This topic contains 18 replies, has 4 voices, and was last updated by 
SubZero 10 years ago.
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- Posted on: Fri, 06/10/2016 - 11:53am #64156
Magic JordanParticipantPretty intersting stuff. I have enjoyed when they do these the past few years. I believe the model was developed by fivethirtyeight so you know it’s respectable and not just some ESPN hacks.
Projections show Ingram as actually the safest pick with the best balance of being an all star, starter vs being a bust. Also has the highest projected SPM (statistical plus-minus) of all the draft participants.
Simmons has the highest bust potential of any player in the top 10 with a whopping 35%. He is also tied with Ingram with the biggest chance of becoming an all star. Basically this years D’Angelo Russell. D Russ was graded last year as having the highest boom vs bust potential by this same model.
Read it over, pick over the list like I know only the NBADraft community can do. Then come back and let’s talk about it.
0 - Posted on: Fri, 06/10/2016 - 12:27pm #1072128
OhCanada-ParticipantLol at last year’s list. Dakari Johnson was least likely to bust. No ranking for Powell or Richardson. At first glance the list looks good but come on, there’s no way to statistically analyze whether or not a player will perform or if a team will develop a player. They just gotta do it!
0 - Posted on: Fri, 06/10/2016 - 12:27pm #1072244
OhCanada-ParticipantLol at last year’s list. Dakari Johnson was least likely to bust. No ranking for Powell or Richardson. At first glance the list looks good but come on, there’s no way to statistically analyze whether or not a player will perform or if a team will develop a player. They just gotta do it!
0 - Posted on: Fri, 06/10/2016 - 12:45pm #1072130
Hype MachineAt first I thought it was odd that all of the top guys have a 50-60% chance of staying on the bench or busting…but if you look at previous drafts the lottery was stacked with them.
So even Philly has a 50-60% chance of getting a non impact player…according to their stats.
Just goes to show what a crapshoot it really is. Injurys in particular can derail anyones NBA career. Some just arent cut out for the big leagues.
Thats why I dont like to be too mainstrean with my mock draft because we are all going to look foolish in 3 years anyways.
Unless youre Chad Ford….who is still updating his 2013 mock draft.
0- Posted on: Fri, 06/10/2016 - 1:25pm #1072136
OhCanada-ParticipantI think that’s because with a developed player like say Gbinjie or Hammond the ceiling has been realize to some extent. You know what you’re getting and you pretty much know he won’t develop into a franchise changing talent. Yet with guys like Bender or Chriss the jury is still out on if they can take those rare skills and eventually develop into top tier talents. You can sign Hawes instead of drafting Hammond but if you are confident you can develop Chriss into the next big thing that opportunity is irreplaceable. If you don’t he’s out of the league’s system in 5 years.
0 - Posted on: Fri, 06/10/2016 - 1:25pm #1072252
OhCanada-ParticipantI think that’s because with a developed player like say Gbinjie or Hammond the ceiling has been realize to some extent. You know what you’re getting and you pretty much know he won’t develop into a franchise changing talent. Yet with guys like Bender or Chriss the jury is still out on if they can take those rare skills and eventually develop into top tier talents. You can sign Hawes instead of drafting Hammond but if you are confident you can develop Chriss into the next big thing that opportunity is irreplaceable. If you don’t he’s out of the league’s system in 5 years.
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- Posted on: Fri, 06/10/2016 - 12:45pm #1072246
Hype MachineAt first I thought it was odd that all of the top guys have a 50-60% chance of staying on the bench or busting…but if you look at previous drafts the lottery was stacked with them.
So even Philly has a 50-60% chance of getting a non impact player…according to their stats.
Just goes to show what a crapshoot it really is. Injurys in particular can derail anyones NBA career. Some just arent cut out for the big leagues.
Thats why I dont like to be too mainstrean with my mock draft because we are all going to look foolish in 3 years anyways.
Unless youre Chad Ford….who is still updating his 2013 mock draft.
0 - Posted on: Fri, 06/10/2016 - 4:23pm #1072182
SubZeroParticipant*technicality: Jaylen Brown and Dejounte Murray are both in their top 10 and have 38% and 50% bust potential, respectively.
0- Posted on: Fri, 06/10/2016 - 4:57pm #1072190
Magic JordanParticipantMy apologies,. I meant top 10 according to their projected SPM.
0- Posted on: Sat, 06/11/2016 - 6:16am #1072420
SubZeroParticipantYeah not a big deal lol just pointing it out cause my initial thought was that they rated him as a more probable bust than Jaylen and I was about to throw my phone off a cliff
0 - Posted on: Sat, 06/11/2016 - 6:16am #1072305
SubZeroParticipantYeah not a big deal lol just pointing it out cause my initial thought was that they rated him as a more probable bust than Jaylen and I was about to throw my phone off a cliff
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- Posted on: Fri, 06/10/2016 - 4:57pm #1072306
Magic JordanParticipantMy apologies,. I meant top 10 according to their projected SPM.
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- Posted on: Fri, 06/10/2016 - 4:23pm #1072298
SubZeroParticipant*technicality: Jaylen Brown and Dejounte Murray are both in their top 10 and have 38% and 50% bust potential, respectively.
0 - Posted on: Fri, 06/10/2016 - 5:16pm #1072194
treytalkssports.comParticipantI love the idea of it, but it is obvious the formula is broken. KAT had a 30% bust potential last year, which was really ridiculous. The Dakari Johnson thing was unforgivable.
This year has Simmons at a higher bust potential than anyone except Jaylen Brown and DeJounte Murray? Comon. Simmons is one of the safest picks in this draft.
Again, I love the idea, but it is obviously broken. I wish they would tink with it more, adding strength of schedule weightings, and other draft rankings (other than Ford).
0 - Posted on: Fri, 06/10/2016 - 5:16pm #1072310
treytalkssports.comParticipantI love the idea of it, but it is obvious the formula is broken. KAT had a 30% bust potential last year, which was really ridiculous. The Dakari Johnson thing was unforgivable.
This year has Simmons at a higher bust potential than anyone except Jaylen Brown and DeJounte Murray? Comon. Simmons is one of the safest picks in this draft.
Again, I love the idea, but it is obviously broken. I wish they would tink with it more, adding strength of schedule weightings, and other draft rankings (other than Ford).
0 - Posted on: Fri, 06/10/2016 - 5:35pm #1072204
OhCanada-ParticipantI just find it hilarious that after crunching the numbers and running the stats through a number of variables and algorithms the conclusion is that Brandon Ingram has eqaul chance to become an all-star, starter, bench player or bust. What was the point of this? What is it really saying? So in 5 years no matter what he becomes these guys are gonna sit at a round table and high five each other and say the formula works. If the formula worked they would not have 4 different probability fields, they would have one defenite prediction. It’s not even a formula I can do this myself.
In 5 years Hype Machine will have a 10% chance he marries Ben Simmons, 10% chance he marries Dante Exum, 10% chance he marries Thon Maker, 10% chance he marries Dellavedova, 10% chance he marries any other Auzzie baller, 60% chance they all say no to his proposal and he just proposes his love for them via the NBADraft.net forum.
0- Posted on: Sat, 06/11/2016 - 6:19am #1072422
SubZeroParticipantNot to be that guy, but that’s 110% lol
I agree though, this formula is pointless. ESPN has shown in the past that they know nothing about prospects though. Fran Frascilla’s good at scouting international guys and that’s about it. I could close my eyes and make a better mock draft than Chad Ford
0 - Posted on: Sat, 06/11/2016 - 6:19am #1072307
SubZeroParticipantNot to be that guy, but that’s 110% lol
I agree though, this formula is pointless. ESPN has shown in the past that they know nothing about prospects though. Fran Frascilla’s good at scouting international guys and that’s about it. I could close my eyes and make a better mock draft than Chad Ford
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- Posted on: Fri, 06/10/2016 - 5:35pm #1072320
OhCanada-ParticipantI just find it hilarious that after crunching the numbers and running the stats through a number of variables and algorithms the conclusion is that Brandon Ingram has eqaul chance to become an all-star, starter, bench player or bust. What was the point of this? What is it really saying? So in 5 years no matter what he becomes these guys are gonna sit at a round table and high five each other and say the formula works. If the formula worked they would not have 4 different probability fields, they would have one defenite prediction. It’s not even a formula I can do this myself.
In 5 years Hype Machine will have a 10% chance he marries Ben Simmons, 10% chance he marries Dante Exum, 10% chance he marries Thon Maker, 10% chance he marries Dellavedova, 10% chance he marries any other Auzzie baller, 60% chance they all say no to his proposal and he just proposes his love for them via the NBADraft.net forum.
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