Freshman vs Upperclass

 You would think if they were good enough to declare for the draft, they would have done so already. I agree that seniors have time to improve so if a guy gets better over his 4 years his progress should be taken into account. I think the problem with looking at age is that people always assume younger is better when I don’t believe that to be the case.

 I think younger can be better in a lot of scenarios, but I look at this year, one scenario being Jamal Murray. I don’t think that him being young means that he has boat loads of potential, because he’s most likely not going to grow or become anymore athletic, so he’s stuck in a body that is undersized for his position with short arms and he is slow laterally and downhill. The skill everyone assumes you get better at, shooting, is already his forte. So is his youth that important if most of his learned skills are already developed?

 The justaposition to this, this year, would be Jaylen Brown (or you could argue Chriss). Brown the nature in nature vs. nurture. I can’t think of many guys to enter the league the past decade that have Brown’s combination of size, quickness, and strength. I think he’s more explosive than Stanley Johnson a year ago. However, Brown has a below average jumper and he isn’t a great ball-handler (especially to his left).

If you had to put money on Brown improving his ball-handling/shooting or Jamal Murray improving his size and athletic ability, obviously you put it on Brown since Murray most likely isn’t becoming more athletic. That’s where I think the young vs. old argument is flawed. And I’m not a big Buddy Hield guy either, but considering Buddy Hield is more athletic and longer than Murray, I don’t think that youth is as big of an advantage for Murray as people think.

 You would think if they were good enough to declare for the draft, they would have done so already. I agree that seniors have time to improve so if a guy gets better over his 4 years his progress should be taken into account. I think the problem with looking at age is that people always assume younger is better when I don’t believe that to be the case.

 I think younger can be better in a lot of scenarios, but I look at this year, one scenario being Jamal Murray. I don’t think that him being young means that he has boat loads of potential, because he’s most likely not going to grow or become anymore athletic, so he’s stuck in a body that is undersized for his position with short arms and he is slow laterally and downhill. The skill everyone assumes you get better at, shooting, is already his forte. So is his youth that important if most of his learned skills are already developed?

 The justaposition to this, this year, would be Jaylen Brown (or you could argue Chriss). Brown the nature in nature vs. nurture. I can’t think of many guys to enter the league the past decade that have Brown’s combination of size, quickness, and strength. I think he’s more explosive than Stanley Johnson a year ago. However, Brown has a below average jumper and he isn’t a great ball-handler (especially to his left).

If you had to put money on Brown improving his ball-handling/shooting or Jamal Murray improving his size and athletic ability, obviously you put it on Brown since Murray most likely isn’t becoming more athletic. That’s where I think the young vs. old argument is flawed. And I’m not a big Buddy Hield guy either, but considering Buddy Hield is more athletic and longer than Murray, I don’t think that youth is as big of an advantage for Murray as people think.

I’ve said it a lot of times before but I hate these one and dones who get drafted based on potential or high school hype. Its even happening a lot in the second round.

Skal, DDavis and Diello are all drafted on potential. They never really did anything in college.

If you look at last season if Dunn and Hield had declared they would of been drafted 15-25, now both guys are poss top 5 with a nice fat paycheck and also are going to get minutes, rather then been sent down to the d-league and being labelled a “project”. Being a top 5 pick you are going to get a lot more support and playing opportunities than a late first rounder.

For every Drummond that makes it you have 6 or 7 Perry Jones, Vonleh, Josh Selby that don’t make it…

I’ve said it a lot of times before but I hate these one and dones who get drafted based on potential or high school hype. Its even happening a lot in the second round.

Skal, DDavis and Diello are all drafted on potential. They never really did anything in college.

If you look at last season if Dunn and Hield had declared they would of been drafted 15-25, now both guys are poss top 5 with a nice fat paycheck and also are going to get minutes, rather then been sent down to the d-league and being labelled a “project”. Being a top 5 pick you are going to get a lot more support and playing opportunities than a late first rounder.

For every Drummond that makes it you have 6 or 7 Perry Jones, Vonleh, Josh Selby that don’t make it…

 So I did the math dividing SR/JR vs. FR/SO starting 2006 the year of one and done til 2012. 

 SR/JR stats. 154 didn’t make it past their rookie contract or were cut from the team. compared to a total of 218 that were drafted. 9 became AllStars. So SR/JR players have a 30% chance of making a team and a 4% chance of becoming an AllStar.

 FR/SO stats. 31 didn’t make it past their rookie contract or were cut from the team. compared to a total of 114 that were drafted. 21 became AllStars. So FR/SO platers have a 73% chance of making a team and a 18% chance of becoming an AllStar. 

These are basic numbers and people are more than willing to break them down more. These numbers don’t tell the whole story but give an idea why younger players are more valued in the draft. 

 So I did the math dividing SR/JR vs. FR/SO starting 2006 the year of one and done til 2012. 

 SR/JR stats. 154 didn’t make it past their rookie contract or were cut from the team. compared to a total of 218 that were drafted. 9 became AllStars. So SR/JR players have a 30% chance of making a team and a 4% chance of becoming an AllStar.

 FR/SO stats. 31 didn’t make it past their rookie contract or were cut from the team. compared to a total of 114 that were drafted. 21 became AllStars. So FR/SO platers have a 73% chance of making a team and a 18% chance of becoming an AllStar. 

These are basic numbers and people are more than willing to break them down more. These numbers don’t tell the whole story but give an idea why younger players are more valued in the draft. 

 List of JR/SR drafted in the lottery in the last ten drafts.

2015: W. Cauley-Stein, F. Kaminsky

2014: E. Payton, D. McDermott

2013: V. Oladipo, CJ McCollum, K. Olynyk

2012: T. Robinson, D. Lillard, J. Henson

2011: K. Walker, J. Fredette, K. Thompson, Markieff Morris, Marcus Morris

2010: E. Turner, Wes Johnson, E. Udoh, C. Aldrich, P. Patterson

2009: H. Thebeet, S. Curry, Jordan Hill, Terrence Williams, G. Henderson, T. Hansbrough, E. Clark

2008: J. Alexander, J. Thompson, B. Rush

2007: Al Horford, J. Green, C. Brewer, J. Noah, A. Law, Al Thornton

2006: A. Morrison, Sheldon Williams, B. Roy, R. Foye, JJ Redick, H. Armstrong, R. Brewer

 List of JR/SR drafted in the lottery in the last ten drafts.

2015: W. Cauley-Stein, F. Kaminsky

2014: E. Payton, D. McDermott

2013: V. Oladipo, CJ McCollum, K. Olynyk

2012: T. Robinson, D. Lillard, J. Henson

2011: K. Walker, J. Fredette, K. Thompson, Markieff Morris, Marcus Morris

2010: E. Turner, Wes Johnson, E. Udoh, C. Aldrich, P. Patterson

2009: H. Thebeet, S. Curry, Jordan Hill, Terrence Williams, G. Henderson, T. Hansbrough, E. Clark

2008: J. Alexander, J. Thompson, B. Rush

2007: Al Horford, J. Green, C. Brewer, J. Noah, A. Law, Al Thornton

2006: A. Morrison, Sheldon Williams, B. Roy, R. Foye, JJ Redick, H. Armstrong, R. Brewer

Drafting one and dones, especially project type guys like Chriss, put a lot of pressure on that organization to lead him into reaching his potential. But just because a guy is an upperclassman doesn’t mean he’s a sure thing, either. We all know about Thomas Robinson, Adam Morrison, Wes Johnson (a contributor, but not what was expected), Hasheem Thabeet, Ekpe Udoh, and many others. I wouldn’t say the bust potential is “exponentially” higher because we’ve seen plenty of upperclassmen bust too. It may be more obvious when it happens to Freshmen because those project type guys usually get drafted regardless of production, while upperclassmen don’t get drafted high unless they dominate, but I don’t think there’s as big of a gap as people think.

Drafting one and dones, especially project type guys like Chriss, put a lot of pressure on that organization to lead him into reaching his potential. But just because a guy is an upperclassman doesn’t mean he’s a sure thing, either. We all know about Thomas Robinson, Adam Morrison, Wes Johnson (a contributor, but not what was expected), Hasheem Thabeet, Ekpe Udoh, and many others. I wouldn’t say the bust potential is “exponentially” higher because we’ve seen plenty of upperclassmen bust too. It may be more obvious when it happens to Freshmen because those project type guys usually get drafted regardless of production, while upperclassmen don’t get drafted high unless they dominate, but I don’t think there’s as big of a gap as people think.

 If you look at the success rate of draft picks straight out of HS…its actually not that bad.

Obviously theres a few busts but theres also a few steals too. But the majority are in the kinda range you would expect.

 If you look at the success rate of draft picks straight out of HS…its actually not that bad.

Obviously theres a few busts but theres also a few steals too. But the majority are in the kinda range you would expect.

I quite liked this statement—-

“Seniors are viewed like, ‘They’ve reached their potential. They can’t do this,’ ” Green told The Undefeated. “But then they will say, ‘This freshman has so much potential.’ What you’re telling me is he didn’t prove anything to you. But this senior has proved everything to you and you say, ‘Oh, he’s reached his potential.’ Seniors are definitely treated unfairly.”
36 mins ago – via The Undefeated

I quite liked this statement—-

“Seniors are viewed like, ‘They’ve reached their potential. They can’t do this,’ ” Green told The Undefeated. “But then they will say, ‘This freshman has so much potential.’ What you’re telling me is he didn’t prove anything to you. But this senior has proved everything to you and you say, ‘Oh, he’s reached his potential.’ Seniors are definitely treated unfairly.”
36 mins ago – via The Undefeated