[Scott42444Participant]

I have recently heard quite a few NBA Draft "experts" downgrade the 2014 NBA Draft to be considered very deep but bereft of "franchise altering talent".  One of the more recent examples was Fran Frischilla on ESPN 1000 about a week ago.  I, like many of us here on the forums, always seem to overvalue the top prospects in every draft.  Hell, I was pumped when the Bulls drafted Marcus Fizer and Jamal Crawford, even though I was mad the Clippers "stole" Darius Miles from the Bulls.  I was also ecstatic that the Bulls shipped the relatively boring Elton Brand for the #2 pick in the 2001 draft and brought in a twin towers rookie grouping that included Tyson Chandler and Eddy Curry.  My point is, I am always more excited for the "potential" ceilings of some draft prospects.  I don’t always recognize the floor of prospects as being a more realistic possibility.  I know that I am not the only person who is a frequent visitor to this website that thinks that way, either.  But, I am starting to change my thinking.  Here is why:

1)  NBA GM’s were VERY reluctant to part with draft picks during the past two trade deadlines.  I am not talking about high, unprotected picks.  I am talking about ANY pick.  Philadelphia’s Sam Hinkie was absolutely giddy that he was able to stockpile 2nd Rounders in the next couple of drafts for legitimate starters.  Yes, Evan Turner and Spencer Hawes are possible rentals for Indiana and Philadelphia, respectively but they are legitimate NBA rotation players who were aquired for 2nd Round picks (Philly has 5 2nd rounders in 2014 alone).  The Phoenix Suns were unwilling to package the insurance protected contract of Omeka Okafor and multiple 1sts for lowpost assistance for their upcoming playoff push.  I have to view the Indiana Pacers 1st Round pick as one of the last few picks of the 1st round, which in past years was not considered very valuable (although teams like San Antonio, Chicago, Oklahoma City, Indiana, etc were able to produce value from those positions).  In years past, teams that were close to the salary/luxury tax were willing to just outright SELL draft picks in order to avoid paying the guaranteed money.  THAT IS NO LONGER PART OF THE NBA LANDSCAPE.

2)  Let’s examine last year’s draft.  It was one of those years where there was no surefire player worthy of the #1 position.  Many draft followers have viewed the 2014 Draft as one of the better drafts in years.  However, I am starting to view it’s depth as it’s strength.  I am a HUGE fan of what I consider the top 2 tiers of talent in this draft.  Tier 1 I place Embiid, Parker, and Wiggins.  Tier 2 I place Smart, Exum, Randle, and possibly even Vonleh.  By "tiers" I mean that I can imagine anyone order of the 3 guys in Tier 1 and any order of the guys in Teir 2 being normal.  If Wiggins were to fall out of the Top 3, being surpassed by a Tier 2 guy, I would be shocked.  But, in the 2013 draft, there was more value (in the limited action these rookies have had) in having 2 picks in the 10-20 range than there was in having just 1 pick in the 1-5 range.  Don’t believe me?  Let’s take a look at 1-5.  Bennett, Oladipo, Porter, Zeller, and Len.  Of those 5 guys, there is really only 1 that has justified his draft position.  I wouldn’t be surprised if none of those guys made an NBA All-Star team, although injuries and "Big Man Learning Curve" can be attributed to the slow start of some of them.  Now, let’s look at 10-20.  C.J. McCollum, Michael Carter-Williams, Steven Adams, Kelly Olynyk, Shabazz Muhammad, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Lucas Noueira, Dennis Schroder, Shane Larkin, Sergey Karasev, Tony Snell.  I believe there is a better chance at a team aquiring assets by having a #11 and #16 (independant of who was drafted where, just picking 2 middle picks at random) than by a team having a pick #1 – #5.

3)  Small market teams might be more willing to build with solid assets versus taking potential superstars.  If you look at the history of the NBA, and then focus on recent NBA History, you can tell there are a dearth of superstars that play their career from beginning to end with small market franchises.  The Carmelo’s, the LeBron’s, the D. Howards, etc.  It might happen soon with Kyrie Irving (although that might have more to do with front office incompetence than the market size, as Kyrie definitely has enough exposure in Cleveland).  Would Milwaukee feel confident that they would be able to keep Andrew Wiggins around for a decade, if he indeed becomes an "elite" talent?  Would they be better served grabbing 3 picks in the #10 – #20 range?  Maybe Gary Harris and Doug McDermott, who have enough talent to be fringe All-Stars (at least that is how I view them at this point their careers), would be a better fit for a small market team that has very little talent on the roster?  Giannis was a great pick for them, but he still has a few years to go before he is a game changer (IMO).  But, when he is a 7’1” PG and has very good talent filling out the rest of the roster he could be unguardable.

 

I am a bit long worded here, but I wonder…which teams that will be in drafting from the Top 8 (the two Top Tiers of the 2014 draft) would prefer to have a couple picks in the Top 20 of a very deep talent pool in the 2014 Draft?  Would the Lakers trade #4 for #12 and #18, in order to maintain flexibility in the last 2 years of Kobe Bryant’s career, in hopes of squeezing out 1 more championship?  They might, since they will always be a prime destination for free agents.  How about Boston?  Cleveland, who has wasted quite a few Top 5 picks and has a new GM looking to make a more complete roster?

Am I dead wrong about the Draft?  Are there 4 HOF’s in the Top 5?  Maybe Wiggins, Parker, Embiid, Randle, Exum, and Smart are the next LeBron, Carmelo, Wade, Bosh, etc.  I am starting to think that isn’t the case.  I am starting to think that having a few picks in the first half of round 1 is a very desireable spot for many teams.  This is the first time I have really thought of this and it’s been a position that was formed by the actions of NBA GM’s.  Unlike the NFL, where there is basically a chart that determines value of trading down/up, the NBA is a star driven league where just one guy can change an entire playoff series.  But, there are really only a few teams that compete for an NBA Championship every season and the new CBA seems to be out to change that and create more parity.

What do you guys think?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

[Scott42444Participant]

As an example of selling draft picks, the D’Antoni Suns that were anchored by Amare, Marion, and Nash were very active in just giving away picks in the mid-2000’s.  

[burgessfourParticipant]

Interesting post. As a Sixers fan it was pretty disappointing they weren’t able to come up with an additional #1 from either the Hawes or Turner deals. It is an unusual year where even the picks in the 20’s were being held onto very tightly. To me this is very telling in terms of how deep most GM’s feel this draft will be. I also feel as though there are a few top tiers that inlcude the top 6-8 players, and that to some extent the next 15-20 picks could be gems, decent rotation players or duds. If I’m Hinkie I would be atleast curious to see if a team like Phoenix holding picks 18 & 22 would be interested in a trade should the N.O. pick stay in the area of pick 11. Not sure whether the Sixers would also need to throw in one of their second rounders to even it up or not.

[burgessfourParticipant]

Interesting post. As a Sixers fan it was pretty disappointing they weren’t able to come up with an additional #1 from either the Hawes or Turner deals. It is an unusual year where even the picks in the 20’s were being held onto very tightly. To me this is very telling in terms of how deep most GM’s feel this draft will be. I also feel as though there are a few top tiers that inlcude the top 6-8 players, and that to some extent the next 15-20 picks could be gems, decent rotation players or duds. If I’m Hinkie I would be atleast curious to see if a team like Phoenix holding picks 18 & 22 would be interested in a trade should the N.O. pick stay in the area of pick 11. Not sure whether the Sixers would also need to throw in one of their second rounders to even it up or not.

[Scott42444Participant]

 I agree on the Sixers. I just couldn’t believe the lack of picks being swapped.  I knew after the Bulls were considered "winners" because they were able to get a heavily protected 1st and two very late 2nds for Luol Deng that NBA GM’s were holding their picks close to their vest.  Although, I think that Sacramento pick could be cashed in as early as next season because the new ownership group of the Kings looks to have a much more aggressive attitude towards winning.  Oh and they have one of the best young centers in the NBA.  

Anyway, Hinke was smart to grab those 2nd rounders.  They will probably be enough in this deep draft to move up a couple spots in the 1st round to grab "their guy".  Hell, maybe Hinke would trade out of the 3rd spot (if he ends up there) to get 2 picks in the teens if their guy isn’t available.  He seems to value quantity above all else.  Baseball is moving in this direction also.  It’s kind of shocking and really sets back some franchises YEARS by their owners/GMs not realizing the direction the league was heading.  Brooklyn and New York don’t have much hope for the future because they not only gave up picks but they gave away the right to swap draft slots.  

 

[Scott42444Participant]

 I agree on the Sixers. I just couldn’t believe the lack of picks being swapped.  I knew after the Bulls were considered "winners" because they were able to get a heavily protected 1st and two very late 2nds for Luol Deng that NBA GM’s were holding their picks close to their vest.  Although, I think that Sacramento pick could be cashed in as early as next season because the new ownership group of the Kings looks to have a much more aggressive attitude towards winning.  Oh and they have one of the best young centers in the NBA.  

Anyway, Hinke was smart to grab those 2nd rounders.  They will probably be enough in this deep draft to move up a couple spots in the 1st round to grab "their guy".  Hell, maybe Hinke would trade out of the 3rd spot (if he ends up there) to get 2 picks in the teens if their guy isn’t available.  He seems to value quantity above all else.  Baseball is moving in this direction also.  It’s kind of shocking and really sets back some franchises YEARS by their owners/GMs not realizing the direction the league was heading.  Brooklyn and New York don’t have much hope for the future because they not only gave up picks but they gave away the right to swap draft slots.  

 

[Scott42444Participant]

As an example of selling draft picks, the D’Antoni Suns that were anchored by Amare, Marion, and Nash were very active in just giving away picks in the mid-2000’s.  

[hbomb3300Participant]

I do think the Thunder should be a team that would be up for trading their picks to move up in the draft or for a better pick next year.  They already have so many young, talented players so it would be tough for them to find room for 2 more first rounders.  Also, they are close to going over the cap so that’s even more incentive.  I think it would be a smart move to trade the 2 firsts for a mid level team’s first next year like the Cavs, Pelicans, or Pistons.

[hbomb3300Participant]

I do think the Thunder should be a team that would be up for trading their picks to move up in the draft or for a better pick next year.  They already have so many young, talented players so it would be tough for them to find room for 2 more first rounders.  Also, they are close to going over the cap so that’s even more incentive.  I think it would be a smart move to trade the 2 firsts for a mid level team’s first next year like the Cavs, Pelicans, or Pistons.

[Author]

Posts