[he_gets_bucketsParticipant]

 http://www.nbadraft.net/forum/state-mavericks

In July of last year I made this post discussing amongst many things, the future of the Mavs. I made the post just before we signed Harrison Barnes, in hopes that we would avoid grabbing any of the scraps left in agency, dusting them off, pinning a max contract to them and pretending they were a steak. 

Flash forward to now, we’re at the tail end of the regular season, and the Mavs are about were I thought we would be back then if we were to pick up a guy like Harrison Barnes. Once again, Rick Carlisle is going to eek out 35 wins out of a team that really shouldn’t have any business winning more than 25. Five Thirty Eight’s current projections have Dallas finishing the season with a 34-48 record, good for eighth worse in the league. 

I’m fairly happy so far this season with how its gone, but especially so with how we have manouvered our roster around since New Year’s. Picking up a great young piece in Nerlens Noel is an absolute boon for us. Let’s break down the intricacies of why that is. We offload Bogut, who whilst is a great veteran presence and as an Aussie I’m remisce to see him leave, is not in the future plans of the team. He gets to go play for a contender and left by all accounts on good terms with the team. This is a good look for the team to show other free agents that we’re a player friendly organisation, and player perception in a time where free agency is more vital to team success than ever before cannot be understated. We offload Justin Anderson, who I was very high on pre draft and was hoping we’d draft, however has just not clicked with the Mavs system. He’s an uber athletic, prototypical 3 and D guy, and I think with a team like the Sixers he’ll find more success with Joel drawing so much attention, and hopefully with Simmons being a great playmaker upon making his debut. To get back a great, proven young piece back for a guy like Anderson who while I hope he finds success elsewhere, hasn’t done much at all as a pro, is a huge win. Finally, we give away our 2017 first round protected pick, that turns into 2 second round picks should it fall into the top 18, which it almost certainly will. This is pennies on the dollar for a young, highly touted prospect, who has shown flashes of being an All-Defense type big should he develop. My biggest gripe before this season was our lack of youth, and through acquiring Nerlens, as well as other acquisitions, such as Seth Curry, Yogi Ferrell, Dorian Finney Smith, all of whom  look like solid rotation pieces at the NBA level, we have addressed that issue fairly well given what we had coming into the season to work with.

I was hoping we would bottom out a bit more (our early season start getting off to a 3-15 record was endlessly pleasing to me after years of middling mediocrity) and have a much more terrible record for a better oppurtunity at snagging a top pick, but in a draft this stacked in the lottery picking in 8-10 range isn’t half bad. In the hypothetical scenario that the lottery holds true to odds and everyone stays in record order, picking at 8 we have a number of high profile prospects to choose from. Theres the cluster of point guards that many are high on, and as the college season winds down it looks like Fultz and Ball have seperated themselves from the pack at this stage, though March Madness, the Combine and individual workouts will leave mocks in much different states come draft day. Currently however, it looks as though theres a distinct second tier of guys after the top 3 of Fultz, Ball and Jackson that doesn’t really have a consensus order. I’m particularly high on Dennis Smith, who I’ve been a fan of since his junior year, but other guys that could fall to us could be De’Aaron Fox who I am not sure I’d love in the Mavs very spacing oriented offense as he is cut from the Rondo/John Wall cloth of point guard. Frank Ntilkina could be there, though I have not watched enough tape on him to make any educated comments on his viability for us. A guy like Malik Monk, who I think is getting slept on for how good of a scorer and athlete he is could end up being a steal pick for us. Regardless of who we pick, it’s hard for us to stuff up this pick with so many All-Star potential tier draftees in our picking range. However, we really need to score on this pick. Its unlikely we remain this bad next season, as Cuban is really not a fan of losing, so no doubt we will probably pick up some more scraps in free agency this offseason, so next year’s pick will not be anywhere near as valuable as this years. This pick needs to be a homerun for us.

The future is looking slightly better, but the dark horizon that still lurks is that even if we were to score a LeBron level talent in this draft, with teams like Golden State and Cleveland assembled for the forseeable future, its hard to see another team breaking through for more than just a blip of success. Perhaps Boston wins the number 1 pick and swings a godfather deal for Paul George on draft day and they manage to get past Cleveland and beat Golden State ala the Pistons in 2004 when they got Sheed in the offseason. On paper they might not be better than either team, but sometimes a team just clicks, like the Pistons running through the East and beating, an albeit in fighting, superstar studded Lakers squad. 

Harrison Barnes has surpassed my expectations of him this year, I didn’t think he would play this well as a number 1 option, however, I still don’t see him being more than a number 3 option on a contending team, and we have nothing resembling a number 1 or 2 currently unless Dirk were to wind back 12 years off his body. Nerlens is a great get, but his best case scenario is something along the lines of Tyson Chandler, who again, whilst a part of the championship recipe, he isn’t the most critical piece like a prime Dirk or similar player is. We, just like countless other teams are still going to need that player, and in todays NBA with superteams abound, probably 2 or 3 of  those players, to be able to compete with the likes of Golden State and Cleveland over the next 5 years. Guys like Seth Curry and Yogi Ferrell, whilst nice stories and good pickups for a team in our current state, aren’t players that move the dial on a contending team.

So whilst I am pleasantly surprised and happy with the move we have made this year and optimistic for our draft, I’m still skeptical on our long term future and can’t see us contending for a title in the next 5 years. Our best piece currently is, and probably for as long as we have the honour of having him, will be Rick Carlisle, who is far and away the most overlooked coach in the game at the moment. But I’m not sure how long Rick’s going to want to stick around in Dallas if we don’t score a big time guy in this draft and break out of the cycle of mediocrity soon. The outlook isn’t as dull as it was this time last year for a Mavs fan, but its still not particularly bright unless we score a stud in the draft..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mavsatxParticipant]

 i agree 100% with what you said

[bdmoteParticipant]

 Im not a Mavericks Fan and dont get to see many games but what I have seen has led me to think that 2 or 3 maybe 4 years dow the road if Yogi and Seth keep on developing like they have so far I think they coud be really pretty good players later on but not players you would build around. 

[he_gets_bucketsParticipant]

 I think they can both be solid bench guys for a playoff team but I don’t see either as a longterm starter or building block

[D7H7NParticipant]

 Dennis Smith is dropping like a rock on a lot of mock drafts recently. If Dallas ends up with the 6th or even the 7th pick, Smith could easily go to them given how everyone else is trending up.

[he_gets_bucketsParticipant]

 Thats my hope at the moment, I don’t get why Fultz gets a pass for Washington playing like crap but Dennis slides for NC being similarly bad. Dennis is tenacious on both ends, can shoot, can pass and is a freak of nature athlete. I think people are overthinking it with him. I don’t see him being anything less than an All-Star wherever he ends up

[OhCanada-Participant]

Gotta say I agree with everything youve said. First off Rick Carlisle is the most underrated Coach in sports and the Mavs are one of the best run franchises not necessarily from an asset management perspective but more from a personnel development standpoint.

Carlisle has given alot of players on thier way out of the league longterm careers. Dwayne Casey is a great example of this. You give him a body eager to learn and he will find a spot in his system. He always finds minutes for players that are playing well. It doesnt seem to be based on where the player was selected how much he gets paid. JJ Barea is a great example of this. Yogi Ferrell, Dwight Powell, Justin Anderson. Who knows what thier careers would be like if Carlisle didnt show confidence in them.

A top 10 pick for Carlisle is worth more than a top 3 pick for most of these sad teams. I strongly believe no matter who they pick a fine player will be developed. Type of coach that absolutely gets the most out of his players by teaching and showing trust. As for Noel he couldnt have landed in a better situation. Philly fans should be happy though. They got a gem with Anderson and really had no buisness getting anything back for Noel considering they werent resigning him. The guy only played 8 minutes with Joel Embiid. Im sure they will get more than 8 minutes out of Anderson.

And for the record I think Ferrell would be a reliable starter but an outstanding backup. If you have Ferrell coming off your bench for 20mpg he would be very effective.

[he_gets_bucketsParticipant]

 Yeah the Noel-Anderson trade is a win win for both teams. Unload a wonky fit for a much better one. Mutually beneficial if there ever was one. 

I agree that whoever we get Carlisle will maximise, I just hope we get a guy with the ceiling for that max potential to be stardom and not just a quality starter. I’m worried our management will get enamoured by Lauri Markannen as the next Dirk and he ends up being purely a shooter at the next level. We really need to score with a big point guard prospect in my opinion

[bdmoteParticipant]

 this is offtopic but, I dont see how you can draft a guy 1st overall all if his team is 9-20 if your drafting a guy 1st overall you want him to change your team and lead them he cant even lead his team to 15-14 how the hell are you going to take him #1

[r377Participant]

If your a Mavs fan you might be in for a few lean years.

As long as Cuban doesn’t think Lauri is the next Dirk you should be able to do well out of this good draft….

[khaled_a_dParticipant]

Mavs fan here,loved reading your post

-I have an issue of you talking about being a contender,tbh I don’t see us being a contender for the next 6 years may be even more. It usually takes 3-4 years to build a core and couple of years for them to grow. GSW drafted Curry in after 08/09 season and won their 1st ring in 2015 while doing 1 wrong draft pick. OKC started rebuilding in 06/07 and reached final in 2012 while having drafted 3 future HOF in 3 consecutive drafts and 3 times 1st All Defense team

We shouldn’t care about GSW & Cavs at this point,this is the 1st year in the rebuild.

-Also while teams always wish to build a contender that isn’t always possible,sometimes you have to settle with what you have and build a respectable team that can reach play-offs constantly,sort of like Memphis has done.
I think that is what we are gonna have in the next phase of the franchise,we had a true contender with Dirk,then became a respectable old team and now we will probably be better than and younger but not a true contender unless we got a true superstar in the draft,if the latter happened their will be always a way to get a 2nd piece

-This is the 1st year in our rebuild,Cuban probably knew that when Whiteside and Conley passed on signing with us
In 1st year of rebuild we got Barnes whom I think you are underrating,I think he has been developing into a very good 2nd option scoring wise,we got Noel who is good young C,once he learns to set screen can be very good starter for us,few other good young pieces in Yogi,DFS & Seth. Those are young good players who might turn as good bench players or very good 6 man or assets to use in trades. And top 10 pick going in June Draft that will most likely be between 6th-8th unless we got absolutely lucky.Not so bad for 1st year rebuild IMHO
I think if they decided to go for play-off for the next few years we will be in very good shape with that
And remember that super teams = play-off teams with losing record,so it will be easier for us to make it happen.

-I think you shouldn’t ignore the morals in the situation,Mavs feel they owe it to Dirk to try to win while he is playing. We won’t suck so bad and go full tanking unless he retired and we though we could just bank on HB.

-As for RC,basketball wise he would probably have asked to leave already,but he has 12 years old daughter who has been living in the City since she was 4 and the family is settled well in the City. there is more in his decision than Basketball. He is the highest paid coach who has no front office duties IIRC,he has an organization that is totally behind him. I think he is gonna stay for the end of his contract anyway. He was also widely regarded as 2nd best coach in the league after Popovic not so long ago b4 Kerr and Stevens becoming the new stars.

[HitsterParticipant]

Dallas will likely have it’s first losing season since 2000, they had a 41-41 season in 2012-13 but that was only because Dirk missed nearly 30 games.

This year was always going to be a rebuilding one for Dallas, they were able to grab Harrison Barnes who already has title winning experience thanks to KD jumping to GSW. So they have one proven young player in place to rebuild around, Noel was added with a trade so we assume they will be looking to resign him but as they are only giving up two 2nd rounders for him they can easily walk away if his demands are too high.

Despite only being 3 wins off 8th seeding, the Mavs arte clearly looking longer term having waived D-Will and traded Bogut for the younger Noel. With a loaded draft especially in the PG area, I think Dallas are prepared to take their chances there rather than try to get 8th seeding and a likely defeat to GSW.

Dallas are having a look at Yogi Ferrell at PG but regardless of what he does, I don’t see them passing up on a Fultz, Ball type guy if they get a chance to draft him. Yogi has done well this year and no doubt his player option will be picked up and hopefully he’ll be offered better terms but. he may be more a back up, impact bench type player if a top young PG is added.

Wesley Matthews brings experience and decent scoring at SG and is ideally an excellent 3rd option on the team behind Barnes and whoever they draft going forward.

Dallas could have a load of cap space depending on whether Dirk opts in for $25 million for next season. Dirk is only 38 points off 30,000 career points so when he gets that, it could be that he decides to call it a day. But as there has been no word from Dirk yet, it might seem strange he’d retire in the off season with no send off, some guys do such as Tim Duncan, KG etc whilst others like Kobe play a fairwell season after announcing they will retire at its end. Once Dirk reaches 30k he may make an announcement and play a short fairwell run of games. Dirk always seems a quiet guy and may not want a fuss. Also he might even consider the teams long term good and opt out to free up extra cap space for them.

Dirk has been unselfish in his career and I could see him opting out and taking less money for one last year to give Dallas FA cap space but also allowing the team to benefit from his experience for one more year. Dirk will be 40 next summer and next year would be his 20th season, bowing out then would seem a perfect landmark.

Dallas are always considered to have a good Front Office lead by Donnie Nelson and a top coach in Rick Carlisle and despite not having drafted really high since they added Dirk, I think most of us would back them to find the ideal prospect from the draft. A lot will depend on where they pick, currently pegged around 7th or 8th, they could down a bit or get lucky in the lottery and get a top 3 pick.

One negative about Dallas is despite being a rich successful team, they haven’t really added a top level FA in recent years. With the Dirk era drawing to a close, they may not be seen as a place for someone looking to be on a contender would go. But with cap space, a top coach and being a big team, I’d hope they could entice a top 5 FA there eventually. They could almost offer the keys to the team in the post Dirk era.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[khaled_a_dParticipant]

Dirk already said he will stay one more season
http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/245175/Dirk-Nowitzki-Intends-To-Play-Next-Season

He will tie Kobe record of most seasons with 1 team if he does that,he also once hinted he might even add one more year later which most of Mavs fan hope for (will tie record for most NBA seasons,breaks Kobe record and move up in the list of most NBA games) but I think the way his body look like this year he might call it a day in 2018

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