Offseason Lowdown part 4 – NY Knicks

This is part 4 of a series outlining the upcoming offseason for each team. Each part will break down a team’s cap situation, its short-term & long-term roster outlook, and how each team may approach the draft and free agency. Part 4 will be… the New York Knicks! 

2015/2016 record: 32-50 *Contract values courtesy of Spotrac

Roster (16/17 salary): Melo ($24.6 mil), Lopez ($13.2 mil), Calderon ($7.7 mil), Porzingis ($4.3 mil), O’Quinn ($3.9 mil), Grant ($1.6 mil). TOTAL =~ $55.4 mil

FA’s & Contract options (16/17 option/FA cap hold): Afflalo (PO, $8.0 mil), Williams (PO, $4.4 mil), Wroten (TO, $1.1 mil), Seraphin (UFA, $3.4 mil), Thomas (UFA, $2.1 mil), Amundson (UFA, $1.96 mil), Vujacic (UFA, $1.4 mil), Early (RFA, $4.0 mil), Galloway (RFA, $4.0 mil).

R1 Draft picks (16/17 salary): none

Total Cap Commitment: $55.4 million. $36.6 million in projected cap space.

Backcourt – Assuming Afflalo opts out to test the market, NY only has Calderon, Grant & Wroten (team option), signed in the backcourt. With a very thin roster, no draft picks, and lots of cap space, the Knicks should be big players in free agency. There’s a decent chance Galloway is brought back on a cheap RFA deal, but Calderon could easily be traded if the Knicks find a taker. NY will focus their FA dollars on the backcourt, since the starting frontcourt is set and Phil Jackson & Co have been fairly critical of the team’s guard play. I’m guessing they will be all-in on Conley in free agency, and perhaps make a big offer to an RFA like Clarkson or Fournier. For now, Grant is best suited as a backup PG who has the size to slide over to SG as well, and Galloway/Wroten should be no more than 4^th/5^th guards on the depth chart. Hornacek’s teams (as both a player and coach) have been very guard-oriented, while the triangle typically doesn’t require a top-flight PG. It will be interesting to see how the philosophies collide and whether Jackson will let Hornacek coach his own way.

Frontcourt – The Knicks potentially have a very strong frontcourt, with starters Carmelo, Porzilla & Lopez all under contract for the next 3 seasons. That said, they currently have very little depth. O’Quinn’s impact has never quite matched the #s he’s put up, however he’s still a decent backup C with his ability to protect the rim, rebound and space the floor a bit. Willy Hernangomez (their 2^nd rounder last year) will compete for backup C minutes as well, as he’s likely to be brought over from Europe next season. Early could be brought back for real cheap as an RFA, but he still hasn’t shown to be capable of being an NBA rotation player after 2 years. I expect NY will search through the lower/middle tier of free agents to find some depth on the wing & at forward. Williams could potentially be brought back as well to come off the bench at forward. KD to NY rumors should be shot down pretty quickly once free agency starts.

Outlook – The Knicks are likely to improve provided they don’t strike out in free agency. It would help if Melo could return to his 2012-2014 form, but the key to their improvement will be just how quickly Porzingis develops into a 2-way superstar. The Knicks made some underrated moves in free agency last year by signing RoLo, O’Quinn, Williams and Afflalo. They will need to spend their money wisely again to add quality depth to the roster, and I think they have a great chance to sign Conley in free agency. If they can do that, I’m guessing they’ll also trade Calderon in a pure salary dump to create room for a couple half-decent FA wings. If things break right for them in free agency and player development (let’s be honest – Kristaps-development), the Knicks could reach that second tier of eastern conference teams after Cleveland as soon as next season.