[treytalkssports.comParticipant]

Last year, I posted about a guy named Kevin Hetrick, who did a statistical analysis of the combine measurements and testing to see if there was any correlation to future success in the NBA. Now that a lot of the testing is in, I would like to have a discussion about some of his correlations and this year’s draft class.http://hardwoodparoxysm.com/

Obviously, you don’t pick a player purely on measurements and athletic testing, but his analysis does add valuable insights into some of the 2015 prospects. Here are a few of my observations.

Point Guards

According to his findings, there is a strong rate of success when teams draft an upperclassman point guard who got at least an 11 seconds on the agility time and a 3.2 on the 3/4 court run. The only one who hits all three criteria was Keifer Sykes. 

One point guard hit the elite numbers of 3.15 agility and 30 inches standing vertical. Players who hit those normally have success in the NBA, with the potential for stardom. That player was Terry Rozier, who might be an interesting mid-first round pick if he is truly a point guard. 

Shooting Guards

According to his findings, no player has ever succeeded in the NBA as a shooting guard with an agility time above 11.2, regardless of their other athletic scores. He said that he thinks the reason is that you have to be at least that agile to play defense in the NBA. This does not bode well for Rashad Vaugn, Oliver Hanlan, and Delon Wright. 

Combined scores of at least a 6’9” wingspan, 30” no step vert, and 35” step vert normally indicated star potential in shooting guards (although last year, CJ Wilcox, Marcus Smart, and PJ Hairston all made these–this might mean this measurement isn’t as effective). Dez Wells, Michael Qualls, Kelly Oubre, Norman Powell, JP Tokoto, and Justin Anderson all met these measurements. Terry Rozier (if you consider him a shooting guard) barely missed the wingspan with a 6’8.25” wingspan, but had really good verticle scores. 

Small Forward

According to Petrick, there is no direct correlation between athletic testing and success in the NBA for small forwards. However, as a general rule, taller players have a higher probability of success. There are a lot of 6’7”-6’8” small forwards in this draft, which would probably be average size for an NBA small forward. Aaron White and Sam Dekker both measured above 6’8”. 

Power Forward

The only correlation he found for power forwards (other than that strength helps rebounding) is that the higher no step and max verticals indicate better potential for defense. Vince Hunter, Jordan Mickey, and Richard Holmes all scored had good regular verticals and max verticles. Vince Hunter might be more of small forward without a jumpshot, but Mickey and Holmes have already been pegged as potential sleepers.  

Centers

The best correlation he found for center success in the NBA was speed. The faster the center, the better the chance he has to succeed. No true centers tested particularly well in speed. He also found that centers who combine at least a 3.3 3/4 court speed and 9’2” standing reach almost always have success in the NBA, with the potential for stardom. Robert Upshaw, Miles Turner, Dakari Johnson, Jahlil Okafor, Karl Anthony-Towns, Willie Cauley-Stein, Rakeem Christmas, and Mouhammadou Jaiteh all measured above 9’2” standing reach, but only Johnson, Jaiteh, and Christmas actually ran (and didn’t beat the 3.3). I think only Willie Cauley-Stein would for sure beat the 3.3 3/4 court time. 

Other comments

This analysis is not the complete way to pick a player, but it might help. Based on this, I am more interested in Terry Rozier than I had been.

There are also a lot of long, athletic wings in this draft. I think this might mean that, in a few years, there will be at least a couple guys on playoff teams with really good contracts that we ask "How did that many teams skip over him." 

 

 

[treytalkssports.comParticipant]

 I think I combed through the entire list, but did I missed anything? 

Of the players who did not participate in the athletic testing, who do you think would have made the lists? 

 

[treytalkssports.comParticipant]

 I think I combed through the entire list, but did I missed anything? 

Of the players who did not participate in the athletic testing, who do you think would have made the lists? 

 

[SgtMcSquigglesParticipant]

The thing about no SG with above a 11.2 agility has ever been good is BS. Danny Green, Rodney Stuckey, Lance Stephenson, Keith Bogans, Avery Bradley, Jason Richardson, and Joe Johnson all have above that.

Other than I really enjoyed this post and I think Sykes and Connaughton were definitely the biggest winners of the combine.

I’m not sure how reliable the numbers are but at the 2014 UK pro day WCS was a complete freak with a max vert of 37", a 10.45 agility, and a 3.15 3/4 court. Even adjusting the times about .1 to account for UK trying to make their players look better WCS is still an incredible athlete.

 

 

[treytalkssports.comParticipant]

Interesting … I did not review his findings. That seemed off to me too, but he was pretty confident in it. Thanks for pointing that out. 

I feel like WCS is a for-sure rim protector/finisher in this league. I am a little concerned about his rebounding ability, but he seems like a Tyson Chandler Clone. 

 

 

[treytalkssports.comParticipant]

Interesting … I did not review his findings. That seemed off to me too, but he was pretty confident in it. Thanks for pointing that out. 

I feel like WCS is a for-sure rim protector/finisher in this league. I am a little concerned about his rebounding ability, but he seems like a Tyson Chandler Clone. 

 

 

[TheLastWordParticipant]

 Those aren’t particulary ringing endorsements. Those are either volume scorers on bad teams (Stuckey in Detroit), or good role players in a highly structured system (Green in SA).

[tblazer_NZParticipant]

Jason Richardson and Joe Johnson are more than what you just meantioned. Iso Joe is a multiple time AllStar

[tblazer_NZParticipant]

Jason Richardson and Joe Johnson are more than what you just meantioned. Iso Joe is a multiple time AllStar

[TheLastWordParticipant]

 Those aren’t particulary ringing endorsements. Those are either volume scorers on bad teams (Stuckey in Detroit), or good role players in a highly structured system (Green in SA).

[SgtMcSquigglesParticipant]

The thing about no SG with above a 11.2 agility has ever been good is BS. Danny Green, Rodney Stuckey, Lance Stephenson, Keith Bogans, Avery Bradley, Jason Richardson, and Joe Johnson all have above that.

Other than I really enjoyed this post and I think Sykes and Connaughton were definitely the biggest winners of the combine.

I’m not sure how reliable the numbers are but at the 2014 UK pro day WCS was a complete freak with a max vert of 37", a 10.45 agility, and a 3.15 3/4 court. Even adjusting the times about .1 to account for UK trying to make their players look better WCS is still an incredible athlete.

 

 

[MopgrassParticipant]

 Good analysis. I overrate athleticism, but for me, two of the most underrated players are Rozier and definitely Sykes. I even think Sykes had an off day. His hops are ridiculous on film. I think people got a little hung up on Rozier not passing and Sykes being able to fit in most overhead compartments. 

[MopgrassParticipant]

 Good analysis. I overrate athleticism, but for me, two of the most underrated players are Rozier and definitely Sykes. I even think Sykes had an off day. His hops are ridiculous on film. I think people got a little hung up on Rozier not passing and Sykes being able to fit in most overhead compartments. 

[Author]

Posts