[NihochuParticipant]

In his first 9 years in the league he has 19045 points , kobe had 13934 in his first 9 years if my calculations are correct , and he is sitting on 5th place in all time time scoring. How many points/assists/rebounds do you think he will end up getting and in what place will he be in all time scoring ?

[dede21]

 36666

[JoeWolf1]

I’d guess he’d at least hit 30,000 considering he’s never averaged under 20 ppg and he came into the league at age 18.  It’s hard to predict one’s health and desire in their 30’s, but he’s capable of being the all time leading scorer, I just don’t think he will.

[aamir543Participant]

Well, I look at age rather than years in the league, so after the season where he was 27 years old, he had 16, 866, Lebron is about 2,200 ahead of him, It’s really hard to predict these things, but I’d say that if Kobe plays 4-5 more years at a high level, or even a modereatly high level, the record is his, but Lebron and Durant will both challange it.

[dede21]

 Well he is a better athlete, outside of Clyde Drexler not many guys kept their athleticsm into their mid thirties

[joecheck88Participant]

 He should definitely be between 30 & 35k barring injury and a long career. He will probably be third behind Kareem and Malone. He won’t keep his scoring up like Kobe is because he isn’t as skilled as a scorer but he has such an advantage scoring at least 20ppg per year every year that he will surpass Kobe at some point assuming Kobe is human and slows down at some point soon. 

[bobo33-15Participant]

Lebron is actually 47th all time and 9th amoung active players in scoring. the average of retirement in the 2000’s was 35.9, but we’ll say 36, which means that Lebron will play in about 9 more seasons (as he is currently 27ish). Assuming he kepts a somewhat constant level of performance he would total 35973.89 points for his career. He is a specially player but I think this guesstimation is being quite generous as it doesn’t take into account the aging process. Also who knows what decisions he’ll make in the future. might try his hand at baseball hahah

 

 

 

[bobo33-15Participant]

people say he isn’t as skilled a scorer but he has about 3k more points then melo, whom is probably the best scorer of his draft class and currrently one of the best in the nba. also they have played an almost similar amount of games (689 to melo’s 646 games)

 

[bobo33-15Participant]

Hey MJ was pretty athletic for a 30-something but i agree with aamir, can’t really predict these things. BUt yes kobe is waaay to competitive to let himself slip, he is defo gonna stick around for a few more years

[JoeWolf1]

 I’ve always thought Lebron has the potential to shift to a high post oriented power forward, like Paul Gasol, as his athletic ability and speed takes a hit in his mid 30’s.

KG also converted to a stretch 4 as he slowed down and wasn’t quick enough to play the bulk of his minutes as small forward. 

I don’t think he’ll be a 25+ ppg scorer, later in his career like Kobe who is still very much a wing, but at 275lbs at age 26 or 27 you’ll have to think he could be pushing 290 in his 30s’.  I think his future at that stage of his career is not as an elite wing scorer, but a very skilled pick and pop/high post forward.

 

[SpacegrassParticipant]

Lebron has the potential to get 40,000 points , 10,000 rebounds , and 10,000 assists more than anybody.  He is built physically in a way that I can see him playing 20 years in the league.  Now he will have to play 20 years and stay unbelievably healthy but if he takes care of his body he has a shot no doubt.  If he can develop more of a jump shooting game as he gets older that will go a long way to him getting past Kareem.  After his 10th year which is next year he will likely have over 21,000 points and over 5,000 rebounds and assists each.  If Lebron can play 76 games a season for his last 10 years after next season and average 25ppg 6.5reb and 6.5ast he will make the 40,000 points , 10,000 rebound , and 10,000 assists club which would be amazing.  Hopefully if he achieves that he wins more than one or two titles because he will be looked at as a perimeter Wilt Chamberlain.  A statistacal marvel that makes you ask your self why didn’t he win more titles?

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

But, let’s assume he plays another 9 seasons averaging around 22-23 ppg playing around 70 games per season. That is around 14,000 points right there, so I could see him getting close to 33,000-35,000 points. Of course I would love to see someone challenge Kareem’s all time record of 38,387 but I think that would just take too much going right in a league that has become full of injury later in ones career.

The amazing thing with Kareem was not just his having played 20 years, but it was his durability during that span. 1560 games is an average of 78 per year. He only played less than 70 games in two seasons, never fewer than 60. LeBron has been incredibly durable as well, at 689 games he was only 4 behind Cap at this point in their careers. 19,045 and 27.6 ppg for LeBron is behind the 20,238 and 29.2 ppg for Kareem, though.

For the next 11 years of his career, Kareem averaged 20.9 ppg in 867 games. I think their is little sign of LeBron averaging fewer than 20 ppg, but I do not know if he plays as many games or for as long. LeBron is 3 years younger than Kareem was in his 9th season, so his scoring decline might not be as great, but it is still going to happen. I would not be surprised if LeBron averaged more points per game than Kareem at the end of his career, but I think Kareem’s scoring record could very well stand.

Many will point to Kevin Durant having a better chance than LeBron at surpassing Kareem’s points record. Durant is actually averaging fewer points than LeBron through his first 5 years (27.3 to 26.3 in LeBron’s favor), but he is a player who could maintain a very high scoring average over the next few years. It is indeed possible that he has a few more 30 ppg seasons, but I believe it might be more plausible that he hang around his current totals of 28.

The reason is that he has a young team with other capable scorers in Russell Westbrook and James Harden. To me, this could make it difficult for Durant to put up the huge scoring averages people may expect from him. I think he is capable of having some monster scoring years, but I find that when a team is good and complete, they may not need that to win games. Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady and Allen Iverson tended to have their biggest scoring seasons when their teams had very few options besides them. So, it is not that Kevin Durant does not have the capability of averaging 32-35 ppg, he does. I just think it will be unnecessary since his team has gained a winning formula without him having to do so (at least in the regular season).

So, while LeBron James and Kevin Durant certainly have the capability to challenge Kareem’s record, I think in the end they might both come up short. The first 10 years are the easy part, those last 10 years are what make the major difference. Kareem played an amount of games during which to put a healthy lead between himself and the next closest challenger. He averaged 28.6 ppg over his first 10 seasons in the league, likely dwarfing the totals of both LeBron and Durant. Both players could have less of a decline over the next 10 years and average more points, but the game totals are what lead me to believe that they will have a tough time catching the record. So, I say both score over 30,000, but Kareem’s record looks safe.

[phila9012Participant]

I think he could get 30 to 35 thousand points and 8,000 rebounds and assists. He could get more rebounds than assists if he starts playing more of a power forward role. I think he could play till he is 40 because he now has a post game, and doesn’t have to rely on his athleticism as much.

I think that he will end up having a legacy similar to wilt chamberlain. They both had incedible gifts, and both put up great stats. wilt only won 2 championships, which isnt many for how good he was. LeBron should win one or 2 championships. Lebron is more wilt than jordan. Not how they play, but their careers and legacy’s have more in common.

[joecheck88Participant]

 Ok he has more points than Melo but Lebron is in his physical prime. I just don’t see him scoring like Kobe at the same age. He could still be getting 22 a game but not the almost 29 Kobe just had. 

[lolyouthParticipant]

I will say, people won’t be as concerned with how many points/rebounds/assists he gets in his career, as they will about how many championships he gets. His career will ultimately be defined by how many CHAMPIONSHIPS he wins.

[Tongue-Out-Like-23Participant]

If healthy for the rest of his career, 38k-40k.  He may have 2-3 more 30PPG scoring seasons under his belt as Wade begins to age a bit.  I think he has a solid 9 years left and if he’s already at 19k with a shortened season, a 20 PPG season, and a 23 PPG season, one can assume that he will score more than 19k in the next 9 years.  I’m going with 40k.

[IndianaBasketballParticipant]

LeBron James has been durable his entire career thus far, so I expect it to continue. Though he looks like he gets heavier every year. You wonder when the wear and tear will start to show on his knees.

The big thing I can’t wait to see with James is how he’ll age. He’s not highly skilled offensively, so what will he do once he loses his athleticism and is no longer able to speed past or jump over people? The most natural thing to suggest is he’ll be a power forward, but his post game still isn’t very impressive. I don’t think he’ll age as gracefully as Kobe Bryant or Michael Jordan because he’s not as skilled.

I think Kevin Durant has a great chance simply for the fact that this guy is going to average 28-30 points for a long time and he should age gracefully. He’s so skilled offensively and the height/length will still be there when his athleticism leaves. I expect him to take his game closer to the basket like Bryant and Dirk Nowitzki have as he gets older.

I know Bryant wouldn’t trade in his championships, but I wonder how many points he’d have if he wasn’t drafted to the Lakers, didn’t come off of the bench two years straight or play with arguably the most dominant center of all-time.

[mikeyvthedonParticipant]

You assume LeBron is going to play 76 games per year and average 27.6 ppg over his next 9 years? Because that is what he did in his first 9 and I just do not see it happening. Kobe Bryant has averaged 28.8 ppg over his last 8 years, but remember that he had a couple of seasons on teams that depended on him to score an obscene amount of points. Throw in the fact that Kobe’s thresh hold for pain is greater than any player I know, not to mention that he shoots a lot more than LeBron is probably planning too, looks like Kobe is on his own.

Most players tend to take a step back when they are in a situation that does not require huge scoring numbers. I think LeBron is going to do that. If Dwyane Wade is healthy next season (he has not been himself for a lot of this one), than I could see much more of scoring balance. In my mind, it is hard for me to see LeBron needing to score like he did the first 9 years of his career. You take away his rookie season, he is at 28.5 ppg. In my mind, he hoovers around the 25-27 mark for a few more years and eventually becomes much more of a facillitator down the line.

The key reason I do not believe LeBron scores as many points in his next 9 years as opposed to his first is probably less based on average than durability. I think LeBron’s scoring average in 9 years could still be above the 26 range (amazing), but I have little belief that he averages 76 games per year. Honestly, have the same worry with Kevin Durant. The fact that both players have been as durable as they have been is incredible to me. Just feel that eventually, there regular seasons will not be as long as they have been and they may both miss time. Do not wish that on either player, but feel it is certainly possible.

If LeBron is fully healthy and his durability remains, than he could definitely compete with Kareem’s scoring record. Just am not banking on it. He is in a situation where he has other capable scorers and will not need to do what he did in Cleveland that built his scoring average. Durant is much the same in OKC, though both he and LeBron could be put in situations with injuries where they do have to score more. Just think that this season will be kind of the norm for the next few years of scoring for both players.

Truly, I think LeBron and Durant are much more focused on winning than scoring. In doing so, I think both will probably be content without putting up the huge numbers they may be capable of and many on this board seem to believe they will. I think Durant is more likely to average 30 ppg again than LeBron, but only two players ever have averaged 30 ppg in a season and won the championship in that same season (MJ 3 times, Kareem once). These guys want to win championships and I think balanced scoring will be a good sign of that happening. The play-offs might be a different story, but the regular season will probably not be both guys going crazy. Just a prediction as far as what is best for both players careers as far as hopeful team success, ie. championships.

By the way, too early to give LeBron the Wilt label. He is 27 years old. Yes, he has yet to win a ring, but he is in a good situation and certainly looks like he will be competing for them for quite a while. He is not Michael, he is not Kobe, but I also think calling him Wilt Chamberlain makes very little sense. You may predict there legacies have more in common, they may at this point, but down the line, I am thinking LeBron might end up getting more rings than the Big Dipper.

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

Karl Malone played about 20 years in the league and still couldn’t pass Kareem.  I can see LeBron’s last few years being like a late prime Mailman.  Maybe not 30 points, but maybe 23 or 24.  Along with his rebounds and assists. 

I don’t see LeBron getting the all-time scoring record because I don’t think that he is really obsessed with that.  I think that is more Kobe’s thing. 

I can see LeBron focusing on winning titles and getting assists.  I don’t see him going out and trying to get 28 points every game or 30 points every game for another 8-9 years.  Jordan led the league in scoring for 10 years and some other good scoring years for the Bulls and couple for the Wizards and he is not even in the top 2. 

LeBron would pretty much have to double his points total and play 9 more years for him to break that record.  He’s averaged 27 points in Miami which is slightly down from his overall scoring stats.  I don’t see him having a bunch more 28-30 point scoring seasons, which is what he will need to do to get the record.

I think that the record he has is sights on is the MVP record.  Kareem has six and if LeBron wins this year he will have 3.  I think he can get 3 more in his career and may even have a chance to get a record breaking 7. 

Someone else mentioned LeBron having 10,000 rebounds and 10,000 assists by the end of his career.  I think those might be goals of his.  A career line of 30,000 points, 10,000 rebounds, and 10,000 assists would be unbelievable.  That line along with 5 or 6 MVP trophies and 3 or 4 NBA titles is what I think LeBron is focused on more than getting the most points in NBA history.  

 

[SpacegrassParticipant]

Michael Jordan also essentially only played 13 full seasons and even at 30ppg he won’t touch that.  I feel like Lebron can have Karl Malone/Kareem type longevity and can easily average 25ppg the next 11 seasons.

[rickybobbyParticipant]

 If Jordan didnt get hurt his 2nd year and only play 18 games, and didnt retire twice could have easily elcipsed Kareem in my opinion. Jordan basically missed 6 years of his career. He could have easily made up the 6,000pt lead Kareem has. Lebron got a good chance if he stays healty. Durant also has a good chance. But whats going to slow him down is he isnt aggressive enough at times, but manly because of the development of Harden and Westbrook. Another reason could be his size and frame isnt big so he’s going to wear down quicker. 

[SpacegrassParticipant]

Why is woowoo getting negative votes?  He is exactly right on Jordan and instead of being a punk ass and doing a stupid thumbs down , why don’t you make a valid counterpoint to his argument if you feel different.

[FastAndFuriousParticipant]

Lebron has a chance to do ALOT of special things, he could be the best to ever play the game if his health stays solid and he gets some rings, it’s really not that far fetched at all to me.

[phila9012Participant]

 We all know lebron should end up as a top 10 player with one maybe 2 championships. He will not be on Jordan’s level. Championships can sometimes be overrated. Championships are the difference between a top 5 player and a top 10 player. Championships take a team not one player. Lebron got the most out of his cavs teams. He had no help but managed to win 60 games, that is a great player, you cannot penalize lebron for the cavs front office being terrible.

[alex23Participant]

 i think lebrons rebounds and assists will go up and points will go down when he isnt as athletic anymore a similar transced to how wilt changed his game, becoming even more all round of a player…

[JunkYardDogParticipant]

 more than McGiffin…

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