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- Posted on: Thu, 03/02/2017 - 3:33am #65821
binetParticipantI recently completely changed my own mock and appreciation to the draft with recent trade deadline in mind and what seem to be the market for bigs right now.
We know for a fact that this is not a draft heralded to be a strong draft for big men. And talents like Nerlens Noel get traded for secound round picks or Cousins for Buddy Hield and a late lottery. Recent lottery picks including Jahlil Okafor, Frank Kaminsky, Alex Len, have failed, teams are leaning small ball and a lot of them are set on a big man.
I am thinking most the traditionnal bigs in this draft (and possibly also typical stretch 4 vs. tweener small 4) are overrated right now. Every team needs more shooting, wing depth right now, none is really caring about bigs. Last year Diamond Stone, Skal Labissiere were drafted super late and the trend should continue this year or get worse. Raab, Adebayo, Williams, Jarrett Allen, Zach Collins some of these guys if not all of them will end up secound rounders.
Will that be different if they stay another year? I don’t think so.
It seems though looking at mock drafts that very few share this opinion… Am I crazy?
0 - Posted on: Thu, 03/02/2017 - 3:52am #1093280
holefillers1ParticipantEvery player is different. You can’t scout entire groups like that. Folks down in OKC love Kanter. He played one year at Kentucky and took a few years to develop. Most bigs do. Utah is still working with Favors. Gobert was a mid round pick Marc Gasol and Whiteside were second rounders. All came from from different places with different skill sets at different points in their development.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 03/02/2017 - 3:55am #1093281
Anton123ParticipantThere is certainly a degree of truth to what you’re saying. I’m sure that not all of the guys you mentioned will be second rounders, this draft class doesn’t seem very deep and I’m sure some teams would rather have a talented big man than a low-level wing or guard.
This draft has way too many big men that are better-than-average and have good potential, but aren’t excellent, so I’m sure we’ll see some guys slip to the second or slide to late-first round. Also when it is clearer who teams prefer, the other guys may decide to stay another year.
The situation may be different if they stay another year and develop in a way that would separate them from the pack. I’m sure there will always be at least several teams that could benefit from having a good big guy.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 03/02/2017 - 4:35am #1093283
binetParticipantWhat picks Brooklyn would have accepted for Brook Lopez?
I know there is a money/contract aspect of it also but it seems to me that there are no logic to many of our current big boards in regards to bigs right now. There are very few teams in need of a big right now, let alone a raw one that will need tons of playing time/development while playing on a supposedly playoff team in the secound half of the first round.
Value picking euro bigs seems to be the best way to go lately also. With not only Jokic in the secound round, but Capela, Gobert, Hernangomez…. Last season we saw a lot of teams picking euro bigs highly in reaction. It’s a logical choice when you can stash&dash them there and they are often more successful.
I think the definition of an above average big by scouts in general or us watching NCAA is bad. These guys go to the NBA and become Frank Kaminsky, Alex Len, Noah Vonley. NCAA bigs in general are worse than where we tend to rate them. Part because the league is going small, part because college is not preparing them well, it’s not like you will have to grab rebounds against a 6’5" guy anymore, and if you do, that guy is going to be a freak athlete.
Who is better than average this year? Patton? Giles (virtually)? Hartenstein? Some other euros/internationals ?How many of these guys would you start over say Valanciunas or Brook Lopez to develop them for upside? Mason Plumlee is a backup big right now. Average is way better than these talents imo. Why draft a 6’9" guy like Raab rather than go small ball with an athletic "wing" (even at center Draymond Green style) that will be able to stretch the floor and have just the same impact on boards etc…?
So yes, unless we start considering Anunoby like a Center prospect (I would play Anunoby as a small ball center over many raw top C prospects, including Robert Williams, fwiw.) and probably one or two other positionless guys, I just don’t see it.
I am being harsh but it just seems to me that most teams would prefer developping the best available 3&D positionless "wing" prospect available than a Center until there are no more available. Which pretty much means secound round. Of course that does not concern every team and players, but worst comes to worst, you would get Jahlil Okafor or Nikola Vucevic for your 25ish pick anyway, why draft these guys?
0- Posted on: Thu, 03/02/2017 - 5:25am #1093290
Anton123ParticipantPicking Jahlil Okafor or Vucevic with your 25th pick is absolutely amazing value. If you have a smart coach and good GM, you will find a way to get value out of a talented big man, the fact that the top 2 teams currently don’t have such players does not mean they are completely obsolete.
Also your post makes it look like Capela (25th pick) and Gobert (27th pick) were second round guys, that is not true.
0- Posted on: Thu, 03/02/2017 - 10:00am #1093302
binetParticipantMy staements on Capela and Gobert were more to underline that successful bigs seem to come more and more often from outside the NCAA, which is another point that goes against drafting NCAA bigs in the first round.
I honestly think right now you can get Okafor or Vucevic for the 25th pick in this upcoming draft yes. Possibly Brook Lopez as well given Brooklyn ‘s situation (more than actual value). That’s the current big man market: terribly low. No point on drafting a big who seems less talented that what the market is offering you.
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- Posted on: Thu, 03/02/2017 - 9:51am #1093301
OhCanada-ParticipantI kind of agree with this but I sort of think most mock drafts have already accounted for a bigs abillity to play the perimeter and most bigs have skills that translate ti the way the NBA is trending. I do see Giles and Williams getting selected outside of the lottery though unless they prove they can gaurd and stretch the floor. I also think Luke Kornet will eventually be drafted. No 7 footer in the history of the NCAA has more 3’s.
0 - Posted on: Thu, 03/02/2017 - 5:54pm #1093327
r377Participantyes, unfort its becoming a 3point shooting league. Quality post bigs like Monroe and Okafor just arent’ valued as much as they would have been in the 80’s and 90’s.
The two highest ranked bigs in the mocks Lauri Bargnani and TJ leaf both just happen to be outstanding 3 point shooters.
Ive said it for a while now but I am high on Jarrett Allen, I think he will climb up the mocks soon….
0 - Posted on: Wed, 03/08/2017 - 10:36am #1093623
binetParticipantAbout 10 guys in each of the two round are old school bigs, either listed at C, PF or PF/C by this site (but come on: no way Matthias Lessort is playing 4 in the NBA) that should end up being either Center, or small ball Center (like Montrezl Harrell right now.).
That’s way too many. The NBA probably needs less than 10 of those. Of course there are going to be a ton of stash&dash or maybe even two-way contracts in the secound round that could be given to these bigs, but not as many first rounders.
Teams have not even tried their Center prospects from last year: the Papagiannis, the Maker, the Yabusele, the Zizic, Labissiere, Damian Jones, Deyonta Davis, Diamond Stone, Diallo, Zhou Qi … And several of them won’t just give up this quickly on them.
Most teams have one or two reliable big already and does not really have the resources to try and develop these talents, most of them at least raw and with limited upside.
Teams could bet on upside on international talents like Hartenstein or less hyped Pasecniks, Jeanne, Okouo given right now international bigs are the most succesful ones with regards to draft range. But I just don’t see why would they pick this many NCAA average bigs.
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