[valentine]

 

Derrick Rose doesn’t draw fouls.

 

 

That’s about all the negativity I can muster toward him in an impressive first quarter of the season, yet it remains an important distinction in evaluating his place among the league’s elite.

 

 

Let me explain.

 

 

For starters, there is no question that Rose is aboard the fast track to superstardom. The third-year guard played well enough to make the All-Star team a year ago, and this season he’s a no-brainer pick. He ranks fourth in the league in scoring and ninth in assists. At times he’s been electric and unstoppable, such as his 14-point outburst during an 18-0 run in Houston that broke open a close game in the fourth quarter.

 

 

Moreover, his success has proven fruitful for his employers. The Bulls are eighth in the Power Rankings, despite a brutal early schedule and free-agent pickup Carlos Boozer playing in five of their first 20 games. The Playoff Odds see them winning 49 contests and the Central Division crown.

 

 

Unquestionably, their catalyst has been Rose. While he’s shooting a lot, it’s not just a question of taking more shots. He’s also added some tools to his repertoire. Most notably, he’s stroking the 3-pointer more confidently and, so far, more accurately. Rose attempted 132 triples in his first two pro seasons and didn’t shoot it much more often for Team USA this summer, but in the current season he’s trying over four 3-pointers a game and converting at a respectable 37.1 percent clip. It’s the perfect response to opponents’ preferred strategy of defending him by going under screens and conceding the jumper.

 

 

They concede that J, of course, because Rose is such a great finisher around the basket. He’s shooting 58.6 percent in the basket area this year, according to Hoopdata.com, and has been in that range his entire career. Moreover, he gets there often — nearly six times a game for his career.

 

 

All of those skills should make him a lethal force and a legit MVP candidate. And they would … if he would draw some fouls.

 

 

Rose, however, isn’t in the elite category if we look at PER, Estimated Wins Added or any other analytic metric. He’s sixth among point guards in estimated wins added (EWA), right behind Raymond Felton and a loooong way behind leaders Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul and Deron Williams.

 

 

In PER, it’s a similar story — sixth among point guards, 19th overall. Long-time Bulls fans will no doubt be shocked to see him listed behind Shannon Brown and Tyrus Thomas.

 

 

And while that state of affairs is likely temporary, the reason behind it is more permanent. The reason, as you might have surmised already, is that Rose doesn’t draw fouls.

 

 

FTA/FGA and TS%: ELITE POINT GUARDS

Player	FTA/FGA	TS%
Devin Harris	.571	59.3
Russell Westbrook	.488	54.3
Deron Williams	.434	58.9
Chris Paul	.413	60.5
Steve Nash	.368	60.5
Tony Parker	.277	56.6
Derrick Rose	.264	53.3
Rajon Rondo	.210	53.6

 

 

Rose’s shooting percentages — 45.6 percent overall, 37.1 percent on 3s — are solid for a point guard. But his True Shooting Percentage — 53.3 — is rather ordinary. Of the league’s 62 qualifying point guards, 32 outrank him in that category, including all the ones he’s compared to in the "best point guard" debates (see chart).

 

 

Compare head-to-head against the league’s elite point guards and the difference jumps out. Despite all his forays to the rim, Rose averages 5.6 free throw attempts per game on just over 21 field goal attempts; his rate of .26 free throw attempts per field goal attempt is well below the league average of .32.

 

 

As with the TS% above, 32 of the league’s point guards outrank him in free throw attempts per field goal attempt. That list includes his backup (C.J. Watson, 0.28); jump-shooting specialists such as Cleveland’s Daniel Gibson and Memphis’ Mike Conley; and a whole host of players who aren’t nearly as good.

 

 

Against the elite, he’s completely outclassed in this category. Westbrook gets to the line nearly nine times a game, or once for every two field goal attempts; this difference accounts for nearly the entirety of Westbrook’s advantages over Rose and places him comfortably ahead in TS% and PER. Paul takes nearly as many free throws on half as many shot attempts. Williams also shoots dramatically less than Rose but gets to the stripe nearly seven times a game. Even Tony Parker — a slasher, whose M.O. is to sidestep the hit and make the shot instead — gets to the line at a higher rate than Rose.

 

 

The only elite point guard who gets to the line less frequently than Rose is Rajon Rondo, and that’s because he’s actively terrified of having to shoot free throws. The punch line? Rondo still has a better TS% than Rose.

 

 

Unlike Rondo, Rose has no reason to fear the stripe because he converts at a respectable 77 percent clip. He just doesn’t earn himself a lot of trips.

 

 

I’ve heard a variety of explanations for Rose’s relative lack of freebies. The "no respect from the refs" theory is the one most often heard in the upper reaches of Illinois, but it’s also the most suspect. Several less-experienced players have had little trouble getting to the foul line at a more frequent clip. Rookie John Wall, for instance, is the one whose physical skills are most often compared to Rose’s, and he’s had no trouble getting to the line with far greater frequency.

 

 

Moreover, it’s not like Rose is some unknown rookie. In his third season as Chicago’s featured offensive performer, I’d say the officials are deeply familiar with his playing style.

 

 

No, the unfortunate fact is this: The same things that make Rose so watchable also conspire against him. He’s so smooth, so graceful and so explosive that it’s fairly easy for him to float past opponents and drop in a layup or to launch his unusually-effective 10-foot floater or to pull up for the J while an opponent watches helplessly from the other side of the screen. Alas, none of those maneuvers get him to the line, and the next time Rose willfully draws contact to force his way there will be a first.

 

 

Contrast that, for instance, with Westbrook’s bull-in-a-china-shop approach, and there’s no question which one is easier on the eyes. Rose’s tactic is less effective on the scoreboard because Westbrook is taking twice as many foul shots every night.

 

 

Don’t get me wrong, Rose is a spectacular performer and a surefire All-Star. If you’re making a list of players you’d pay money to see play, there’s no question he’s in the top 10. All those graceful plays I just mentioned are far more entertaining than watching somebody shoot two flat-footed 15-footers from the line while the other nine players stand and watch.

 

 

Still, it’s a less effective way to win basketball games. It seems mundane, as though we’re nitpicking, to bemoan Rose’s lack of free throws, but it’s a notable shortcoming when comparing Rose to the other elite players at his position. Until he earns more whistles, Rose won’t ascend to the top of the league’s point guard mountain.

[IndianaBasketballParticipant]

Wow… The lengths someone will go to find a negative against a GREAT young player. Has it ever crossed anyone’s mind that the reason Rose doesn’t get to the line is because teams just can’t touch him? I mean, because it’s not like he doesn’t drive frequently to the basket. It’s not his fault he’s usually getting a wide open layup or soaring over the defense.

[IndianaBasketballParticipant]

Wow… The lengths someone will go to find a negative against a GREAT young player. Has it ever crossed anyone’s mind that the reason Rose doesn’t get to the line is because teams just can’t touch him? I mean, because it’s not like he doesn’t drive frequently to the basket. It’s not his fault he’s usually getting a wide open layup or soaring over the defense.

[IndianaBasketballParticipant]

This reminds me of when Hollinger wrote the article about Durant’s plus/minus before last season. Some stats, you just have to throw out of the window.

[IndianaBasketballParticipant]

This reminds me of when Hollinger wrote the article about Durant’s plus/minus before last season. Some stats, you just have to throw out of the window.

[GrandmamaParticipant]

"It seems mundane, as though we’re nitpicking, to bemoan Rose’s lack of free throws, but it’s a notable shortcoming when comparing Rose to the other elite players at his position. Until he earns more whistles, Rose won’t ascend to the top of the league’s point guard mountain."

 

I couldn’t disagree more with these claims.  His thoughts and stats have no merit.  Devin Harris is atop his list….Devin Harris isn’t even a top 10 PG in the league, might not even be top 15.  According to this guy, if Derrick Rose took 3-4 more foul shots a game he would be the best PG in the NBA??   I hate this article.

[GrandmamaParticipant]

"It seems mundane, as though we’re nitpicking, to bemoan Rose’s lack of free throws, but it’s a notable shortcoming when comparing Rose to the other elite players at his position. Until he earns more whistles, Rose won’t ascend to the top of the league’s point guard mountain."

 

I couldn’t disagree more with these claims.  His thoughts and stats have no merit.  Devin Harris is atop his list….Devin Harris isn’t even a top 10 PG in the league, might not even be top 15.  According to this guy, if Derrick Rose took 3-4 more foul shots a game he would be the best PG in the NBA??   I hate this article.

[QUINCEY HODGES1]

Agreed. While i was reading i was like "what". i can see if he was getting in the lane and missing layups and not going to the line but he is making his lay-ups so who cares if he doesn’t go to the line.

[QUINCEY HODGES1]

Agreed. While i was reading i was like "what". i can see if he was getting in the lane and missing layups and not going to the line but he is making his lay-ups so who cares if he doesn’t go to the line.

[HaleParticipant]

He is amazing at avoiding people in the air, that’s why he doesn’t shoot more FT’s. Regardless of his FT attempts per game, he can still be the best pg in the NBA in years coming.

[HaleParticipant]

He is amazing at avoiding people in the air, that’s why he doesn’t shoot more FT’s. Regardless of his FT attempts per game, he can still be the best pg in the NBA in years coming.

[joecheck88Participant]

yep, it is a ridiculous argument. rose doesnt draw fouls because he beats people to the basket and when he doesnt he shoots his floater. before this, it was he doesnt get assists(now getting about 8 per game) then it was steals(now getting about 1.2, which isnt setting the world on fire but is respectable), then rebounding(which now he is at a little over 4 per game which is good for your pg).

instead of going straight up and drawing a foul, he uses the rim for a reverse or his floater. free throws would matter more if all he did was shoot but thats not the case. he gets to the rim more than alot of people.

[joecheck88Participant]

yep, it is a ridiculous argument. rose doesnt draw fouls because he beats people to the basket and when he doesnt he shoots his floater. before this, it was he doesnt get assists(now getting about 8 per game) then it was steals(now getting about 1.2, which isnt setting the world on fire but is respectable), then rebounding(which now he is at a little over 4 per game which is good for your pg).

instead of going straight up and drawing a foul, he uses the rim for a reverse or his floater. free throws would matter more if all he did was shoot but thats not the case. he gets to the rim more than alot of people.

[QUINCEY HODGES1]

Devin harris not a top 15 guard?..Thats not true..not a top 10?

Westbrook,Rose,Dwill,cp3,Rondo,Parker,..i can think of other guys near him but who else can you say is clearly better?

[QUINCEY HODGES1]

Devin harris not a top 15 guard?..Thats not true..not a top 10?

Westbrook,Rose,Dwill,cp3,Rondo,Parker,..i can think of other guys near him but who else can you say is clearly better?

[andxxxParticipant]

 Another example of a guy looking at one statistic to make a player look bad its crazy how far people go with stats sometimes smh

[andxxxParticipant]

 Another example of a guy looking at one statistic to make a player look bad its crazy how far people go with stats sometimes smh

[sheltwon3Participant]

I took it as what he needs to do to be a superstar.  I think there is no question that Rose is good but the thing is he improved some of his weaknesses over the summer because teams were keying on them to stop or neutralize him. He will continue to improve and I am sure in time he will start getting to line more.  That not only helps him but his teammates because he is a guy that can easily get fouls called on the other team which limits a lot of players effectiveness if they are on the bench or close to being fouled out.  Durant needed to improve on some stuff to but there is no doubt that he is one of the top players in the league but at one point and to some degree now he defense was not that great.  When Lebron could not shoot that was a weakness that he had to fix and he did same with Wade and that is why they are who they are.

[sheltwon3Participant]

I took it as what he needs to do to be a superstar.  I think there is no question that Rose is good but the thing is he improved some of his weaknesses over the summer because teams were keying on them to stop or neutralize him. He will continue to improve and I am sure in time he will start getting to line more.  That not only helps him but his teammates because he is a guy that can easily get fouls called on the other team which limits a lot of players effectiveness if they are on the bench or close to being fouled out.  Durant needed to improve on some stuff to but there is no doubt that he is one of the top players in the league but at one point and to some degree now he defense was not that great.  When Lebron could not shoot that was a weakness that he had to fix and he did same with Wade and that is why they are who they are.

[IndianaBasketballParticipant]

How is Kevin Durant a superstar, but Derrick Rose isn’t?

Rose has led his team to the playoffs both seasons of his career, and not only that… He’s played VERY well vs great teams (Celtics and Cavs). He’s improved every season. He started closing teams out last season and is an even better closer this season.

He’s not a complete player just yet, but neither is Durant. Having a couple of weaknesses to improve upon doesn’t mean you’re not a superstar. Rose is a superstar.

 

[IndianaBasketballParticipant]

How is Kevin Durant a superstar, but Derrick Rose isn’t?

Rose has led his team to the playoffs both seasons of his career, and not only that… He’s played VERY well vs great teams (Celtics and Cavs). He’s improved every season. He started closing teams out last season and is an even better closer this season.

He’s not a complete player just yet, but neither is Durant. Having a couple of weaknesses to improve upon doesn’t mean you’re not a superstar. Rose is a superstar.

 

[Meditated StatesParticipant]

His defense is not good. I feel you will not be a very successful team with a scoring PG. When was the last time a PG who led his team in scoring won a title? How crisp is the O with the PG being the main scorer in playoff basketball? Jason Kidd got his team their twice,but he is a passer. Tony Parker led the team in scoring in 1 finals series,but Tim Duncan led them all year and throughout the playoffs in scoring that year Parker got finals MVP. Do you think these scoring PG’s are ever going to lead their team to a title?

[Meditated StatesParticipant]

His defense is not good. I feel you will not be a very successful team with a scoring PG. When was the last time a PG who led his team in scoring won a title? How crisp is the O with the PG being the main scorer in playoff basketball? Jason Kidd got his team their twice,but he is a passer. Tony Parker led the team in scoring in 1 finals series,but Tim Duncan led them all year and throughout the playoffs in scoring that year Parker got finals MVP. Do you think these scoring PG’s are ever going to lead their team to a title?

[OrangeJuiceJonesParticipant]

 I don’t know about you guys, but I wouldn’t want my point guard — even a strong one like Derrick Rose — averaging 7+ free throw attempts per game. Too much wear and tear on the body.

[OrangeJuiceJonesParticipant]

 I don’t know about you guys, but I wouldn’t want my point guard — even a strong one like Derrick Rose — averaging 7+ free throw attempts per game. Too much wear and tear on the body.

[HaleParticipant]

After tonight he is now up to 41.6% from 3. He is just killing it.

[HaleParticipant]

After tonight he is now up to 41.6% from 3. He is just killing it.

[IndianaBasketballParticipant]

@scout4real

Rose is quickly developing into a complete point guard on the offensive end. He’s averaging 8.2 assists, which is top ten in the NBA. He’s not just a scorer and as soon as Boozer gets into top form, Rose’s scoring numbers will go down. Rose is also unselfish, meaning he doesn’t care if he scores 15 or 30… As long as the Bulls win.

Isiah Thomas was the last point guard to lead his team in scoring and actually win a championship, however it’s not like teams with scoring point gaurds haven’t had success.

Gary Payton and Shawn Kemp shared being the first option on Seattle when they made it to the Finals in 1996 (Payton averaged 19.3 and Shawn Kemp averaged 19.6). Chauncey Billups was a score first point guard (go-to offensive player down the stretch of games), despite not leading his team in scoring (less than a point difference between he and Hamilton in 2004). Tim Duncan has always been the first option on the Spurs, but Tony Parker was a score first point guard as well.  

As long as the Bulls surround Rose with the right players (that’s why they went out and got Boozer), a championship is definitely within reach. Plus, like I said… He’s developing into a complete player offensively. I just don’t see there being any issue.

 

[IndianaBasketballParticipant]

@scout4real

Rose is quickly developing into a complete point guard on the offensive end. He’s averaging 8.2 assists, which is top ten in the NBA. He’s not just a scorer and as soon as Boozer gets into top form, Rose’s scoring numbers will go down. Rose is also unselfish, meaning he doesn’t care if he scores 15 or 30… As long as the Bulls win.

Isiah Thomas was the last point guard to lead his team in scoring and actually win a championship, however it’s not like teams with scoring point gaurds haven’t had success.

Gary Payton and Shawn Kemp shared being the first option on Seattle when they made it to the Finals in 1996 (Payton averaged 19.3 and Shawn Kemp averaged 19.6). Chauncey Billups was a score first point guard (go-to offensive player down the stretch of games), despite not leading his team in scoring (less than a point difference between he and Hamilton in 2004). Tim Duncan has always been the first option on the Spurs, but Tony Parker was a score first point guard as well.  

As long as the Bulls surround Rose with the right players (that’s why they went out and got Boozer), a championship is definitely within reach. Plus, like I said… He’s developing into a complete player offensively. I just don’t see there being any issue.

 

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