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McDunkinAll NBA fans are depressed. The news that came out of this past week, namely the decertification of the Players’ Union, means that we will most likely not have an NBA season in ‘11-12. As Bill Simmons wrote last Friday, there is no one to like or truly side with in this whole mess—and that is really what the NBA Lockout has been, a complete and utter mess.
This has been one of the most poorly handled negotiations not only in sports history, but also in history in general. All of this is true, all of this is depressing, but it is the reality we are stuck with in this moment.
So, looking ahead to a lost season, I’ve listed the 10 players who will be the most affected by not being able to play. Opinions are purely subjective, but I feel that anyone who has followed the NBA over the past year will be able to see my logic, even if you disagree with it.
When looking at the NBA and sports in general, I tend to look at the larger story of an individual player rather than the specific stats. Like many people, the enjoyment I get from sports comes from the stories and the historical meaning that certain players provide, rather than the numbers. And I think that is important.
Obviously everyone has a lot to lose with this lockout, but here are the 10 players I feel who stand to lose the most without being able to play in ‘11-12.
10. Marc Gasol
This might seem like a strange entry to some people, but when you think about it, it actually makes a lot of sense. We were always wondering if Marc Gasol would live up to his potential or if the Grizzlies truly did give away Pau Gasol for nothing back in 2008. In the 2011 Playoffs, Marc finally touched on the ability many of his supporters saw in him. He averaged 15 points and 11 rebounds during the Grizzlies’ thrilling run to the Western Conference Semifinals, which in the process made them the most fun team to watch since the ’06-07 Golden State Warriors. Gasol and Zach Randolph completely anchored the front court and provided two great and completely different playing styles that frustrated the Spurs and the Thunder. Marc was steady every night and even showed the similar flair for passing (inside and out) that his brother Pau showcases on the Lakers. With so much momentum going into ‘11-12 and Memphis extending his qualifying offer, you knew that someone was going to offer him big money. And while that still may be the case when NBA play does resume, momentum means a lot in a sports society (or even society at large) that has such a short memory. Marc Gasol certainly doesn’t have the most to lose without a season, but he would have benefited greatly from a competitive bidding war had NBA play resumed as normal.
9. Dirk Nowitzki
“Wait a second,” you’ll probably say. “What does the best player on the defending champs, a player who just made an heroic and historical run to the title and vaulted himself up the All-Time Greats list have to possibly lose?” Well, sort of a lot. Like I said, momentum means a lot in the NBA and even though Dirk could benefit from the rest, I’m sure that he and the rest of the Mavericks were eager to defend their title. Pat Riley has often spoken of the disease of “Me” in defending champions, but that sort of illness didn’t seem like it would be possible in the DNA of Dirk and the Mavericks as they are currently constructed and they most likely would have had a good shot of repeating as champions. Now, though, when the NBA resumes next year, Kidd will be even older as will other vets like Jason Terry and Shawn Marion and while those guys are savvy enough to keep themselves in game shape without regular play, there is no accounting for the power of time on an athlete’s body. The Mavs may benefit from the extended time off and approach the next NBA season with the fervor of defending champs, but after a torturous and messy lockout, Dirk and the Mavs may lost the hard-earned swagger they would have carried into ‘11-12 as the defending NBA Champions.
8. Derrick Williams/Kyrie Irving
OK, I know these are two different players, but their collective pro experience only really makes them one full NBA player. Fine, if you want to get technical than this list has eleven players on it. Sue me!
Anyway, both Irving and Williams had a lot to prove in the ‘11-12 season. They were the top two picks in a draft that was regarded as the weakest draft class in NBA history. Irving had only played a handful of games for Duke as a freshman and though he was impressive, there were significant questions about how good he would actually be in the NBA; how high his ceiling was. Williams showcased his talents on a national stage during the 2011 NCAA Tournament, especially against Duke in the Sweet 16, where he was basically dominant: hitting threes, grabbing ferocious rebounds and killing morale with powerful dunks. Many people thought he should have been the number one pick instead of going to Minnesota at number two where he joined a confused front line with a lot of overlap. Both Irving and Williams were probably itching to get on to the floor and prove their worth and make their case as the best player from the Draft. Now their rookie seasons are indefinitely postponed and the pundits have more time to wonder and they have to continue to endure waiting to play in their first NBA game. And like Tom Petty said, “waiting is the hardest part.”
7. Carlos Boozer
Poor Carlos Boozer. Alright fine maybe not “poor Carlos Boozer,” but he definitely loses a lot without an NBA season in ‘11-12. Boozer was one of the most high profile free agents in the Summer of 2010 and he landed with a Chicago Bulls team where we was a perfect fit alongside Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose. He had to battle back from injury, but he helped the Bulls to the best record in the Eastern Conference. But Boozer disappeared in the Playoffs, especially against the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals. Some said his disappearance was due to nagging injuries, some questioned his fitness and still others questioned his overall ability. If there was anyone who was anxious to get on the court and let his play silence the critics, it was Boozer. Now, he has to keep those doubts swirling in his head while he gets another year older. And age is not on his side at this point. Alas, poor Carlos!
6. Rudy Gay
Before the Grizzlies went on their exciting run in the Playoffs led by Randolph and Gasol, the focal point of the team was talented wingman Rudy Gay. Gay had been an effortless player at UConn. He played so smoothly that sometimes you questioned if he was even trying, which might have explained the underachieving 2006 UConn team. But in the ‘10-11 season, Gay was proving his worth as a franchise player. He had learned lessons in teamwork, effort and dedication from the young value driven 2010 US FIBA team and was ready to lead. He was having a fine season (19.8 ppg and 6.2 rpg) before injuring his shoulder in February. When the Grizzlies forged a new identity and had continued success without him, there were some questions about Gay’s actual worth to the team. The ‘11-12 season would have been the litmus test to see if Gay’s return to the lineup would disrupt the fantastic chemistry the Grizzlies found in the 2011 Playoffs. Instead, Rudy’s role and future with Memphis remain a painful question mark.
5. Blake Griffin
As we all know, Blake Griffin, everyone’s new favorite player, had a tremendous ‘10-11 season. In his first full NBA season Griffin averaged 22.5 ppg and 12.1 rpg, had a streak of 27 double-doubles, was named to the All-Star team and blew countless minds with his dunks, including his Jumping Over the Kia dunk in the Dunk Contest. For a few months, America’s National Pastime became watching Baron Davis lob alley-oops to Blake. The excitement was off the charts and you found yourself smiling and laughing each time. In the past 30 years there are only four other rookies who garnered that much excitement and attention: Jordan, Shaq, Iverson and LeBron. And really, the overwhelming awe at Blake was closer to Jordan-mania than anything LeBron attracted in 2003. The question that remained for Blake after the season was whether or not he could repeat his performance. Even as Blake was turning our brains to mush with dunks, we were all holding our breath for his safety after his knee injury before his intended rookie season in ‘09-10. Without a regularly scheduled ‘11-12 season, we are left wondering if Blake can do it all again or if ‘10-11 was some glorious aberration due to the stars and his health aligning. Maybe having Blake on the list is more of an elaboration on what we are losing, because, I mean, don’t you just want to see some new Blake dunks?
4. Chris Paul
I love Chris Paul (hated him when he was in college). You love Chris Paul. Mark Jackson loves Chris Paul. Jeff Van Gundy loves Chris Paul. He is an amazing basketball player and he truly does play point guard the right way. He is a textbook facilitator with the same recognition of the moment that Isiah had and yet still has another gear for innovation that maybe we haven’t ever seen before. But after arthroscopic knee surgery in 2010, there were nagging questions as to whether or not he would be the same dominant player he was. Paul’s performance against the Lakers in the First Round of the 2011 Playoffs silenced a lot of those doubts. Paul’s Game 4 Performance will probably go down as “The Clinic Game.” In Game 4, Paul had 27 points, 13 rebounds and 15 assists and just toyed with the Lakers overall. I mean, it felt like every player on the court was on a string and that Paul controlled both his own teammates and the Lakers’ players. Seriously, rewatch the game. Paul’s series long performance, leading a Hornets team that should have been swept to a six-game scare, was truly the stuff of legend. After that series, it seemed that Paul was back at the peak of his powers and that he would enter ‘11-12 fully healthy, dynamic and heady as ever. And yet, his full ascension back to the top of the point guard head is postponed and he still has to wait to prove if he truly is back and is worth signing to LeBron deal or a potential Dwight Howard deal. Again, momentum is key and Paul was riding high after the ‘10-11 season.
3. Kobe Bryant
Kobe Bryant is an elder statesman at 33 years old. He has played in the League for 17 seasons. He is as heady as they come and has even taken on a Jordanesque transformation in his game with the development of his pivot moves. Yet, Kobe is on the decline. He looked tired and old at times last year while still making some of the sharpest decisions on the court. Though he did go to Germany for secret, experimental knee surgery that his supposed to revitalize his legs, time is Kobe’s greatest opponent now. Losing a year means everything to him, which is why he might be the most frustrated NBA player at the moment. His drive to compete mixed with his ticking clock and the delays of the lockout is probably driving him insane. Kobe knows history and is at the cusp of some extremely rarified air and any time lost only hinders that. Kobe’s losses due to the lockout are fairly simple and probably the most humanistic out of anyone’s. They are directly tied to time passing and our natural inclination to fight against it.
2. Dwyane Wade
Wade is my favorite player in the NBA, so naturally I am the most afraid for him. He is in a similar situation as Kobe. Wade will turn 30 in January and his physical, almost foolishly driven, play has definitely taken its toll on his body. If he hadn’t been even slightly hampered by his hip in the Finals I still feel that the Heat win that series. Time is not on Wade’s side and unlike Kobe, who really has nothing left to prove, Wade still has the weight of the entire ante of the Miami Heat on his shoulders. His leadership in LeBron’s strange absence in the Finals has bought him some rope, but he still has a small margin for error. And after the disappointment of the 2011 Finals, any continued time passing only adds to the mental pain of the loss. And still he has to keep on eye on the great clock of Time staring at him and the decisions he has made in his style of play. Like Rafael Nadal in tennis, perhaps his inspiring style of play has taken years from his career. Like I said, I love Wade and believe he has plenty of prime left, but I can’t ignore the other side of what I see. I can’t ignore the possibility of the truth tugging at my shirt. (I don’t mean Paul Pierce either.)
1. LeBron James
Who else would it have been? LBJ. Public Enemy No. 1. The most scrutinized athlete on the planet. I was a Heat-backer for all of last season. I thought people overplayed the struggle between LeBron and Wade. I thought people misplaced their own desires on LeBron and crucified him for things they shouldn’t have (obviously The Decision was awful, that goes without saying). But I cannot, absolutely not, explain what happened to him in the Finals. It was baffling. I’m not going to call him a choker or take some sort of satisfaction in his short comings as one would with A-Rod (his closest sports comparison) because LeBron contains come childish innocence, some unawareness, that A-Rod never seemed to have and that makes LeBron slightly easier to forgive. Maybe I’m wrong, but I need to find something to describe why I want to have faith in him. Perhaps its because he captures the imagination more than any player in the NBA or more than any other egotistical-seeming athlete like A-Rod. Even though I don’t love his decisions or his overall style of play, there is something good in LeBron that wants to improve, he just doesn’t completely seem to grasp its total possibility yet.
All of this aside, LeBron more or less blew the Finals. Bosh held up his end of the bargain and Wade left blood and sweat everywhere. If LeBron showed up and played even average that has to swing at least two games. And because his lack of presence was so egregious and because his personality is so present, he has to bear the brunt of the criticism and the scrutiny. He is the one who “took his talents to South Beach” only to fail. Now, a window that seemed open forever already may be closing with a lost season in ‘11-12. This is the man that needs to be on the court sooner than everyone. He needs to succeed. I’m not going to cut him slack because I understand the philosophy of the fan and the consumer wanting him to fulfill their expectations and desires, but any professional, any person with a recognition of History, Time and Circumstance knows what they have to do to succeed. And no one would compete at the highest level and want the best if they didn’t want all the success we want for them. Our desire is not something forged int total darkness. LeBron’s failures can be remedied and since they seem to be so directly tied to his ability to be present in the big moment, only he can do the fixing. And the only way to do that is to play. And he can’t.
*****
Going through this list, the most frustrating thing I’ve realized is how many storylines and themes have been put on pause. Even in this list of 11 players, there are nearly 100 different stories that I am waiting to see play out. I haven’t even touched on Derrick Rose, the Spurs, Westbrook and Durant, the rise of James Harden, the Celtics, the Blazers and Brandon Roy, Dwight Howard or the Knicks. And so we’re all depressed, we’re all losers and the waiting is definitely the hardest part.
http://www.slamonline.com/online/nba/lockout-2011/2011/11/losers-of-the-lockout/2/
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