[BothTeamsPlayedHardParticipant]

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/sam_amick/05/16/draft.prospects/index.html#ixzz1v9oyffVA

As NBA front-office types and scouts continue their homework leading up to the June 28 draft, one central purpose will drive their study sessions: risk management.

It’s vital to the talent-evaluation process, the tall task of analyzing young players so comprehensively and accurately that the odds of shooting a proverbial air ball with a pick are minimized. As Oklahoma City has shown as well as any other team in recent years by drafting Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden and Serge Ibaka, these selections can determine the direction of a franchise and an executive’s job security (or lack thereof).

This year’s draft is considered strong and deep, meaning owners everywhere will be expecting an impact player no matter how late they might pick. Despite all the hype, however, uncertainty still reigns and the possibility of landing a bust is as great as ever.

After speaking with several personnel men, I will attempt to quantify the level of variance with these prospects over the next three days, dividing 30 potential first-round picks into three risk-based categories and providing a brief breakdown of each player. Two quick disclaimers before I explain further: 1) Kentucky’s Anthony Davis, in case you hadn’t heard, is in a class by himself in this draft, even if he happens to share a category, and 2) Players are listed from top to bottom based on an inexact and subjective formula: perceived amount of risk coupled with talent and upside.

Here are the three categories:

1. Hitting The Jackpot (four players): The talent is immense and the upside is as trustworthy as there is in the draft. See below for an evaluation of Davis and the other three players in this group.

2. The Gambles: (15 players): In short, this is where the risk gets weighed against the reward. Questions about these players’ games — and, in some cases, their attitudes or off-court issues — might give NBA decision makers cause for pause, but getting it right could result in a major payoff too. This story will run on Thursday. (Update: Click here for the story.)

3. The Safe Play: (11 players): These players might not make any All-Star teams, but talent evaluators say they’re the easiest to project. So if you like the skill set and don’t want your bosses to be surprised, you feel comfortable picking from this pool. This story will run on Friday.

***

Let’s start, then, with the first category:

Anthony Davis, Kentucky, freshman power forward (6-foot-10, 220 pounds): As if his top-dog status hasn’t been established already, I spoke with another general manager to inquire about Davis’ incredible potential. To review, my May 1 report had executives comparing Davis not only to Blake Griffin but also to future Hall of Famer Kevin Garnett. Sure enough, the consensus continues.

"He could be every bit as good as KG," the GM said. "KG, [Tim] Duncan — that’s this guy’s upside. There’s no telling how good this guy is going to be."

Whereas most No. 1 picks have already showcased most of their skills by this stage, the fact that Davis didn’t become a big man until a growth spurt during his junior year in high school likely means the evolution is just getting started. His defensive presence has been well-chronicled (he led the nation with 4.6 blocks), but the GM sees plenty of offensive potential as well.

"He’ll start doing things in a couple of years, and you’ll be like, ‘Wow,’ " he said.

Thomas Robinson, Kansas, junior power forward (6-9, 240): Robinson joins Davis in the top tier in this group in terms of prospect predictability. The breakout star of the 2011-12 college season, Robinson’s production soared after the Morris twins, Marcus and Markieff, left Kansas for the NBA last year. He’s slightly undersized for the power forward position, but he’s made believers out of most executives not only because of his speed, strength and scoring skills but also because he’s a relentless worker and phenomenal rebounder.

One executive deemed him a better version of Nuggets rookie Kenneth Faried, a high-energy forward who led the nation in rebounding in his senior season at Morehead State but still had his doubters entering the NBA as the No. 22 pick in the 2011 draft. Faried thrived in the second half of the season and helped Denver push the Lakers to seven games in the first round of the playoffs.

"Thomas Robinson is the same kind of guy — undersized, big motor, but more skilled," the executive said. "Maybe you put him in the star category."

Or, as Markieff Morris told ESPN The Magazine in a November 2011 story, "He has the speed of Kobe and a body like LeBron’s. Sky’s the limit."

The Jayhawks’ strong finish to the season helped boost Robinson, who had 18 points and 17 rebounds in their loss to Kentucky in the national championship game. He averaged 17.6 points and 11.9 rebounds (second in the nation) in 31.8 minutes for the season, a big jump from his sophomore averages of 7.6 points and 6.4 rebounds in 14.6 minutes. Robinson, who can score with his back to the basket and when attacking in face-up situations, is inconsistent as an outside threat but has some range.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky, freshman small forward (6-7, 210): He was Robin to Davis’ Batman at Kentucky, in large part because of his commitment to playing both ends of the floor (he was only fourth on the team in scoring at 11.9 points). It’s unclear whether he can evolve into playing a lead role, but he has no shortage of casting calls because of his versatility and the leadership he showed during the Wildcats’ championship run.

For all of the attention paid to Davis as Kentucky’s top talent, Kidd-Gilchrist was regarded as the team’s glue. Coach John Calipari routinely praised him for being the emotional leader, and Kidd-Gilchrist was the captain of the Wildcats’ 8:30 a.m. workouts before scheduled practices.

It’s hard to tell how good he can be offensively because of the deep surrounding talent at Kentucky, but he has been compared to New Jersey’s Gerald Wallace in terms of his athleticism and attacking mentality. Kidd-Gilchrist had two of his best offensive games in the NCAA tournament, scoring 24 points on 7-of-15 shooting against Indiana in the Sweet 16 and 19 points on 7-of-10 shooting against Baylor in the Elite Eight.

He might have the best motor in the draft, and nothing makes scouts happier than a player who never stops. Kidd-Gilchrist is also a tenacious defender with a 6-10 wingspan. His inconsistent perimeter game is a concern, but his work ethic and approach have NBA teams drooling.

"He has all the intangibles," one assistant general manager said. "And he plays extremely hard."

Bradley Beal, Florida, freshman shooting guard (6-4, 205): After a celebrated high school career at Chaminade College Preparatory School in St. Louis, Beal’s freshman year with the Gators was underwhelming in that he didn’t live up to his reputation as a long-range marksman. But NBA teams remain high on his shooting ability, he shined in the NCAA tournament and he still averaged 14.8 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.4 steals for the season.

Beal finished in impressive fashion, scoring 20 points in a three-point loss to Kentucky in the SEC tournament semifinals, then averaging 15.7 points in four NCAA tournament games. He shot 60.5 percent (23-of-38) from the field and 42.1 percent (8-of-19) from three-point range in the Big Dance, raising his season marks to 44.5 percent and 33.9 percent.

Natural shooters with athleticism who hit the glass, defend and have a high hoops IQ are hard to come by, making Beal a possible top five pick. One front-office source said a lot of teams have Beal ranked ahead of Connecticut’s Jeremy Lamb, who is also vying to be the best shooting guard in the draft.

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/sam_amick/05/17/draft.risk.reward/index.html#ixzz1v9p5FZwQ
 

Let the NBA draft risk assessment continue.

Now we’re really rolling the dice.

After focusing Wednesday on the four prospects considered jackpot talents by NBA personnel men who spoke with SI.com, today we look at 15 players who qualify as high risk and possibly high reward. These players will be the most daunting to dissect, their upside high but the odds of an accurate projection of them as pros low. It’s no coincidence that only two of them are upperclassmen, who have a larger sample size to evaluate.

This is the second of a three-part exercise offering a window into the world of the front-office types and scouts who are feverishly preparing for the June 28 draft. In an attempt to quantify the level of variance with the top prospects, I’m dividing 30 potential first-round picks into three risk-based categories and providing a brief breakdown of each player. To review:

1. Hitting The Jackpot (four players): The talent is immense and the upside is as trustworthy as there is in the draft. Click here for Wednesday’s story.

2. The Gambles: (15 players): In short, this is where the risk gets weighed against the reward. Questions about these players’ games — and, in some cases, their attitudes or off-court issues — might give NBA decision makers cause for pause, but getting it right could result in a major payoff too. This story runs today.

3. The Safe Play: (11 players): These players might not make any All-Star teams, but talent evaluators say they’re the easiest to project. So if you like the skill set and don’t want your bosses to be surprised, you feel comfortable picking from this pool. This story will run on Friday.

***

Here’s a look at The Gambles:

Andre Drummond, Connecticut, freshman center (6-foot-10, 270 pounds): While Kentucky power forward and consensus No. 1 pick Anthony Davis was the headliner of the "Jackpot" bunch, Drummond has that label in this group. His talent and size are worthy of Jackpot status, but the best center in the bunch lands here after being the poster boy for the Huskies’ disappointing defense of their 2011 national title.

Drummond’s unexpected decision last August to attend UConn was seen as the sort of recruiting coup that could keep the Huskies near the top of college basketball despite the loss of star guard Kemba Walker to the NBA. Scout.com made Drummond the No. 2 recruit in the country as a senior at St. Thomas More High School in Oakdale, Conn., where he won a national prep title.

But the mix never worked, even as UConn returned a fellow pro prospect and a breakout player in its championship run, shooting guard Jeremy Lamb (more on him later). The Huskies were eliminated in the first round of the NCAA tournament by Iowa State, finishing 20-14 overall and 8-10 in the Big East. Drummond had just two points and three rebounds in 26 minutes in that game, capping a season in which he averaged only 10 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2.7 blocks and 28.4 minutes while shooting 53.8 percent from the field and an embarrassing 29.5 percent from the free-throw line.

"He’s a project," one front-office man said.

Still, he’s about as promising a project as there is in this draft. The combination of his size and elite athleticism has teams wondering if he could become a hybrid of the Lakers’ Andrew Bynum and the Magic’s Dwight Howard. Like both players, he is a force on defense at a young age but has a long way to go offensively.

Drummond can run the floor like a guard, he’s a natural passer and he can step out for mid-range jumpers. But the inconsistency and his penchant for playing while in third gear have raised concerns. His playing time was inconsistent as well, though, with six games of fewer than 20 minutes, and his ability to be a dependable rebounder when he played big minutes could be revealing. Attacking the glass is often an indicator of a player’s motor, and Drummond averaged 9.6 rebounds in his 16 games of 30-plus minutes.

Perry Jones, Baylor, sophomore power forward (6-11, 235): Jones’ decision to return to school for one more year added to the hype surrounding this draft class. Though he was viewed as a top five talent a year ago because of his incredible athleticism, size and versatility, his underwhelming season and continuing questions about his game have hurt his stock. Chief among them: Does he have what it takes to make the most of his talent?

"If you were going to define what a basketball player would look like, he’d probably be it," one front-office source said. "But there’s a lot missing with him heart-wise. … You just wonder if he’s a soft kid."

Jones’ scoring declined in his sophomore season (13.5 points from 13.9 as a freshman), and his unimpressive rebounding numbers increased a bit (7.2 to 7.6) in three more minutes per game. Even he has acknowledged his need to compete more consistently, and improvement in that vital area could — doubts and all — turn him into one of the most special players in this class.

Jeremy Lamb, Connecticut, sophomore shooting guard (6-5, 185): As is the case with Drummond, there’s some guilt by association here when it comes to the Huskies and their weak title defense. Lamb’s skill set, shot, athleticism and smooth scoring are still enough to ensure that he doesn’t slide too far in the first round, but he didn’t progress the way that many expected after Walker’s departure. Four of his 10 games with at least 20 points last season came in the first five contests, and he averaged 17.7 points overall while shooting 47.8 percent from the field and 33.6 percent on three-pointers. Lamb’s very skinny frame is an issue, too.
 
John Henson, North Carolina, junior power forward (6-11, 220): If not for concerns about Henson’s frail frame and whether he can ever put on some serious weight, he might be a top five pick because of his potential as a defensive difference maker. His length, agility and athleticism allow him to guard both bigs and smalls as needed. Henson, who was just 183 pounds coming out of high school, averaged 9.9 rebounds and 2.9 blocks last season for a Tar Heels team that finished 32-6 and fell to Kansas in the Elite Eight.

Henson’s offensive game improved steadily throughout his college career, and he averaged 13.7 points on 50 percent shooting last season while playing second fiddle down low to fellow frontcourt prospect Tyler Zeller (who will be featured in Friday’s "Safe Bets" category). At his best, one personnel man said, Henson could be similar to Marcus Camby in terms of his defensive impact. Or, the talent evaluator cautioned, Henson could be Brandan Wright, a thin power forward from North Carolina who has played for three teams and averaged 13.7 minutes since being drafted eighth in 2007.

Terrence Ross, Washington, sophomore shooting guard (6-6, 195): Ross is a dynamic player and possible lottery selection. He became a starter late in his freshman season and showed an immediate ability to produce on both ends. In his sophomore season, he averaged 16.4 points and shot 45.7 percent from the field and 37.1 percent from three-point range for the Huskies, who went 24-11 and lost in the NIT semifinals.

"He’s going to be pretty good," one front-office source said. "He has big upside because he’s a really good athlete and shooter. He just needs to work on his handle. He has the ability to be a really good defender if he just puts his effort into it."

Austin Rivers, Duke, freshman shooting guard (6-4, 203): At a time when NBA decision makers are paying more attention to efficiency than ever, players like Rivers tend to split the room. Celtics coach Doc Rivers’ son has all the talent and star power a team could want late in the lottery or in the middle of the first round, using his vast offensive repertoire to average 15.5 points for the Blue Devils while proving to be one of the most exciting players in the country. But he shot just 43.3 percent and dominated the ball in ways that he won’t likely be able to in the NBA (at least not in his early years).

"He’s an undersized ‘two’ [shooting guard] who is a high-volume, low-percentage shooter," one front-office critic said. "Those guys don’t do well in the NBA."

Meyers Leonard, Illinois, sophomore center (7-foot, 240): The finished product isn’t pretty just yet, but Leonard did more than enough in his sophomore season to put him near the top of most teams’ big-man rankings (even if his team did not, as the Fighting Illini were 17-15 overall and 6-12 in the Big Ten and lost 12 of their last 14 games). He can be imposing on defense with his rare combination of athleticism, size and increasing strength. His offense is raw, but Leonard is capable of hitting the mid-range shot and his post game has improved. He averaged 13.6 points, 8.2 rebounds and 1.9 blocks for Illinois after a freshman season in which he barely played.

Fab Melo, Syracuse, sophomore center (7-foot, 244): His size and shot-blocking (2.9 per game) have turned him into a likely mid-to-late first-round pick. Otherwise, his rebounding is not what it could be and his offensive game is incredibly raw. Big men tend to crawl up the board as draft day nears, and some see Melo as a possible lottery pick.

Royce White, Iowa State, sophomore power forward (6-8, 270): The risk might be unique in White’s case, as the 21-year-old has an anxiety disorder (he has openly discussed his reliance on medication for treatment) and fear of flying that could wind up hurting his stock. (NBA teams also will take note of how he was charged with disorderly conduct and theft for a 2009 shoplifting incident during his freshman year at Minnesota, where he never played a game before transferring to Iowa State.)

If he can find a way to be comfortable with the NBA lifestyle and the charter planes that come with it, the reward might be great for whichever team takes him. White is the rarest of all-around players in this crop, a playmaking big man who led the Cyclones in scoring (13.4 points), rebounds (9.3), assists (5.0), steals (1.2) and blocks (0.9). He flourished on the biggest stage, averaging 19 points (on 71.4 percent shooting) and 10.5 rebounds in Iowa State’s two NCAA tournament games.

Tony Wroten, Washington, freshman guard (6-5, 208): He has the speed, athleticism, aggressive scorer’s mentality, passing skills and physicality to be a top talent. But Wroten also struggles mightily with his shot and ability to play under control. Wroten, who averaged 16 points (on 44.3 percent shooting overall and 16.1 percent from three-point range), 5.0 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.9 steals, could go anywhere from the lottery to the late first round.

Arnett Moultrie, Mississippi State, junior forward (6-11, 230): When Moultrie left UTEP after two seasons in 2010, he cited differences with coach Tim Floyd and a desire to improve his NBA standing as the main reasons. The plan, which forced him to sit out a season because of NCAA transfer rules, appears to have worked. Moultrie, who averaged 16.4 points (on 54.9 percent shooting) and 10.5 rebounds last season for a Bulldogs team that faded with seven losses in its last nine games after a 19-5 start, is a phenomenal athlete who can dominate in all the ways a big man should. He runs the floor well, is a strong finisher and has proved to be dominant for long stretches.

Terrence Jones, Kentucky, sophomore forward (6-9, 252): Jones played a significant part in the Wildcats’ national championship after deciding to return to school. But his draft stock took a hit in the process, in large part because of his lack of consistency but also because his style of play might not fit his role at the next level. He often plays like a stretch power forward — a la Ryan Anderson of Orlando — but his shot isn’t nearly good enough to assume that role and it’s not likely he’ll be able to play much small forward in the NBA. But Jones is a good passer, defender and rebounder who averaged 12.3 points (on 50 percent shooting from the field and 32.7 percent from three-point range), 7.2 rebounds and 1.3 steals last season.

Quincy Miller, Baylor, freshman small forward (6-9, 210): The athleticism, offensive versatility and strong two-way play could have him gone by the middle of the first round, but Miller is likely to be a project wherever he goes. He averaged just 10.6 points, 4.9 rebounds and 24.4 minutes in his one season at Baylor, playing in Perry Jones’ shadow while offering only glimpses of what he might become.

Will Barton, Memphis, sophomore shooting guard (6-6, 175): If you’re looking for a natural scorer with a high ceiling in his all-around game who plays hard, Barton may be your man. He averaged 18 points (on 50.9 percent shooting and 34.6 percent from three-point range), 8.0 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 1.4 steals for Memphis, which finished 26-9 and lost to Saint Louis in the second round of the NCAAs. His accuracy improved greatly from his freshman season, when he shot 42.8 percent overall and 26.5 percent from beyond the arc.

Evan Fournier, France, shooting guard (6-7, 206): The 19-year-old Fournier may be the only international player to be taken in the first round, and it will be almost entirely because of his size and an offensive skill set that has improved this season while playing for Poitiers in the French League. He is a slasher with some playmaking skills, though his shot is mostly suspect.

——————————————————————–

"This year’s draft is considered strong and deep, meaning owners everywhere will be expecting an impact player no matter how late they might pick."

If that is the case, they will be disappointed. If the players in the "jackpot" category have the word "motor" prominently used in their initial report, it means they aren’t talented enough to have more meaningful traits put on them.

[scbe2223Participant]

 A few things, I agree on the Davis=Garnett, Henson=Camby comparisons. 

I love Will Barton’s game, and I think he has a chance to be a contributor sooner rather than later if he is given a legitimate chance somewhere. 

I think Terrence Ross is a pretty safe pick between 13-20. In my opinion he will be a better pro than Jeremy Lamb, and will be very close to Beal in terms of NBA production.

People need to stop worrying about Royce White. The dude has the game to excel, and I think the rigor of the NBa will keep any of his other issues in check. 

Lastly, if Fab Melo goes in the lottery I will probably break whoever’s TV I’m watching the draft on. He is a big body who did not have the discipline to keep his grades up, and showed atrocious rebounding numbers for someone his size.

[Tobe BryantParticipant]

Austin Rivers will be the best long-term STAR in this draft. His game is tailor fitted for the NBA! Ball-dominated on a bad squad will always lead to you making Sportscenter nightly and putting up insane scoring numbers. His first-step is deadly, and his confidence goes through the roof. He is going to have his struggles and questioning of decision-making, but it’s no doubt that he will be scoring in bunches for some team this season. 

[Im Your FatherParticipant]

I’m baffled that people continue to attack Rivers’s efficiency while touting Beal as the second coming. That’s not to say that Beal won’t be a better NBA player, but the guy is considered to be a deadly shooter, compared to Ray Allen even, and he shot 34 percent from three, worse than Rivers a so-called streaky shooter. Futhermore, they are both "undersized," although Rivers is likely a little taller. I understand that there is value in a guy like Beal that doesn’t need the ball all the time to get his offense, but isn’t there also value in a guy who can get his own shot anytime?

I’d also like to point out that I think Rivers’ ball dominance is being overplayed. He has literally never played on a team that didn’t depend on him to do that. Rivers was the ONLY player on last years Duke team that could create his own shot or break down his defender off the dribble. He appeared to be more ball dominant than I think he actually needs to be, because often Duke’s offense would stagnate and Krzyzewski would lean on Rivers to create all the offense.

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

Will Barton is intriguing.  CBS mock has him going to the Bulls at 29.  That might be the guy they need.   If I were the Bulls I would retool, let Rose and Deng rest, back into the playoffs as a 6 or 7 seed and then make a run at a title in 2 years.  

… for a supposedly "great" draft there are a lot of question marks.  Anthony Davis should be very good, and there are several other good players, but this should turn into a stock picker’s draft pretty early.  Not the best sign for the Grizzlies who pick at 25, and have underwhelmed in the past few drafts.  We only have 6.5 million or so to spend on 4 or 5 guys so we can’t screw up this pick. 

[DolanCareParticipant]

The doubts about Rivers are legitimate. If you are ball-dominant and a volume scorer, you have to be efficient. Beal may have simliar drawbacks to Rivers, but he touches the ball wayyy less than Rivers. 

And Rivers did have help on Duke. Most teams would benefit having Seth Curry and a Plumbee on their team. 

[Im Your FatherParticipant]

I didn’t say he didn’t have help. That’s not what I meant at all. I said he was the only player who could get his own shot. Seth Curry is a spot up shooter, he is a below average ball handler and doesn’t have the quickness to get into the lane. Mason Plumlee has a developing low post game, but it’s nothing to right home about yet. He gets most of his points off broken plays and in transition. Rivers was the only player who could create his own shot on a regular basis. No one else could break down a defense. He dribbled a lot partly because that is his game, but it was also partially due to necessity. 

[ballaj334Participant]

how is an undersized two guard tailor made for the nba? he struggles to make good decisions with the ball in his hands and despite being alright for duke on defense he is not a game changer on that side of the floor where will he excell?

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