[2quick4uParticipant]

so the NBA draft is only 10 days away and the big question is: who should be the Nº1 pick?

although up to 4 names are in the conversation for the top spot (Ayton, Doncic, Bamba, Bagley) it seems most people have DeAndre Ayton as the very clear choice; so, should Ayton really be the Nº1 pick? i’d like to give my point of view from a wider look at the frame of reference to see if the view changes…

since the 90’s decade, the NBA has gone through a long path from the "1 star system" of those days, to the "big 4" of today’s game, but let’s get a closer look at this evolution to comprehend the point of this post:

in the 80’s, the NBA expanded globally in a way that it had never seen before thanks to the "conditions" and rules of the game, which resulted in the "showtime" embodied by the Lakers and the celtics, and featured a fast pace mixed with ball movement in a perfect balance that resulted in the emergence of the shiniest stars the NBA universe had ever seen.

but things changed drastically in the 90’s when the "conditions" finally changed after rules changed in 1981, as these were clarified to effectively outlaw anything that deviated from strict man to man defense; the effect of this was that a defender had to either be guarding his man or double teaming the ball, and as result of it the "star system" or "isolation game" materialized and MJ could finally emerge.

the NBA is no different than nature as we are part of it, and so like in this creation we live in, the "game screen" or the medium-substrate if you like, it changes if the general conditions change; less movement means cold, slower speed, condensation of mass and therefore solid matter, wich is what happened in the 90’s, that is, slower pace, no movement, more muscle and therefore an era dominated by bigs and defense. In the other hand, more movement means, hot, disjoin of mass and higher speed, which is what we have in today’s game, that is, fast pace, movement and an era dominated by offense and versatile players.

so in the 90’s, even though it was the golden era of bigs due to the "cold" conditions, the Bulls dominated the league as they had the best player for those conditions of "isolation game" and because they were as good and tough defensively as the best of them.

but when MJ retired in 1998, the conditions/rules were changed again, prohibiting physical contact and most important, eliminating "illegal defense" rules and adopting the less restrictive defensive 3 second rule, which meant no more "isolation game" allowed and therefore more passing and movement…NBA was moving from cold to heat, changing therefore the medium.

in these conditions the league moved from a 1 star system to a "2 stars system" and the league would be dominated for whom had the best 2 players, that is, the lakers with Kobe and Shaq, the heat with Shaq and wade and the lakers again with Kobe and Gasol.

at the end of the 00’s the changes of rules started to have more effect in the game; more passing and movement meant that in order to win you now needed more than 2 stars, so teams would create the so called "big 3’s". Boston 1st in 2008 and specially Lebron’s heat in early 10’s seemed the ones to understand the equation.

only 3 franchises in the last 30 have won a championship going against the "tendency of the nature" of the league, which is perfectly fine if you know how these laws work; these teams were the bad boy in 89-90 and again in 2004, the spurs and Rick Carlisle’s mavs in 2011, a team that understood the laws and applied them slowing the heat’s pace with a defensive full zone that resulted in a ring.

now in the mid-late 10’s, the fast movement and passing added to the "new trait" emerged from the changing rules in full effect mode, that is, the 3 point shot, resulted in the emergency of Steph Curry and the Warriors, that in order to keep competitive have been forced to grow to a "big 4".

so why i show all this stuff? because just like in nature, if we look close at the history of this "evolution" of the game, the teams that have been able to win championships are the ones that have adapted better to the general conditions…

so in order to beat the Warriors or reign in the next decade, you don’t need a big 3, 4 or 5; if we understand the laws, what a team needs is a "big 7-8", but that doesn’t mean 7-8 all-stars, it means 7-8 talented and versatile players that could start in any team, that is, you need depth and versatility, you need a TEAM…you need fast pace, more ball-movement than ever, efficiency, versatility in both ends and players that excel playing off ball, you need executors and not generators. The NBA is in full "hot mode", in the opposite extreme of the "1 star cold system" and super slow pace of the "thermometer".

for now, the Celtics seem like the best positioned in order to dominate the next decade, as they are building a very versatile TEAM.

versatility means that traditional PG and SG and traditional PF and C will disappear, that is, the extremes of the chain, that’s why positions are "merging"; some of them are adapting and will survive because of some specific traits but in the next decade will tend to disappear.

and what does all this have to do with the Nº1 draft pick owned by Phoenix?

because i think that if Phoenix selects Ayton, they will waste a unique opportunity and will become at best a 45-50 win team but not a championship team. Why?

because Ayton is a more "traditional" Center that has just adapted a little bit with that jumper, like Embiid, but is not the best option for the "new conditions" of the league; what is worse, he’s not a good defender nor rim protector so it makes it even worse and specially when phoenix plays a fast pace instead of a slow pace that would fit him best.

in my opinion, the best option for the Nº1 pick for the next decade are Bamba and Doncic. Bamba is trully the definition of a "modern Center" (guess why celtics want him); he’s everything you need in order to succeed in today’s condition as he covers as much space as Gobert, runs as fast as any body in the draft (3’04 in 3/4), can defend the P&R, doesn’t need the ball to score fast and easy and can stretch the floor…

the second option would be Doncic, but in order to select him it would be imperative to get a rim protector if not, the experiment won’t work and they’ll only win games in regular season.

in conclusion, i think that in order to win a championship a team has to understand the conditions ruling the game, and adapt to it faster than the rest just like history has shown, and i believe that Ayton as good as he is, is not the best option to win a championship under today’s laws.

 

[The GoatParticipant]

 So for those that arent going to read the novel above, ie everyone else, hes saying Bamba then Doncic as his second choice.

[RioRepParticipant]

 and have to say that this was by far the best post I’ve ever read in this site. And I’ve read a lot. 

[Andv1 WaitingParticipant]

Two things the Suns need to think about: What System do they want to run offensively and defensively?

and

Do they want to run something different to GSW and beat the league? GSW have two things don’t let them beat you in the 3rd quarter and get a lead and hold it. 2-3 teams have shown they can beat GSW. OKC with smash mouth basketball(except when K.D and Russ went ice cold) ,Houston where they run the exact same system and just had and unfortunate injury in CP3(who in my opinion was the difference) and Cavs who had the best player and a semi super team.

With that being said you seriously consider only 3 prospects: Bamba,JJR and Ayton. Luka type players I personally think are more easily acquirable via free agency or via trade.

You get Bamba if you want to run either a deviation of the Jazz system or the Orlando 1 in and four out .

You get Ayton if you want to Run a triangle,Similar system to the 76ers or maybe a smash mouth one like OKC.

You get JJjr if you want to run either a system similar to Pelicans or Raptors with Bosh.

But that is how I would make the choice who I am taking by choosing the player that fits my Star(booker) and System you think will maximize the talen.

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

[2quick4uParticipant]

 i think that is exactly the main reason why 95% of franchises fail when constructing a team, and that’s why i wrote this post proposing a whole different perspective when drafting a player.

if you start your team around the best player you have on your team "just because", without considering if that player is the best option to build around given the general conditons/rules the league has, then you will mortgage your future in a poorly constructed house from the foundations, which is what usually happens to franchises like Sacramento with Cousins for example.

if it happens that you end up with a Nº1 pick and you draft a player to fit "that type of franchise player" mentioned above, your house becomes even more unstable and start playing "tetris"; if finally you decide to play a "given system" to maximize the talent of those players, you are basically doomed to fail…

i consider teams should approach a totally different perspective starting by understanding the condition/rules that govern the nature of the league and build from there; from there you decide which direction you take: either you adapt sooner than the rest to the tendency of the force (GSW) or you take the opposite side of the force but understanding what needs to be done from there (SPURS).

then you look at the big picture and look for the "collective numbers" needed to win a championship, and keep/sign the players that fit the mold of your project; if it happens that your franchise players can be a piece of that project perfect but if not, you have to get rid of him as soon as possible.

obviously you won’t be able to construct a team that achieves the collective numbers needed during the 1st year; you’ll probably need 2-3 years of trial-error until you find the right pieces to get those numbers.

but i think that is the approach franchises should have, as the sum of the parts make the whole and it’s never the other way round, since the whole does not represent the parts, but contains them.

[EspressoParticipant]

 Ayton

[Author]

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