[PulseGlazerParticipant]

I’ve been thinking a lot about the strengths and weaknesses of the various Western playoff teams, so here are those thoughts.

San Antonio is still good defensively, but not great.  Kawhi seems to be a main culprit here, unfortunately, as is their lack of length inside.  Kawhi gets caught ball watching a bit much, which forces defensive rotations, which then exposes said lack of length.  It isn’t a huge issue against Utah, but against a real point and pick point guard and a team with size (Lakers, maybe Clips), it could be.  The defense, however, isn’t a gambling one, focussed mostly on creating misses for their solid rebounders to set up a quick pace.  It isn’t quite a fast break on the other end, but Parker’s high screen and roll against a defense that isn’t set might be the best offensive weapon in the playoffs.  That’s hard to stop in the half-court, but nearly impossible when they push the ball.

Utah’s defense doesn’t impress me at all without Favors on the court.  Millisap is versatile, Big Al is fairly bad, but everyone else is still learning.  For such a young team, the lack of practice time had to hurt more on that end.  Still, Favors is becoming such a beast, it almost doesn’t matter.  Bold prediction: by next year’s playoffs, he’s at worst a top 3 defensive starter in the West.

The Lakers defense looks great, mostly, but Lawson carved them up in game two.  Lawson is quite good, but he isn’t Westbrook, Paul, or Parker, so I still see the Lakers struggling against all that size.  For all Bynum’s hype for the blocks, he’s still a lot more mistake prone than Pau, who’s the real anchor of that defense.  This team is going to have a ton of trouble with 1’s and 3’s, though, so they’d better pray someone takes out Thunder.  They match up fairly well with pretty much everyone else.

Denver doesn’t really play defense, and with so many young players, and Karl’s history, I’m blaming the lockout.  His trapping style should really work well on this club.  As is, Afflalo, Brewer and Lawson are the only really above average NBA defenders.  Faried might be one day, but he really needs to learn to use his energy for more harassment on defense and not be so easily bottled off by size, or picked apart away from the basket by skilled bigs.  Gallinari can be an excellent Parsons-like defender thanks to his length letting him play off opponents, but hasn’t been coached in defense in the NBA really (half-season with Karl last year, lockout this year, prior D’Antoni).  Javale could be a game changer, of course, but I get the feeling he doesn’t watch much tape with an analytic eye or a big man coach, and with his basketball IQ falling in single digits, he really must make that a priority.  Still, Karl has taken raw players with defensive talent and made them a unit before – they will be better next season.

OKC doesn’t impress me defensively, at all.  They’re far too vulnerable inside and it’s going to be an issue sooner or later. They can outscore most teams, but San Antonio matches up incredibly well with them.  Ibaka isn’t good on-ball, and Perkins is good, but a bit over-rated without KG. Durant’s bringing it in the post season, and the other wing defenders and Westbrook are following suit, but wow is the whole less than the sum of their parts.

Dallas, meanwhile, continues to be hugely impressive.  Despite less than elite defensive athletecism everywhere, a smart plan, lack of gambling, and intelligent defenders make this team deadly.  I love watching Kidd off ball on 2s and Marion on ball against nearly everyone.  If they still had Chandler, their D might make them my Western favorites again.  Without Chandler and when not in zone (Wright’s a beast in the zone), they struggle to cover Terry defensively, and since he’s their second best offensive player… Also, huge props to Carslile – I’ve never seen Vince compete this consistently on D before in his career.  Add Deron and a big, even like Asik, here, and I think this is at least a Conference Finals favorite.

The Clippers don’t play defense.  They’re the only bad defensive team in the Western playoffs. Griffin and Jordan are a mess who each badly needs coaching.  Their wings are undersized and underskilled.  Even their bench is usually terrible defensively – Evans rebounds but is wildly undersized.  It’s really Paul’s brilliance that carries them.  Kenyon helps, but not nearly enough – does he look gassed to anyone else?

Finally, Memphis, the cream of the playoff crop on the defensive end.  Allen is the best wing defender in the game to me.  You might take Lebron for versatility to cover bigs, but if you want to shut down a wing, Allen every time.  Gasol is also second to none on his defensive rotations.  He’ll always be a touch on the slower and unathletic side, but that’s all that stops him from being in the Howard/Chandler/Noah class.  Randolph competes on ball and having Marc behind him means that defensive rotations aren’t as much his priority.  He’s below average at rotating there, but an incredible rebounder when allowed to stick to his strengths, so that’s a hugely complementary pairing.  Gay is solid defensively, but a clear step below the other major rotation players as Conley has become a grade A pest who could certainly do more on a team that asked him to (pressure the ball and find the right scorer are his roles here, and he fills them admirably).  Mayo has been a revelation this post-season as a lockdown defender who can really handle 3-positions.  It’s at the point where, not in terms of sheer talent, but for this team, they might be better off trading Gay and re-signing Mayo for an expanded role.  Besides depth (poor Arthur), I’m not sure they have a weakness on that end of the court. I don’t think there’s a chance in hell they lose to the Clips, and I’d be fairly shocked if any team other than San Antonio (ironically) could beat them.  San Antonio just has the smartest offense I’ve seen, perhaps ever, and have absolutely mastered keying offense off defense and vice versa in a way only the Heat seem to really be able to touch.

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

The Grizzlies play a great swarming defense when they are on.  Getting stops and steals.  We lack above the rim shot blockers, our best being Dante Cunningham who had a fantastic block in game 1.  OJ Mayo is solid defensively.  He just gets beat sometimes by the 6’6 and 6’7 guards.  But in this series he is going against Foye and Bledsoe.  … Z Bo and Mo Speights are playing tough defense against Blake Griffin and slowing him down.  Tony Allen is a helter-skelter player both on offense and defense.  Quincy Pondexter is more steady.  We need both.

I haven’t watched much of the Lakers-Nuggets series but the Lakers have so much size inside, making it difficult for other teams to score.  Then you have Kobe who is still a smart defender with Barnes providing good perimeter D.  Ebanks helps, and Ron Ron is coming back soon to provide a brand of physical defense that few others in the league can bring night in and night out.

The Thunder can turn it on defensively when they want to.  Serge Ibaka can block shots.  They probably should be a better defensive team then they are.  No reason why they can’t be as good defensively as the Chicago Bulls. 

I think that the Lakers-Thunder series will come down to who gets the most stops defensively.  Rebounds will also be big.  Limiting turnovers will also be important.

A potential Spurs-Grizzlies matchup will be tough, tough, tough.  Both physical and fundamentally sound with different guys hitting big shots.  Both can play up and down and a grind it out game so this series will depend on who executes better down the stretch.  Whoever wins the free throw battle could determine the series.  Neither team looks as though they will get a ton of shot blocks in the series.  Gasol, Cunningham, Mo Speights, and even Rudy Gay might win the swat battle for Memphis.

[Harbinger]

 I think if the griz beat the clips they will beat the spurs the toughness they will use to beat the clips will be carried throught the whole playoffs and it a raise the intensity of each game.When two teams are playing equally small things decide the winners like 2 more rebounds or 1 turn over,ability to perform under pressure,keeping calm. If the griz beat the clips they will beat the spurs.Memphis has a better front court then the spurs plus no shot blocking or tall forward to stick Z-bo, 2 games  are lost already for the spurs because Z-bo will go off and wi gay on the floor theres no double teaming z-bo or you will see alot of mid range jumpers and dunks from a cutting gay and open shots for mayo ,mike, and gasol.

I picked the celtics and the grizz makeing the conference finals  during the season.I didnt know ray allen was going to be hurt but I still see it possible.

[Harbinger]

 I lost money last year but I know the grizz will make it pass the second round for sure and maybe to the finals where they lose to the heat.As a team there not groomed enough to win it all they still need to grow and fail a litte more before they can win and know what its like to acheive a championship.

[Author]

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