[valentine]

 I’m wondering if some of you might be able to help me i.d. which rookies made at least 90 3 pointers as rookies.

I know I’m a Marcus Smart homer, and you’re probably sick of hearing about him, but I think his 3 point shooting as a rookie continues to be greatly under-appreciated even by Celtics fans.

Most people just look at 3 point %, without looking at how many shots they were actually shooting.

Marcus Smart shot a surprisingly average/respectable 33.5% from 3 as a rookie, but that’s not the full story. It might not even be half the story.

It’s one thing to shoot decent from 3 on one attempt per game, or 1/2 an attempt per game.

Wiggins shot a not-terrible 31% from 3 as a rookie, but he only took 1.5 shots a game from 3. It’s easier to shoot decently/not-terribly from 3 when a player limits their attempts.

That’s how Justise Winslow shot a respectable % from 3 at Duke last year. Take open shots, in rythmn, but don’t take the contested fadeaways while coming off curls at full speed, etc.

So a % isn’t just a %, the context matters and the volume matters, very much. Especially when we’re talking about draft prospects/rookies, or other young players, and trying to assess how good they are and/or can be.

Marcus Smart shot 4.1 threes per game, which is a very high amount. He made over 90 3 pointers for the season, despite only playing in 67 games, and only 27 mpg.

Check this one out:

3pt attempts per 36 minutes:

Wiggins: 1.5 3pt attempts per 36                                                                                                Smart:    5.4 3pt attempts per 36 

Smart took almost quadruple the rate of 3s to Wiggins, and still outshot him %-wise. Not to mention Smart outshot a lot of all star and superstar level players. As a ROOKIE who most people thought had zero jump shot.

DWade and Russell Westbrook never once in their careers shot as high as % as Smart did as a rookie, when he was firing away all kinds of "ill-advised" shots with an extremely high degree of difficulty.

How many seasons did it take Kobe Bryant to match the 90 3 pointers made by Smart as a ROOKIE? It took Kobe SEVEN seasons to make that many 3s.

Russell Westbrook is a top MVP candidate while shooting 40% from the field and sub-30 from 3, because of his shear production. 

How many rookies in the last 10-20 years have had the sheer production from 3 that Smart had as a rookie?

How many rookies made 90+ 3 pointers?

I’ve got Steph Curry with 166, Damian Lillard with 185, Mirotic with 99.

Anybody else?

I feel like Smart actually put up tangible statistical evidence of his potential to be an MVP candidate in the future, despite playing with a debilitating ankle sprain which normally ends a player’s season. 

 

Every single one of you appreciates analytics, and knows that 3 points is more valuable than a 360 degree slam dunk, but almost every one of you would say that Wiggins showed a lot more potential than Smart as a rookie.

I say, if you read between the lines, and actually look at the analytics/advanced stats, you’d see that they are actually very similar caliber prospects.

I don’t know if the geeks in the Rockets front office and elsewhere place as much importance on VOLUME of 3 point shots, and CONTEXT of 3 point shots, but they certainly should.

 

Here’s another stat comparison along the same lines, now that you probably have more appreciation for 3pa volume and context:

Player 1: 8.1 3pa per game, 44% shooting.

Player 2: 9.1 3pa per game, 44% shooting.

Player one is MVP Steph Curry.

Player two is James Young in 17 D-League games. Of course they are not the same thing, and James Young is highly unlikely to turn into Steph Curry, but it’s exactly the kind of stat that should be highly valued by the analytics-minded.

3 point shooting is the most valuable skill in basketball, by definition. And actual volume of 3 pointers made is much more important than simple %, unless the percentage of the high volume shooter is so low as to be counter-productive.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[T Rex]

 Michael Jordan only made 90 or more 3s three times in his career. The first time was his 6th season in the league, or one year quicker than Kobe reached the milestone Smart reached as a rookie. Kobe reached the milestone a bunch more times, unlike Jordan.

But as great as Kobe was, his career averages from three were:

4.0 3pa/g, at 33.4% shooting

Almost identical to Smart’s rookie year

4.1 3pa/g, at 33.5% shooting.

 

 

 

 

  

 

[T Rex]

 Michael Jordan only made 90 or more 3s three times in his career. The first time was his 6th season in the league, or one year quicker than Kobe reached the milestone Smart reached as a rookie. Kobe reached the milestone a bunch more times, unlike Jordan.

But as great as Kobe was, his career averages from three were:

4.0 3pa/g, at 33.4% shooting

Almost identical to Smart’s rookie year

4.1 3pa/g, at 33.5% shooting.

 

 

 

 

  

 

[ChewyParticipant]

 Ben Mclemore- 95 3’s

Trey Burke- 111 3’s

Hardaway Jr- 130 3’s

Beal- 91 3’s

Korver- 83 3’s (thought that was interesting)

Caldwell Pope- only 59 3’s

Olynyk- 40 3’s

Reggie Miller- 61 3’s

Ray Allen- 117 3’s

MJ- 9 3’s

Kerry Kittles- 158 3’s

Allen Iverson- 155 3’s

Matt Maloney- 154 3’s

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ChewyParticipant]

 Ben Mclemore- 95 3’s

Trey Burke- 111 3’s

Hardaway Jr- 130 3’s

Beal- 91 3’s

Korver- 83 3’s (thought that was interesting)

Caldwell Pope- only 59 3’s

Olynyk- 40 3’s

Reggie Miller- 61 3’s

Ray Allen- 117 3’s

MJ- 9 3’s

Kerry Kittles- 158 3’s

Allen Iverson- 155 3’s

Matt Maloney- 154 3’s

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[T Rex]

 Great work, Chewy. Thanks!

 

 

[T Rex]

 Great work, Chewy. Thanks!

 

 

[T Rex]

 The day is coming when a center’s ability to make 3s at high volume and decent efficiency will be regarded as more important as the ability to protect the rim.

The reason I (accurately) rated Porzingis and Turner as KG/Hakeem level prospects is because they can make tons and tons of 3s, while also protecting the rim at an elite level.

Imagine Rudy Gobert with the ability to spot up and also shoot 3s off the dribble, and that’s the level of prospect of Porzingis and Myles Turner.

 

 

 

 

[T Rex]

 The day is coming when a center’s ability to make 3s at high volume and decent efficiency will be regarded as more important as the ability to protect the rim.

The reason I (accurately) rated Porzingis and Turner as KG/Hakeem level prospects is because they can make tons and tons of 3s, while also protecting the rim at an elite level.

Imagine Rudy Gobert with the ability to spot up and also shoot 3s off the dribble, and that’s the level of prospect of Porzingis and Myles Turner.

 

 

 

 

[T Rex]

 In all likelihood, when the next GOAT replaces Michael Jordan, it will be a player like Porzingis and Turner.

I rate Ben Simmons at the same level or perhaps slightly higher, because a 6’10" mobile point guard can simply dominate an offensively dominant team at an unheard of level. 

If say Porzingis can eventually get the green light to fire away from 3 in isolation, off the dribble, and he makes them at a good rate, Porzingis could be the GOAT. But that green light may be unrealistic, at least right now.

Curry/Golden State are definitely changing the game, just by giving a talented shooter a huge green light to fire away at any point, and Curry manages to balance his firing away within a team-first framework.

I think Curry having the trust and support of his teammates as a team first player is a big part of G.S.’s success.

Because a super-high-volume 3 point chucker who played with a selfish mentality wouldn’t bring out the best in his teammates, and likely wouldn’t have the same team success even if they shot the same % as Curry.

But giving a 7’er a big green light from 3, even with 20 seconds on the shot clock, goes against almost every traditional principle of basketball as it has been traditionally understood.

Kelly Olynyk is another 7’er who could end up getting the Curry-level green light to fire away. Coach Stevens is big into analytics, and her certainly saw how dominant KO can be against FIBA level competition by just firing away at will, with the support of his teammates.

 

 

 

[T Rex]

 In all likelihood, when the next GOAT replaces Michael Jordan, it will be a player like Porzingis and Turner.

I rate Ben Simmons at the same level or perhaps slightly higher, because a 6’10" mobile point guard can simply dominate an offensively dominant team at an unheard of level. 

If say Porzingis can eventually get the green light to fire away from 3 in isolation, off the dribble, and he makes them at a good rate, Porzingis could be the GOAT. But that green light may be unrealistic, at least right now.

Curry/Golden State are definitely changing the game, just by giving a talented shooter a huge green light to fire away at any point, and Curry manages to balance his firing away within a team-first framework.

I think Curry having the trust and support of his teammates as a team first player is a big part of G.S.’s success.

Because a super-high-volume 3 point chucker who played with a selfish mentality wouldn’t bring out the best in his teammates, and likely wouldn’t have the same team success even if they shot the same % as Curry.

But giving a 7’er a big green light from 3, even with 20 seconds on the shot clock, goes against almost every traditional principle of basketball as it has been traditionally understood.

Kelly Olynyk is another 7’er who could end up getting the Curry-level green light to fire away. Coach Stevens is big into analytics, and her certainly saw how dominant KO can be against FIBA level competition by just firing away at will, with the support of his teammates.

 

 

 

[BleedGreen808Participant]

 I think Smart shot a decent percent considering shooting isn’t his best asset.  However, watching him at Oklahoma State and with Boston he still takes bad shot attempts.  He’ll continue to improve but I’d like him to pass up the bad shots and drive more.  His size and strength would help him create contact and get to the free throw line.  

[BleedGreen808Participant]

 I think Smart shot a decent percent considering shooting isn’t his best asset.  However, watching him at Oklahoma State and with Boston he still takes bad shot attempts.  He’ll continue to improve but I’d like him to pass up the bad shots and drive more.  His size and strength would help him create contact and get to the free throw line.  

[T Rex]

 In college his ability to drive, score, and get fouled was very similar to Harden’s at ASU.

With a healthy ankle and a year of experience under his belt, I suspect he’s about to blow up the NBA, inside and out. But he’s definitely earned my support for taking most of those super-difficult "hero ball" 3s.

If he’s feeling confident (when isn’t he?) and he chucks up a contested, fade-away, off-curl 3 pointer, I’m simply going to support it. He’s proven he can make them at a good rate. But I suspect he’ll be driving a lot more, especially since his 3 point shot must be respected.

 

[T Rex]

 In college his ability to drive, score, and get fouled was very similar to Harden’s at ASU.

With a healthy ankle and a year of experience under his belt, I suspect he’s about to blow up the NBA, inside and out. But he’s definitely earned my support for taking most of those super-difficult "hero ball" 3s.

If he’s feeling confident (when isn’t he?) and he chucks up a contested, fade-away, off-curl 3 pointer, I’m simply going to support it. He’s proven he can make them at a good rate. But I suspect he’ll be driving a lot more, especially since his 3 point shot must be respected.

 

[CameronCrazy11Participant]

 Every rookie made who 90 or more three pointers in NBA history is listed here. FYI, there have been 50 so far. I’d also like to add in though that stats from recent years are somewhat skewed due to teams placing a great emphasis on the 3 ball than they did in the past.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi

 

[CameronCrazy11Participant]

 Every rookie made who 90 or more three pointers in NBA history is listed here. FYI, there have been 50 so far. I’d also like to add in though that stats from recent years are somewhat skewed due to teams placing a great emphasis on the 3 ball than they did in the past.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi

 

[ZachAttackParticipant]

 I actually liked Smart better than Exum last draft and would’ve rather seen the Jazz pick him. Normally I don’t agree with ya T, but this time I think I will. I think Smart will become a very good player in the NBA. And even though I don’t think he’ll be the Steph Curry type player, I think he’ll still be pretty good.

[ZachAttackParticipant]

 I actually liked Smart better than Exum last draft and would’ve rather seen the Jazz pick him. Normally I don’t agree with ya T, but this time I think I will. I think Smart will become a very good player in the NBA. And even though I don’t think he’ll be the Steph Curry type player, I think he’ll still be pretty good.

[T Rex]

 It looks like Exum will be a pretty darn good player as well, and Hood and Lyles round out a nice young group.

 

 

[T Rex]

 It looks like Exum will be a pretty darn good player as well, and Hood and Lyles round out a nice young group.

 

 

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