[Snatalini247Participant]

A lot has changed for the NBA over the last decade. The space and pace 3pt revolution has gone full swing. Super teams taking over and the arms race it leads to. Processing. Analytics. Positionless basketball pushing up versitile players who 10 years ago would’ve been labeled "tweeners". With the season winding down and the playoffs close behind I think it would be cool to talk about where the NBA will go next.

Will there be a counteractive defensive movement that will take over and lead to another slowing down of things? Will hero ball take back over after seeing what James Harden was able to do while continuing to produce a winning record? Will the partity between the best and worst teams grow even further apart? Will we get any new franchises?

So what I want to throw out is that I think the disparity between the top teams and the rest is going to grow ever further. Were seeing a lot of teams pooling top talent and more teams trying to combat this by cutting cap space and continually tanking to try to draft top talent, especially when they cant compete with large markets. There definitely is a sensitive balance between drafting well and also figuring out when to try to go all in and add more star talent once those picks have developed. The window is hard to find especially in the era of the Warriors. A new CBA could go along way to towards stopping it but for now it seems to have only made things more difficult.

Teams like the Mavericks, Hawks, and Kings seem to be really primed for the future while having tons of cap space. Teams like the Knicks and Nets seem to be playing the long/short term game of siphoning up young talent while creating cap space/trade chips to make a big move and use that as their star foundation. Teams like the Clippers are trying to play both avenues while other teams like the Blazers and Spurs seem to have enough talent that if the Warriors fall of they might have a chance waiting in the wings so they stand pat for now. 

What do you guys think? Is all this super team and tanking in response to the Warriors dynasty or just the new norm? I think regarldess were going to see a lot more tanking and a lot more star grabbing until the CBA is changed at least.

[MopgrassParticipant]

I do think there is something to James Harden’s game that might represent where basketball will go.  I think the future is free-throws. Unless they, hopefully, change some rules. 

It takes…

100 2-pointers at 50%, to get 100 points. 100 3-pointers at 33% to get you 100 points. 100 trips to the free-throw line (two shots) and shooting 50% gets you 100 points. 

You should shoot free-throws every chance you get… way more so than 3’s. Here are the league averages: 41% FG, 32% 3PT, 76% FT. What happens in 100 shots or trips to the line by today’s shooting standards? 

100 2-pointers at 41% gets you 82 points. 100 3-pointers at 32% gets you 96 points. 100 free throws (with two shots) gets you 152 points! Shooting free-throws is over 50% better than shooting 3’s. And 3’s are better than 2’s. 

Therefore, I would draft the best free-throw shooters and train them to run into traffic like Harden (and somehow get the other team called for a foul). That’s where I think the NBA is, sadly, headed. 

 

[ChoppyParticipant]

 That form of basketball would be unwatchable… 

[nick5354Participant]

 I get what you’re saying, but those numbers are defintely inflated as they don’t take into account missed 2 point shots (when trying to draw the foul). You don’t get to the line automatically to shoot free throws, you miss heaps when going to draw contact. 

But your point about the 3s in accurate. That coach who coached Jack Taylor to those multiple 100 point games was onto the same thing. I had a google and it was called the Grunnell system. Bascially forcing all shots to be 3 point shots due to this fact you pointed out that 3s equate to more points per 100 shots than 2s. It is all analytics and trying to analyse whether the low percentage is worth it and the type of players you have or the current defense. 

With the rise of big data it is defintely having more of an impact. I guess my point to make is I think big data is going to affect the game or direct where the game goes – as we get more informaiton, data metrics, instantaneous individualised player data. 

[OhCanada-Participant]

Refs wont let the game get that slow. In theory attacking the rim and initiating contact sounds good but your just gonna end up with 99% of players wondering why they dont get the same calls as James Harden. Its already bad enough.

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

 Future: big point guards, oversized centers, and 2 guards built like forwards who are athletic and can score in bunches (if not with super-high efficiency).  Then you have two-way utility forwards who are low usage, defend, help out on the boards, space the floor, and hit some shots.  

Holy trinity would be something like Hakeem at center with Jordan and Pippen as our Batman/Robin perimeter attack.  But instead of having Pippen at the 3 you play him at point guard.  Then find cheap, versatile, toolsy forwards to complement that 3 man core.  Moderate depth, some shooters off the bench, and a bull pen of big men.  

So teams of the future will try to piece together a Jordan Bulls type squad or a Prototype Hakeem Team or a Shaq/Kobe two man attack.  The only other option would be to build a super deep Bad Boys type team with uber-defense and length.  

I don’t see a return of the Bird Celtics, Showtime, the Heatles, or the Ultimate Warriors.

The ’83 Sixers might also provide a good template.  

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

 To paraphrase George Orwell, the future of the NBA will be point guard RJ Barrett stomping on your face — forever.

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