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Hitster 10 years ago.
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- Posted on: Fri, 06/10/2016 - 3:05pm #64159
KingslayerParticipant2015/2016 record: 48-34 *Contract values courtesy of Spotrac.
Roster (16/17 salary): Bosh ($23.7 mil), Dragic ($15.9 mil), McBob ($5.8 mil), Winslow ($2.6 mil), Richardson ($0.9 mil) TOTAL =~ $48.9 mil
Notable FA’s & Contract options (16/17 option/ cap hold): Wade (UFA, $30.0mil), Whiteside (UFA, $1.9mil), Deng (UFA, $13.2mil), J.Johnson (UFA), T.Johnson (RFA, $1.1mil)
R1 Draft picks (16/17 salary): none
Total Cap Commitment: = $48.9 million. $43.1 million in projected cap space.
Backcourt – DWade had his first consistently healthy season in a long time, and while he can no longer carry the superstar load on a nightly basis, he’s still capable of vintage Wade performances when it matters. He will obviously be re-signed, and it would help his longevity and the Heat’s success if he could build upon his 3-point shooting performance in the playoffs. The only other backcourt players locked up are Dragic and Richardson. I’m guessing Tyler Johnson will be brought back too as a cheap RFA. The Heat got away without having a true backup PG last year because J-Rich can defend the position very well, and they had Wade & Joe to initiate offense with Dragic on the bench. I think they should try to find a true backup PG (even if it’s just a 3rd stringer), since it’s far from guaranteed that Joe returns as a UFA (more on that to come). Miami will have to get creative to add depth to the roster all over the roster, as they have no draft picks and need every last inch of cap room for their own free agents.
Frontcourt – This is where it gets real tricky. Someone please correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe Miami does not own Whiteside’s full Bird rights. That means Miami cannot sign Whiteside to a large contract that would put them over the cap. The issue is that the $43.1 million in cap space posted above is misleading, since the Heat have a ton of FA cap holds (including $30 million for just Wade). Even if they renounce the rights for everyone except Tyler Johnson and sign Wade for a reasonable $20 mil, they would only have about $22 million in cap space to sign Hassan. The first year salary of a max contract for him would be about $23 million. Since the Heat can offer him 7.5% raises year over year instead of the 4.5% raises by other teams, they can offer him larger guarantees over future years with a slightly lower first year salary to make it work. Depending on how greedy Wade & Whiteside are, the Heat might also have to dump McRoberts’ salary in a trade before they can re-sign both their star free agents. Pat Riley has gotten creative in free agency before, and I’m sure he’ll design a way for the Heat to retain both players if they really want to. If the Heat go down that road, they won’t be able to retain Deng or Joe unless it’s for a mid-level exception. That would at least open up time for Winslow moving forward. He has a long way to go as a scorer, but his defensive impact was phenomenal for a rookie. Miami should try to buy a second rounder and draft a player who can compete right away for a roster spot, as they will have terrible depth next season in the event Whiteside is re-signed.
Outlook – Let’s face it, the Heat’s potential to become a legit top contender during the next 2-3 seasons depends largely on Bosh. A healthy Bosh, Wade & Dragic with further development from Whiteside, Winslow and J-Rich would be very promising. If Bosh’s career is essentially over, the Heat will be on the books for $76 million over the next 3 seasons for a wasted roster spot. In which case they will likely be stuck as one of the second-tier East teams behind Cleveland in a best case scenario. If they lose out on Whiteside, Bosh can’t come back, and they settle for re-signing their declining vets, Miami may have to start thinking re-build sooner rather than later.
0 - Posted on: Fri, 06/10/2016 - 4:21pm #1072180
ZouldiersParticipantAs a Heat fan, our playoff chances depend on this offseason. Like you said, the backcourt looks good but the frontcourt gets tricky. Worst case scenario is that bosh is no longer healthy and whiteside signs to another team. But the 2017 draft class is deeper than this year so I wouldn’t mind not seeing this team in the playoffs yet again. Our saving grace next season will be the development of Justise and Josh Richardson.
0 - Posted on: Fri, 06/10/2016 - 4:21pm #1072296
ZouldiersParticipantAs a Heat fan, our playoff chances depend on this offseason. Like you said, the backcourt looks good but the frontcourt gets tricky. Worst case scenario is that bosh is no longer healthy and whiteside signs to another team. But the 2017 draft class is deeper than this year so I wouldn’t mind not seeing this team in the playoffs yet again. Our saving grace next season will be the development of Justise and Josh Richardson.
0 - Posted on: Fri, 06/10/2016 - 6:30pm #1072233
morestealsthanscoresParticipantIf bosh’s career is over, don’t they get a disabled player exception?
0- Posted on: Fri, 06/10/2016 - 6:46pm #1072235
KingslayerParticipantHowever the disabled player exception maxes out at the mid-level exception amount of a non-tax team, which will be roughly 25-30% of Bosh’s salary for the next 3 years.
0 - Posted on: Fri, 06/10/2016 - 6:46pm #1072350
KingslayerParticipantHowever the disabled player exception maxes out at the mid-level exception amount of a non-tax team, which will be roughly 25-30% of Bosh’s salary for the next 3 years.
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- Posted on: Fri, 06/10/2016 - 6:30pm #1072348
morestealsthanscoresParticipantIf bosh’s career is over, don’t they get a disabled player exception?
0 - Posted on: Sat, 06/11/2016 - 3:10am #1072388
HitsterParticipantThey can obviously get Bosh’s salary back from insurance or they reach a pay off with him but it still screws their cap up.
If Bosh was unlikely to play again and knew he would likely retire, could they effectively trade his contract to a team way under cap which needed to get to minimum cap level – for example Philly for the last two years. Bosh wouldn’t play for this team and announces his retirement in due course, team doesn’t pay Bosh as such but his salary gets team to minimum level, Miami gets cap space everyone wins.
The Heat have a big summer ahead with so many FA’s and the query over Bosh’s long term future. If everyone resigns and Bosh gets healthy they are competitive but if some move on and Bosh is game over the Heat will struggle a bit.
Whiteside being retained is the key as he’s one of the better NBA C’s now. He is up for his first big pay day at 27 so I figure he looks for best deal he can get- which the Heat can offer. Deng is 31 now and has a lot of miles on the clock now, he has made good money in his career and probably wants to be on a contender now. Miami have a fair chance of retaining him but may not want to overpay him, a lot will depend what offers he gets.
D-Wade has only been given shorter term deals in the last couple of years, maybe he wants to do it that way as otherwise it’s a bit disresepctful by Miami towards one of their greatest players ever. D-Wade has titles, huge wealth so I don’t see him looking to move on. I figure maybe he will do it year by year again and always have the option to finish when he wants.
Joe Johnson seemed to enjoy moving to Miami and a lot depends on whether he wants to go all out for a title next year. He turns 35 later this month so his playing career is nearing it’s end. But he maybe has 2 or 3 more seasons as a realistic NBA option so could take a year or two in Miami and then reassess things. Joe will be a highly sought after veteran FA given his experience, shooting and leadership. It will depend what his mindset is, does he want to stay out East, move West, uproot himself and any family etc.
0 - Posted on: Sat, 06/11/2016 - 3:10am #1072273
HitsterParticipantThey can obviously get Bosh’s salary back from insurance or they reach a pay off with him but it still screws their cap up.
If Bosh was unlikely to play again and knew he would likely retire, could they effectively trade his contract to a team way under cap which needed to get to minimum cap level – for example Philly for the last two years. Bosh wouldn’t play for this team and announces his retirement in due course, team doesn’t pay Bosh as such but his salary gets team to minimum level, Miami gets cap space everyone wins.
The Heat have a big summer ahead with so many FA’s and the query over Bosh’s long term future. If everyone resigns and Bosh gets healthy they are competitive but if some move on and Bosh is game over the Heat will struggle a bit.
Whiteside being retained is the key as he’s one of the better NBA C’s now. He is up for his first big pay day at 27 so I figure he looks for best deal he can get- which the Heat can offer. Deng is 31 now and has a lot of miles on the clock now, he has made good money in his career and probably wants to be on a contender now. Miami have a fair chance of retaining him but may not want to overpay him, a lot will depend what offers he gets.
D-Wade has only been given shorter term deals in the last couple of years, maybe he wants to do it that way as otherwise it’s a bit disresepctful by Miami towards one of their greatest players ever. D-Wade has titles, huge wealth so I don’t see him looking to move on. I figure maybe he will do it year by year again and always have the option to finish when he wants.
Joe Johnson seemed to enjoy moving to Miami and a lot depends on whether he wants to go all out for a title next year. He turns 35 later this month so his playing career is nearing it’s end. But he maybe has 2 or 3 more seasons as a realistic NBA option so could take a year or two in Miami and then reassess things. Joe will be a highly sought after veteran FA given his experience, shooting and leadership. It will depend what his mindset is, does he want to stay out East, move West, uproot himself and any family etc.
0- Posted on: Sat, 06/11/2016 - 4:59am #1072410
OhCanada-ParticipantNo team would help them by absorbing Bosh contract without receiving some sort of compensation. Like stated before their best bet is a low key tank. Field the roster they have purposely strike out in free agency and prolong nagging injuries for Wade, Deng and Dragic to land in the lotto next year and hope for a top 5 pick. Seems like they are destined for a 10th to 8th place finish in the East if they don’t.
But don’t count out Riley. He routinely pulls off miracles and it has become a tradition in Miami.
0 - Posted on: Sat, 06/11/2016 - 4:59am #1072295
OhCanada-ParticipantNo team would help them by absorbing Bosh contract without receiving some sort of compensation. Like stated before their best bet is a low key tank. Field the roster they have purposely strike out in free agency and prolong nagging injuries for Wade, Deng and Dragic to land in the lotto next year and hope for a top 5 pick. Seems like they are destined for a 10th to 8th place finish in the East if they don’t.
But don’t count out Riley. He routinely pulls off miracles and it has become a tradition in Miami.
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- Posted on: Sat, 06/11/2016 - 2:20pm #1072393
HitsterParticipantMiami with Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra have a great duo calling the shots, add in the state tax laws, nice climate and the Heat will always be fairly high up a FA’s ideal destination list.
As regards Bosh the idea was for a team well under the minimum cap level who was going to get fined the difference to take on his "dead contract" so that team actually saves money.
0 - Posted on: Sat, 06/11/2016 - 2:20pm #1072508
HitsterParticipantMiami with Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra have a great duo calling the shots, add in the state tax laws, nice climate and the Heat will always be fairly high up a FA’s ideal destination list.
As regards Bosh the idea was for a team well under the minimum cap level who was going to get fined the difference to take on his "dead contract" so that team actually saves money.
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