Measurement and Athleticism Testing Predictor 2016

 The last couple of years, I posted about a guy who uses statistical analysis to try to predict a players future success in the NBA based on their athletic testing. http://www.hardwoordparoxymsm.com

One of the things I always forget to include is that he only really looks at true NBA talent, or the top 30-40 players on big boards. So, if a guy tests really well, but isn’t considered by most scouts to be draftable, they are considered outliers. 

Obviously, you don’t select a player based on athleticism alone, but it can be a tool to help evaluate. 

Point Guards

According to his findings, there is a strong rate of success when teams draft an upperclassman point guard who got at least an 11 seconds on the agility time and a 3.2 on the 3/4 court run. 

Wade Baldwin, Melo Trimble, and Tyler Ullis all successfully beat those two times. Baldwin showed exceptionally well in the combine, but is he a true point guard? Tremble struggled shooting the ball (from what I hear) and that is dropping his stock maybe out of the first round. While Ullis measured better than expected, he is still short. However, all three guys look legit. I also think Dunn would have probably beat those times. 

Shooting Guards

According to his findings, no player has ever succeeded in the NBA as a shooting guard with an agility time above 11.2, regardless of their other athletic scores. He said that he thinks the reason is that you have to be at least that agile to play defense in the NBA. No legit prospects scored over that. 

Combined scores of at least a 6’9” wingspan, 30” no step vert, and 35” step vert normally indicated star potential in shooting guards. Bembry was the only legit prospect with that athleticism, although I think more players are fudging their vertical numbers by lowering their standing reach. Bembry looks legit.

 Small Forwards

According to Petrick, there is no direct correlation between athletic testing and success in the NBA for small forwards. However, as a general rule, taller players have a higher probability of success. Obviously Ingram and Simmons get a bump here, but Chriss (depending on his NBA position) is also interesting. 

Power Forwards

The only correlation he found for power forwards (other than that strength helps rebounding) is that the higher no step and max verticals indicate better potential for defense. This is good news for Chriss. 

Centers

The best correlation he found for center success in the NBA was speed. The faster the center, the better the chance he has to succeed. He also found that centers who combine at least a 3.3 3/4 court speed and 9’2” standing reach almost always have success in the NBA, with the potential for stardom. Damien Jones got the 3.2, but had a dissapointing 8’11” standing reach (maybe to boost his vertical numbers?). Thon Maker had a 9’2.5” standing reach and a 3.3 speed. 

Of the guys who actually participated, Baldwin, Ullis, Chriss and Bembry are the only guys who are guys who met their positions success metrics. I need to research more on all these guys, but they could be the four gems of this draft. In my opinion, picks 3-12 are all pretty interchangeable, depending on team fit, need, and development. All four of those guys, but especially Baldwin, Chriss, and Bembry look like they have potential to be NBA starters/fringe all-stars if things break right. If they drop out of the lottery, they could be the best value of the draft.