The Thon Maker vs Skal Labissiere Argument

I just read this article.  It basically says that Skal’s draft position will discourage one-and-done players from going to college, while Maker’s draft position will encourage players to avoid college.  I think that if we only consider these two players, then the author has a point.  But if we look at the last few years, a different picture emerges.

Sure, Skal did not get drafted as high as I thought he would.  I still think his upside is tremendous.  But the difference between being a lottery pick and being picked 28th is in the low millions.  Still, Skal will be a millionaire and will get his opportunity to develop and play in the NBA.  As an aside, I think he was drafted into the perfect position for him as the expectations are pretty low at this point, and the Spurs are known for their ability to develop players at a high level.  

And Maker, well, was a suprise to most to go as high as he did.  I think he will turn out to be a good pro, and his upside is significant as well.

Since I think the sample size needs to be bigger, let’s examine the draft disappointments from this year.  I consider the draft positions of Cheick Diallo, Stephen Zimmerman, and Diamond Stone to be major disappointments.  All three of these guys were tremendously hyped coming in and all were perceived as one-and-done picks.  Now all three are going to have to be summer league warriors and battle for a a roster spot.  Would they have done better from a draft perspective if they had gone the Thon Maker route?  I personally doubt it, and I’ll explain in a minute.  But, they were all perceived as possible first round picks and they are all going to have a much harder road to that coveted NBA roster spot now.

Now, let’s look at the one-and-done guys who went to college and improved their stock.  Marquese Chriss, Dejounte Murray, and I think Deyonta Davis as well.  None of these guys were hyped in high school, and none were projected as one-and-done players in high school.  Yet, there they were on draft night, putting on baseball caps and getting ready to go on shopping sprees.  Although Davis was a second round pick, he was definitely in the conversation for being a lottery pick and definitely a first-rounder.  He defintely benefited from his year at Michigan State.  If we go back to last year, there are other examples.  Devin Booker immediately comes to mind.

I think there are two important factors that are coming in to play in explaining that unexpected draft results.  The first is that high school basketball analysts are obviously a big part of the problem.  Guys like Matt Norlander, and Seth Greenberg, etc see guys play in one or two all-star games and then crown them the next big thing.  Skal Labissiere is a perfect example.  Skal did not even play on a real high school team his senior year in college.  How could they say he was a better prospect than Ben Simmons?  These "analysts" are just not that good at evaluating players.  What I find disingenuous though is that when these prospects that they say are the next big thing, don’t live up to the hype that they created, they then turn around and call the player a "bust", or say that he is a "disappointment".  Do these analysts ever accept any responsibility for creating unjustified hype?  No.

The second important factor that has been affecting the draft in recent years is the influx of foreign talent.  Once upon a time, Don Nelson was considered an "outside the box" kind of thinker because he drafted Dirk Nowitzki.  Back in the ’90s drafting a foreign player was risky.  Basketball is now a bonafide world sport and the international players are at the same level as American players now.  The first round this year has 7 international players.  8 if you count Thon Maker (which I wouldn’t).   These international players are bumping a lot of guys right out of the first round, and are bumping guys like Skal, and Deyonta Davis, down the list a bit.  In the second round there are 8 international players.  American players now are competing not just against each other, but guys in China, France, Greece, etc…

So no, I don’t think Thon Maker and Skal are really going to have an effect on players’ decisions about college.  What we are seeing is high school analysts not being great at their jobs, and not looking at overseas players.  And we are witnessing the globalization of professional basketball in the U.S.

Please, weigh in and share your thoughts.