contribute. Stats aside, the eye test will tell you that guys like Dante Exum, Elfrid Payton, Marcus Smart, and many other rookies have the physical abilities to play at the NBA level, but are players that are fatally flawed in ways that allow good defenses to mitigate their effectiveness. Payton, Exum, Smart and others may end up being great players, but not until they can become more than superior physical talents, because at the NBA level you are surrounded by the same ilk. Anthony Davis’ rookie season was fine, but it took his second year, when he honed his midrange jump shot, and his third year where he developed a secondary move off the pump-fake, before he became the beast we watch today. MCW’s game has more negatives than net positives, and most of his rookie class is till trying to figure out ways to be consistent NBA performers. The problem is that so many of these players are one-and-done products, or two years tops, that they can’t come in and make a splash, they lack the complete game to help winning teams.
This class may still end-up being one of the best ever, the talent is undeniable, and there is no true sample size to draw from because of all the injuries, but this season, and those who remain standing amongst the wounded may go down as one of the most underwhelming rookie classes since, well last year.
Wolves
The Wolves need to say f*** it and give Wiggins and LaVine 36 mpg. Also, Bennett should be getting 30 mpg to see what he can do.
Trade Martin, he is a valuable piece to a contender, and could be had for a late first round pick. (Maybe to OKC)
The Wolves suck, and the only way to get better in a few years is to play a lineup of
LaVine, Muhammad, Wiggins, Bennett, Dieng and let them all grow and learn together. Young, Pekovic, and Rubio will play valuable roles in the locker room, and when they return can also provide veteran leadership.
Wolves
The Wolves need to say f*** it and give Wiggins and LaVine 36 mpg. Also, Bennett should be getting 30 mpg to see what he can do.
Trade Martin, he is a valuable piece to a contender, and could be had for a late first round pick. (Maybe to OKC)
The Wolves suck, and the only way to get better in a few years is to play a lineup of
LaVine, Muhammad, Wiggins, Bennett, Dieng and let them all grow and learn together. Young, Pekovic, and Rubio will play valuable roles in the locker room, and when they return can also provide veteran leadership.