[PHXSUNDREAMPICK13Participant]

Finale of the season.  Only the East had to be settled with the Pacers/Bulls/Heats lottery pick on the line.  The Heatles won the losing business by winning but falling short head to head vs the Bulls.  They will have the 14th worst chance at the top3 picks of the 2017 draft via the lottery.  Only if they had the 13th worst record they might of had a chance.  Since 1990,the draft lottery grew from 11 to 13 to now 14 teams.  The 13th pick got lucky in 1999 the Hornets jumped from 13th to 3RD.  Real odds of 13th pick getting a top three is less than 5% and this jump in the draft holds true to the odds.  Yet since 1990, when the lottery became weighted, the official odds have been at odds with reality. Heres some interesting facts to the lottery since 1990.  ALL %  BASED ON 27 YEARS OF DRAFT LOTTERY SINCE 1990. You might build a mock draft around it…

 

First:  Only once in 27 years did the draft stay exactly the same which was 2016 but only once in 1996 all top3 losing teams change positions within the top3 picks  2ND To 1st, 3RD To 2nd, and 1ST To 3rd.

Three times the draft lottery top3 got totally rearranged BUT twice the top3 dropped to 4TH, 5TH, and 6TH.  2007 and the magical year of 1993 had the Magic go 11TH to 1st; 76ERS 5TH to 2nd; Warriors 7TH to 3rd.  

The years  2013,2011,2010,2009,2005,2001,2000,1995 & 1991 were 9 times or 33% of the time that 2 teams jumped into the top 3.   EVERY YEAR EXCEPT TWO did the top3 teams atleast lose one team.  

14 times OR 51.8% of time a team jumped below top3 into 1ST PICK,  SAME W/ 2ND PK 9 times OR 33.3% of time a team jumped below top3 into 3RD Pick.  

The 12th &14th lottery draft positions have never moved up into the top3 in 27 year history

 

Do the Celtics (via Nets) have the best chance of first pick at 25%??? Not if history has to do with it.  1ST Position has only won the lottery 4 OUT OF 27 YEARS!! (14.8%) 3RD position has won the most in the draft lottery at 6 total times.  Magic Johnson had the Lakers winning down to 3rd position for a reason.  Good vibes for Lakers. Even the 5TH postion had more than lottery wins 5 times. 76ers holding 5th position: UH OH!

 

Whos best chance at the 2ND Pick?  Suns at #2 worst record?  NOPE.  Better chance to fall out of the top three at 48% than 22 percent of the times keeping 2nd.  The 1ST worst record has fell to second 33% of the time or 9 times to second pick. 2ND held on 6 times, 4 and 5 won 4 times;  6th won 3 times and UNBELIEVABLY 3RD position jumped to 2ND just once.  Place your Lakers 1st pick, 3rd pick or gulp…. NO PICK!!!

 

So you now know 3RD position has the best track record of winning the draft.  The 3RD position has mostly been won or dropped down to by the 1ST position. 7 out of 27 years has the 1ST worst record dropped to 3RD.  Combined with 9 times of dropping to 2ND, and 7 times dropping to 4TH thats 23 out of 27 years or 85%  percent of the time to drop positions.  TAKE THAT Sam Hinkie!!  Tanking NO GOOD!! Celtics pick stock falling….. 

Finally,  Odds for teams based on track record of staying in/or  jumping to the top3          

1ST Celtics: 74%  Keeping top 3 (25.9% to fall out… 3 out of 4 times but no lock)

2ND Suns:   51.8%   Keeping top 3 (48.1% to fall out… about 50/50 for 2ND worst???)

3RD Lakers:  44.4% Keeping top 3 (55.5% to fall out… Gulp!)

5TH 76ERS  11 TIMES jumped into top 3 (Trust the process 🙂

4TH Magic:  9 TIMES jumped into top3 (Magic went 11th to 1st in 1993 to draft CWebb                                                                        for Penny,  biggest jump to #1 in history)

6TH Knicks: 6 TIMES  jumping top 3 (6th pos. 2X first pick, 3X second pick 1X third pick                                                                 for those Needy Knicks who need to know)

8TH Twolves 4 TIMES jumping top 3 (8th pos. 1X first pick 2X second pick 1X third pick                                                                for those not needy Wolves not needing rookies) 

The rest of the positions won 2 or less times making them just lucky.  

Boring read?  Too much number crunching?  Next as Promised.  State of the Tank: Conspiracys Theory! and  Lottery Mock Draft.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

[Robb_CParticipant]

 I have a funny feeling Lakers get the first pick..

[goddagParticipant]

 I agree, I think the NBA would like to see the #1 in a bigger market plus help the Lakers with their rebuild.

[Ahkasi ClayParticipant]

 NBA has a history of "Helping" the Lakers.  So yeah,  I can see this happening.

[holefillers1Participant]

 F that. I bet a hoagie they get bumped.  (Jack’s or Primo’s)

[ThefabulousjqParticipant]

Did you write this post before the games actually finished last night??  How do you write a post with a heading ‘Draft Lottery Set’ and then get some of the order wrong?!

You have the Sixers and Magic switched (Sixers have 4th best odds and Magic have 5th).  You also list the Knicks at 6th and Wolves at 8th.  They are tied for the 6th/7th spots, which I believe means they will split the total number of lottery balls for those positions and a coin flip will determine the extra lottery combo if it’s an uneven number.  The Kings have the 8th best odds.

 

 

[PHXSUNDREAMPICK13Participant]

 Just checked the final standings. Kings should be 6th, followed by T.wolves/Knicks coin flip.  This site got updated yday and thought it was final results.  Im right on the Magic (29-53) having 4th and 76ers (28-54) having 5th

[ThefabulousjqParticipant]

Dude, still wrong.  You just wrote that the Magic had a better record than the Sixers, so that means the Sixers have better odds at getting the top pick (4th).  the Magic have the 5th best odds.  The Kings are 8th, not 6th.  I’m not sure what site you are looking at.

http://www.tankathon.com has updated reverse standings in order with % at a the top pick.

 

  

[publius2481Participant]

 Your odds based on past record are meaningless due to the law of independent trials. The past results have no effect on this year’s lottery.

[PHXSUNDREAMPICK13Participant]

So conspiracy theorys dont change the odds lol.  Not saying but this post was meant to set up the next post.   Im sure time will make the odds come true.  Hopefully this years draft is holding the odds

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

I guess it would be possible for the Celtics, Lakers, and Knicks getting top 3 picks with the Sixers getting jobbed.

I just wanna see teams get players who really fit.

[BiggysmallsParticipant]

Wolves have never moved up from where they are supposed to pick. They’ve moved down a bunch. 

It’d sure be nice to move up into the top 3. 

 

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