[bt102Participant]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2907034-how-to-spot-an-nba-draft-bust

Really good article. The catch is at the end when Wasserman says the players that stand out as potential busts already. There the players that either teams really love or fans are super in love with.

[Dazzling Dunks and Basketball BloopersParticipant]

Interesting article. I agree with some of it but I feel like the author was reaching a bit when he got to the “no bankable skill” part. A lot of players he used as examples were thought to have a bankable skill at the time of the draft but it just didn’t translate the way they hoped. You could make the argument that guys like Giannis and kawhi didn’t have specific bankable skills when they entered the league either. When it comes to the draft you do your homework and scout the best you can, but so much of it is just a crapshoot and everyone is bound to make mistakes.

[bt102Participant]

Kawhi came into the league with a lot of questions. They were both athlete freaks though. There are always exceptions to the rule.

[ZouldiersParticipant]

Read that article, I have to agree on some of them. I mean you need at least one ELITE skill to thrive in the NBA and the rest of your game will follow suit.

[OhCanada-Participant]

Good read but a very opinionated article. I find myself disagreeing with something in just about every paragraph. Whats with the Buddy Hield hate?

[bt102Participant]

I think its more that he’s 27 already and he isn’t going to get better than he already is. He shouldn’t have been top 10 but I don’t think he’s a bust. It definitely points things out though.

[OhCanada-Participant]

Thats my point. He won’t get better because he’s 27? I’ve always found that notion ridiculous.

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

Bonner, I remember you said that about one of my old NBADraft.net articles. What does that even mean? It literally is an opinion article! Yes, he uses opinion mixed with facts, research, but what more do you want, gospel? I see you bring up Buddy Hield at least as something you personally disagree with (think you didn’t even give me the pleasure of listing what you disagreed with), but he makes an absolutely valid point in bringing up Buddy in that instance.

I think even you, a Canadian (like myself), would admit that Jamal Murray and Buddy Hield were pretty similar in terms of what their strength’s and concerns were. Murray also had more point guard skills, Buddy had the proven track record of that huge senior year (though we didn’t know he was actually a year older than we even thought he was). Still, it is at your risk to take the scoring guard who is 22 over a potentially similar prospect who is 19.

Here is why I think mentioning Buddy’s age is absolutely justified. Which player do you think will be better by their potential next deal? By Buddy’s next deal, he will be 33 and Jamal will be 29 (this is going into a potential new contract). It is not that Buddy cannot get better, but he likely has fewer big years as compared to Murray. That is why it is a bit scary taking an older player, because it has been shown that most players best years tend to be between 26-31. Again, not all players, certainly are exceptions, but it seems that most players tend to be at their best between those years.

32 tends to be the magic age of players on a decline. Am sure you will try to name exceptions, there are some. LeBron James and Chris Paul certainly were fantastic this season, but, they are also two of the best players of all-time. My guess is Buddy Hield, while he still could have a few really good years ahead of him, it certainly seems like he will not have close to as many as Jamal Murray, who I think we can agree already is the better player.

So, opinionated it may be, but it is also backed up with the fact that age can play a major factor in later returns. Buddy Hield also has a much more favorable contract than Murray moving forward, but I would absolutely bet on Murray being the better player of the two when it is all said and done. Now, Hield may not be a bust, but it is just an example. Look at a lot of the other names he listed and tell me if it is still opinionated. I more think Hield over Murray is just saying one may have been a better pick than the other with age playing a factor as opposed to calling Hield a bust. I think you, Captain Canada, could admit, in retrospect, would have been probably pretty good to take Murray over Hield. Which was something I was thankfully right about at the time of the actual draft, a rare win, lol.

[OhCanada-Participant]

“Watching Jamal Murray cook in the playoffs brings back memories of the New Orleans Pelicans passing on the 19-year-old 2-guard for another shooting guard in Buddy Hield, a four-year college player who’s now 27 and coming off the bench.”

“Noah and Redick stand out as obvious exceptions. Otherwise, it’s mostly a group of players who’ve caused a lot of regrets.”

This is what I am referring to when I say Buddy Hield hate. Hield got benched because Luke Walton has no clue how to coach an NBA team. Picking Hield over Murray was the wrong choice but don’t forget back then at the time during the draft the majority of this board thought Murray would be a bust and should play SG. Theres no telling how Murray would have developed with New Orleans and if he was traded to Sacramento for Cousins the same way Hield was who knows how his development would have gone.

Fact remains that Hield shot 3.8/9.6 for 39% from three this year. He scored 19 points per game in just over 30 minutes coming off the bench for half the year. He just had one of the best three point shooting seasons in NBA history and were actually sitting here letting him be called a bust. Come on.

https://www.nbadraft.net/forums/topic/jamal-murray-vs-buddy-hield/

https://www.nbadraft.net/forums/topic/can-jamaal-murray-play-pg/

[OhCanada-Participant]

Walton clearly had an issue with Hield. I made this thread live watching the game.

https://www.nbadraft.net/forums/topic/kings-have-to-fire-luke-walton/

[canadabasketballisrisingParticipant]

Lack of outside shot, with a questionable work ethic

[sniperParticipant]

even if Buddy Hield doesn’t get any better, he’s a 20 ppg scorer, who shoots above 40% from 3 for his career (at very high volume). On a better team he woudn’t get as many touches, but he’d probably get better looks from deep … he might be a Duncan Robinson/JJ Redick-level shooter on a team with stars who draw double-teams. Getting a player like that with the #6 pick is nothing to complain about.

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

I don’t think he is calling Buddy Hield a bust, though he could have explained it better. He is saying that between two players seen as shooting/scoring guards (this is considering that not many people felt Jamal Murray was a NBA PG, even with having more of those skills than Hield) that the one who was thought to be born in 1993 (and it turns out was born in 1992) was taken over the one born in 1997. This is why you usually have to give rookie classes a few years before evaluating them. But look at all of the lottery examples of older aged seniors who one probably wouldn’t take in the lottery in re-drafts that he lists!

Do not let a minor example that probably is just more comparing two guys who went 6 and 7 in the draft to seeing the ultimate point, that older players may give a good start but have possible diminishing returns. I think in a 2016 re-draft, Hield still goes top 10. Still, a number of players in that same draft class have passed him, some likely will and the player he was taken directly in front of the second best player on a team making noise in the play-offs.

Meanwhile, Buddy was the second leading scorer on a team that did not make the play-offs, playing a bench scoring role for them after signing an 88 million dollar extension. Obviously his role was different this season, but not exactly the best sign that he was not exactly better AFTER signing the contract. He still could get better, it just does not seem like you are likely to get the same returns as Murray and after this deal, he is likely to be past his prime (as I mentioned in a post above, most players prime seasons are between ages 26-31).

[BothTeamsPlayedHard-Participant]

The age thing goes both ways. First off, there are no shortage of All-Stars, and very good players, who came to the NBA at 22 or older (if you want to make the argument about the difference between draft night and league debut as mattering, please go elsewhere). In these playoffs, and off the top of my head, Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Jimmy Butler, Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol, Fred VanVleet, and Robert Covington all come to mind. This doesn’t include role players or specialists who are unquestionably valueable but not lottery pick worthy like Danny Green, Jae Crowder, Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn, etc. I would also argue that given Taurean Prince was traded for a first round pick and then given $14-15 million per year, his status as a questionable draft pick might have to be taken up with Brooklyn. Also, if you look at the lowest performing lottery picks in recent years, and I will spare the 2019 Draft class, you are looking at Mo Bamba, Kevin Knox, Jerome Robinson, Frank Ntilikina, Dennis Smith Jr, Markelle Fultz, Malik Monk, Dragan Bender, Marquese Chriss, Thon Maker, Georgios Papagiannis, Jakob Poltl, Denzel Valentine, Mario Hezonja, Emmanuel Mudiay, Stanley Johnson, and Trey Lyles, it is hard to deny that the overwhelming majority entered the draft in the first year they were eligible. Robinson was a junior, Valentine was a senior, many were not all that productive in their year in college or at senior level abroad, and numerous were Knicks so it isn’t just an age thing. This is why it is important for people to understand that data is not a short cut. Obi Toppin was a 6’2″ junior in high school. He entered Dayton at 180 lbs. To raise the question that might now “have the same window to improve” or is “closer to his ceiling” ignores all context. He is a late bloomer physically. While it is rare for a kid to sprout up six or seven inches in his late teens and early twenties, it is part of the story of numerous basketball players. It is also why the desire of some to hold onto prep rankings as a true gauge of potential and ability (and my guess is also to have that “FIRST” culture) have missed on so many guys. Toppin is not a sure thing, no one in this class is, but it is a bad argument to think that because he was short and scrawny for most of high school that his current status as a 6’9″ athletic freak is less meaningful for the future.

The “late riser” assumes perfect information and a general consensus for both the media and teams, which just is not the case. Let us say that there is a somewhat normal pre-draft combine process in October. Jay Scrubb will walk into a combine group where he is the best athlete. I don’t think that is an especially controversial take. He is also coming out of a juco where he is playing against guys who will be playing a wide range of basketball this winter ranging from high D1, low D1, D2, D3, NAIA, and the YMCA. It is very easy to be dismissive of juco game tape, but if you get him in the gym with fellow draft prospects and he is the best athlete assessments can change quickly, and there not necessarily be anything wrong in doing so. I am less familar with Karim Mane coming out of Canada, but he could be another candidate to “seemingly rise” but really just offer more information on a player teams did not have enough on. Similarly, guys like Pokusevski and Bolmaro did not play truly professional basketball last season. Some of that is revealing. If Olympiacos and Barcelona did not think they were ready to contribute for their teams, then what makes you think they have a chance of making it in the NBA this year? On the other hand, if they perform well in drills, it might confirm pre-existing biases. Pokusevski probably isn’t worthy of being a first round pick, but John Hammond still runs the Magic and has the 15th pick. Would that be a “late riser” or John Hammond going to type?

There is some cherry-picking of guys for some of the other categories. Bam Adebayo had 57 blocks in 38 games at Kentucky. Jahlil Okafor had 54 in 38. Montrezl Harrell had 42 in his last year at Louisville. Domantas Sabonis only blocked 43 shots in two years, Mo Bamba had 111 in one with a 13.1 block percentage. Thon Maker was a projected fly swatter, though nothing over high school to back it up. For the life of me, I don’t see how someone thinks Deni Avdija doesn’t have a bankable skill. He isn’t a shooter right now, and that will be problematic if he gets drafted and is told to play largely off the ball. That doesn’t make him less of a creator. You can argue that there is risk in drafting an athlete and thinking he will turn into a good basketball player. There are examples of it working and not. Like with anything, there is a point where it makes sense to roll the dice. That is not the category Avdija falls in.

[bt102Participant]

He did say there were exceptions to that rule. I will also point out that those group of players that you mentioned, only LIllard and McCollum went in the lottery. CJ in a weak draft class, similar to this one, and LIllard could have gone out before, so his floor was already pretty high, and it seemed to get higher when his GM’s saw personal workouts with him and how hard he worked. I know that my Jazz tried to trade up and getting even though they didn’t even have a pick that draft. I remember Donte DiVincenzo was a BIG RISER from the tournament and combine as well. Wasn’t even on radar until that unbelievable tournament game. There are exceptions but in general it looks to be the case.

I also do agree, I think Avdija does have some level of skill but the shooting is the massive concern with him. The other 4 I am very worried about long term. You talk to any of my friends, I have been shooting down Precious and Okoro for several months now.

And yes, Luke Walton is a bad coach and has been for a while. I will also mention that Sacramento started winning with Bogdan in the lineup over Hield. Hield is better than what Walton has been displaying him as but I do also see Hield as somewhat overrated but a team like the Sixers should really be trying to target him.

[BothTeamsPlayedHard-Participant]

Forgot about Josh Jackson when it came to recent low performing draft picks. Might be close the the lowest of the low.

[BothTeamsPlayedHard-Participant]

Teams knew who Donte DiVincenzo was.prior to his final NCAA Tournament. He played with no fewer than five future NBA players in any of his years at Villanova. People know that there aren’t sleepers at Duke or Kentucky, but somehow still think that scouts are unaware that Villanova is churning out players. Please.

When someone tells me something that makes Okoro a significantly different prospect from Josh Okogie, I will re-consider him as a worthy lottery pick. Okogie was a better college player, and has value in a limited role in the NBA. Both are similar in size and fantastic athletes. Neither have the skill set to be a major component in a rebuilding team, and heaven help the people comparing Okoro to Jimmy Butler. Achiuwa and Williams have enough potential where there is a point at which it is a worthwhile shot. In a spot where Achiuwa is not handed minutes and taught to play in a system with rhyme and rhythm, he could come around. If he goes to a rebuilding team where they just throw out young guys to give the impression of hope, he will play himself out of the league. Patrick Williams most be the safest gamble of the group because he has the size, athleticism, and character so that a team in the playoffs with a G-League setup can bring him along. He would be a good gamble for Brooklyn. Maybe he could eventually succeed Taurean Prince. Maybe he could bring a different dynamic to the San Antonio forwards. The have brought Lonnie Walker and Keldon Johnson along slowly, and you started to see some return in Orlando. I don’t bring Toronto would bring him along well as they have done well in reading what spots and how quickly to bring along Terence Davis, Matt Thomas, Chris Boucher, and Oshae Brissett.

Like I said, Avdija’s shot is a concern. Him standing off the ball when Zach LaVine or Colin Sexton go one-on-one would be a problem. In a more sophisticated setup, his ability to move and create could allow to contribute while working on his shot.

[OhCanada-Participant]

I’m not a big fan of Okoro either tbh. Is 6’5 with a 6’8 wingspan but gets compared to OG Anunoby who is 6’8 with a 7’2 wingspan. Thats a very big difference. But who knows, maybe he plays great.

[Author]

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