[Dale WorthingtonParticipant]

TIER 1:
Oklahoma (3)
Iowa (1)
Michigan State (6)

TIER 2:
Maryland (9)
Kansas (11)
Nova (2)
Miami (15)
Xavier (18)
A&M (13)
USC (30)

Notice the absence of UNC, UVA, Providence, Iowa State, West Virginia, Baylor, Oregon, Purdue, The Ville, and Kentucky.

 

 

 

 

[Dale WorthingtonParticipant]

The # in parentheses = KenPom ranking.

 

[Dale WorthingtonParticipant]

The # in parentheses = KenPom ranking.

 

[Dazzling Dunks and Basketball BloopersParticipant]

 So usc is more of a final four contender than unc in your opinion? I can’t agree with that. Should be a wide open field this year though. Can’t wait to see what happens.

[Dazzling Dunks and Basketball BloopersParticipant]

 So usc is more of a final four contender than unc in your opinion? I can’t agree with that. Should be a wide open field this year though. Can’t wait to see what happens.

[Dale WorthingtonParticipant]

So here’s the thing…

I went back 18 years and looked at trends that were fulfilled by the vast majority of Final Four teams and one of those trends was defensive 3-point FG percentage. Approxmately 95% of the 72 teams over the last 18 years to reach the Final Four were in the top 200 in defending the 3.

UNC is 294th.

As strong as a team is UNC is, that glaring hole will surely prevent them from reaching the Final Four in my opinion.

 

 

 

 

 

[Dale WorthingtonParticipant]

So here’s the thing…

I went back 18 years and looked at trends that were fulfilled by the vast majority of Final Four teams and one of those trends was defensive 3-point FG percentage. Approxmately 95% of the 72 teams over the last 18 years to reach the Final Four were in the top 200 in defending the 3.

UNC is 294th.

As strong as a team is UNC is, that glaring hole will surely prevent them from reaching the Final Four in my opinion.

 

 

 

 

 

[ncballer]

If you are basing this off kenpom, UNC and Louisville need to be on the list.

[ncballer]

If you are basing this off kenpom, UNC and Louisville need to be on the list.

[Dale WorthingtonParticipant]

It’s not based on the KenPom. I just listed the KenPom rankings so people would get a feel how good each team objectively is. I love the KenPom but I used several trends to arrive at that list.

One of those is defending the 3 (approximately 95% of the 72 Final Four teams over the last 18 years were in the top 200; UNC currently is a paltry 294th).

Another key trend was assist/turnover ratio. Over the same period, approx. 95% of squads were in the top 100 in A/TO. The Ville currently stands at 129.

So Louisville has a shot to work their way back into Final Four contention in my model but UNC is pretty much dead in the water.

 

 

[Dale WorthingtonParticipant]

It’s not based on the KenPom. I just listed the KenPom rankings so people would get a feel how good each team objectively is. I love the KenPom but I used several trends to arrive at that list.

One of those is defending the 3 (approximately 95% of the 72 Final Four teams over the last 18 years were in the top 200; UNC currently is a paltry 294th).

Another key trend was assist/turnover ratio. Over the same period, approx. 95% of squads were in the top 100 in A/TO. The Ville currently stands at 129.

So Louisville has a shot to work their way back into Final Four contention in my model but UNC is pretty much dead in the water.

 

 

[ncballer]

 Very interesting.  Have you established an economic model or something to predict this?  As a UNC fan it has been frustrating watching teams go off from 3 on us.  I do think from watching every game this season we have been a little unlucky in that regard.  I can think of several games for example when someone has hit a ridiculous 37 foot 3 pointer at the buzzer of the half.  

If you have created some predictive model I would love to hear the metrics you are using.  A buddy of mine did one to predict where recruits go and it has been 100% correct the past 5 UNC target he has ran it on.  I was thinking he was crazy, but he kept telling me Udoka was going to Kansas when at the time everyone was saying FSU.  That recruitment made me a believer.

 

[ncballer]

 Very interesting.  Have you established an economic model or something to predict this?  As a UNC fan it has been frustrating watching teams go off from 3 on us.  I do think from watching every game this season we have been a little unlucky in that regard.  I can think of several games for example when someone has hit a ridiculous 37 foot 3 pointer at the buzzer of the half.  

If you have created some predictive model I would love to hear the metrics you are using.  A buddy of mine did one to predict where recruits go and it has been 100% correct the past 5 UNC target he has ran it on.  I was thinking he was crazy, but he kept telling me Udoka was going to Kansas when at the time everyone was saying FSU.  That recruitment made me a believer.

 

[dmo21Participant]

Not trying to call you out, but how many of the Final Four teams fit your criteria of top 200 in defensive 3 point % and top 100 in assist to turnover ratio?

I see you made a call on Syracuse in one of your other posts. Good call. Too bad you were so down on UNC. But nobody is perfect! 

[dmo21Participant]

Not trying to call you out, but how many of the Final Four teams fit your criteria of top 200 in defensive 3 point % and top 100 in assist to turnover ratio?

I see you made a call on Syracuse in one of your other posts. Good call. Too bad you were so down on UNC. But nobody is perfect! 

[LazarusMunozParticipant]

 Never trust the predictions of a man named Dale

[LazarusMunozParticipant]

 Never trust the predictions of a man named Dale

[TheGuyParticipant]

 Coming from the guy who thought Samj Christon was better than Elfrid Payton. 

[TheGuyParticipant]

 Coming from the guy who thought Samj Christon was better than Elfrid Payton. 

[Dale WorthingtonParticipant]

 Sorry for not being right 100% of the time.

[Dale WorthingtonParticipant]

 Sorry for not being right 100% of the time.

[TWILL123Participant]

Interesting that you use just one disparaging stat to show why one team doesn’t have a chance to be a final four contender. Especially in a year where there have been more upsets than ever before. I am going to guess that this is another time that you aren’t going to be right, but that’s just me.

[Dale WorthingtonParticipant]

 It’s not just one disparaging stat. I used eight different stats/trends.

UNC made the grade in 7 of the 8.

[Dale WorthingtonParticipant]

 It’s not just one disparaging stat. I used eight different stats/trends.

UNC made the grade in 7 of the 8.

[TWILL123Participant]

Interesting that you use just one disparaging stat to show why one team doesn’t have a chance to be a final four contender. Especially in a year where there have been more upsets than ever before. I am going to guess that this is another time that you aren’t going to be right, but that’s just me.

[JudgeMeNotParticipant]

 conformation bias at it’s finest

[Dale WorthingtonParticipant]

You spelled ‘confirmation’ wrong. But how is that even confirmation bias? I came up with a set of criteria based on nearly 20 years of data (there were no biases) and UNC didn’t make it while those squads did. I’m not trying to confirm any bias, since everything I found was derived from objective statistical data.

 

[Dale WorthingtonParticipant]

You spelled ‘confirmation’ wrong. But how is that even confirmation bias? I came up with a set of criteria based on nearly 20 years of data (there were no biases) and UNC didn’t make it while those squads did. I’m not trying to confirm any bias, since everything I found was derived from objective statistical data.

 

[JudgeMeNotParticipant]

 conformation bias at it’s finest

[Hype Machine]

 Sorry Worthington.. but you lost me at your profile pic. 

Either you’re wearing an invisible straight jacket, or just trying way too hard to fit your arms in the frame.

 

 

 

[Hype Machine]

 Sorry Worthington.. but you lost me at your profile pic. 

Either you’re wearing an invisible straight jacket, or just trying way too hard to fit your arms in the frame.

 

 

 

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