How to spot a bust

 They are bad at playing basketball

 They are bad at playing basketball

 In interviews if a player doesn’t seem driven to improve then teams are probably wary despite the player’s talent and/or potential.  

 In interviews if a player doesn’t seem driven to improve then teams are probably wary despite the player’s talent and/or potential.  

 One would have to look at translatable skills. For example, everyone could say that the way Faried and/or Randle rebounded in college would translate to the NBA or the space creation of Kemba Walker could translate despite his size. 

A second thing would be mentality. Does he play with passion and emotion? Does he go hard consistently? This would include, obviously, competetiveness. Guys who compete can make up for many of their limitations. 

Fit. What team is this guy going to? Is he going to a team that has minutes for him? Is he going to a team with a strong development program? Veterans? System? All imoprtant things.

Injury history. Sorry, Sam Bowie. Sorry, Greg Oden. It happens and it sucks, but it happens. Some guys are busts through no fault of their own. That said, injury history and red flags exist for a reason.

Finally, love of the game. Does he actually LOVE basketball? Ask Andrew Bynum. Please, someone ask Andrew Bynum!

 One would have to look at translatable skills. For example, everyone could say that the way Faried and/or Randle rebounded in college would translate to the NBA or the space creation of Kemba Walker could translate despite his size. 

A second thing would be mentality. Does he play with passion and emotion? Does he go hard consistently? This would include, obviously, competetiveness. Guys who compete can make up for many of their limitations. 

Fit. What team is this guy going to? Is he going to a team that has minutes for him? Is he going to a team with a strong development program? Veterans? System? All imoprtant things.

Injury history. Sorry, Sam Bowie. Sorry, Greg Oden. It happens and it sucks, but it happens. Some guys are busts through no fault of their own. That said, injury history and red flags exist for a reason.

Finally, love of the game. Does he actually LOVE basketball? Ask Andrew Bynum. Please, someone ask Andrew Bynum!

 In regards to the interview process, these kids are for the most part going to say what they think is the best answer even if it’s not true. I’m pretty sure a draft prospect has never said they are not a hard worker. 

 In regards to the interview process, these kids are for the most part going to say what they think is the best answer even if it’s not true. I’m pretty sure a draft prospect has never said they are not a hard worker. 

Does his skill set translate to the NBA.
Also, how does he respond to the talent he plays with and plays against. The great players can elevate there games. Others fold. When you are the best player at every level how do you deal with maybe being the third best player on your team…I guess that would could fall under professionalism and preparation.

Does his skill set translate to the NBA.
Also, how does he respond to the talent he plays with and plays against. The great players can elevate there games. Others fold. When you are the best player at every level how do you deal with maybe being the third best player on your team…I guess that would could fall under professionalism and preparation.

A lot of prospects stay in high school an extra year, prospects that produce well for their age tend to produce more in the pros than those who excel towards the end of their college careers. People get tripped up hyping 23 year old upperclassmen and 20 year old freshman. The other good indicator is people who do not accumulate any hustle stats. Big men who don’t accumulate offensive rebounds and block shots and guards that don’t get steals usually either have a low motor or are athletically overmatched on defense.

A lot of prospects stay in high school an extra year, prospects that produce well for their age tend to produce more in the pros than those who excel towards the end of their college careers. People get tripped up hyping 23 year old upperclassmen and 20 year old freshman. The other good indicator is people who do not accumulate any hustle stats. Big men who don’t accumulate offensive rebounds and block shots and guards that don’t get steals usually either have a low motor or are athletically overmatched on defense.

Rubix Cube… they must be able to solve a Rubix Cube.

Rubix Cube… they must be able to solve a Rubix Cube.

After spending a few minutes thinking about it, there really is no clear way to tell. I guess confidence and competitiveness are two things you must have. Guys that get scared of the moment or shy away from things after some missed shots or turnovers don’t have much of a chance.

After spending a few minutes thinking about it, there really is no clear way to tell. I guess confidence and competitiveness are two things you must have. Guys that get scared of the moment or shy away from things after some missed shots or turnovers don’t have much of a chance.

 Tweener.  Anthony Bennett, Derrick Williams, a small forward height and power forward game.  Same applies to other positions, the scoring guard with point guard size who doesn’t pass.

Competition level.  Fizer, Olowokandi, lots of stats but in college they didn’t play many times against great players or teams.

Off court stuff.  Arrests, violence and unconsciousness don’t help.

The team picking.  Some teams are notorious.  Lots of high picks, lots of bad choices.

 Tweener.  Anthony Bennett, Derrick Williams, a small forward height and power forward game.  Same applies to other positions, the scoring guard with point guard size who doesn’t pass.

Competition level.  Fizer, Olowokandi, lots of stats but in college they didn’t play many times against great players or teams.

Off court stuff.  Arrests, violence and unconsciousness don’t help.

The team picking.  Some teams are notorious.  Lots of high picks, lots of bad choices.

 I think the most important thing when watching and evaluating prospects is to do so objectively without buying into the hype surrounding them. Believe me, this is a lot easier said than done. You have to keep in mind that arbitrary things like classic rankings and mock drafts are just one person’s opinion and are not always accurate indicators of a player’s talent level.

 I think the most important thing when watching and evaluating prospects is to do so objectively without buying into the hype surrounding them. Believe me, this is a lot easier said than done. You have to keep in mind that arbitrary things like classic rankings and mock drafts are just one person’s opinion and are not always accurate indicators of a player’s talent level.

 There are signs and sure identifying translatable skills are important, but there are just so many variables that make it hard to know. 

How many really good players have been ruined by injuries? Like injuries that guys had no control over? 

There’s also the motivation…which, its impossible to know how a 19-22 year old is going to handle suddenly having millions of dollars. That changes even the most mature people. 

But I guess I would say the translatable skills and how well a player can fit into a team’s concept. Basketball IQ is important. If a guy "knows how to play"…they’ve already got a better chance than a guy who may have physical skills but doesnt necessarily "get it". 

That”s not always easy to identify watching ESPN and the NCAA Tournament though, or listening to 5 minutes of audio from an interview at the NBA combine. 

 There are signs and sure identifying translatable skills are important, but there are just so many variables that make it hard to know. 

How many really good players have been ruined by injuries? Like injuries that guys had no control over? 

There’s also the motivation…which, its impossible to know how a 19-22 year old is going to handle suddenly having millions of dollars. That changes even the most mature people. 

But I guess I would say the translatable skills and how well a player can fit into a team’s concept. Basketball IQ is important. If a guy "knows how to play"…they’ve already got a better chance than a guy who may have physical skills but doesnt necessarily "get it". 

That”s not always easy to identify watching ESPN and the NCAA Tournament though, or listening to 5 minutes of audio from an interview at the NBA combine. 

I think to spot a bust, you have to look at the league today, what style it is, would the draftee’s playing style would translate well into the league, does his athletic ability or skill can compensate for his lack of skill or athletecism? can he improve one of those? Will he thrive on a bad situation , like he was drafted on a team with an established star or deep in position as his, and more importantly his attitude, his mindset, will he just coast on his career, will play just to have paycheck, or his drive and mentality to be the best, For me, hardwork beats talent if talent is too lazy. 

I think to spot a bust, you have to look at the league today, what style it is, would the draftee’s playing style would translate well into the league, does his athletic ability or skill can compensate for his lack of skill or athletecism? can he improve one of those? Will he thrive on a bad situation , like he was drafted on a team with an established star or deep in position as his, and more importantly his attitude, his mindset, will he just coast on his career, will play just to have paycheck, or his drive and mentality to be the best, For me, hardwork beats talent if talent is too lazy. 

 Usually, players being touted as a player "with potential but with raw abilities" and then taken with a high pick almost usually ends up becoming a bust. Take for example Hasheem Thabeet… The guys on this site got it right when they were asked who could be the biggest bust in the 2009 draft.

 Usually, players being touted as a player "with potential but with raw abilities" and then taken with a high pick almost usually ends up becoming a bust. Take for example Hasheem Thabeet… The guys on this site got it right when they were asked who could be the biggest bust in the 2009 draft.

 If there name is Anthony Bennett

 If there name is Anthony Bennett

When hype is clearly overselling an ability that won’t really help them in the NBA.

Similar physical traits or on court tendencies to past players who have struggled to make the jump from great or good college player to the NBA.

Minimal or no development on a year to year basis.

Low field goal percentages, especially for big men.

So few players are good enough one on one creators to do it in the NBA, so unless they have elite one on one ability, they’re probably just chuckers who are at best bench sparks or low efficiency scorers for bad teams (IE Waiters @ #4 who I was always skeptical regarding)

When hype is clearly overselling an ability that won’t really help them in the NBA.

Similar physical traits or on court tendencies to past players who have struggled to make the jump from great or good college player to the NBA.

Minimal or no development on a year to year basis.

Low field goal percentages, especially for big men.

So few players are good enough one on one creators to do it in the NBA, so unless they have elite one on one ability, they’re probably just chuckers who are at best bench sparks or low efficiency scorers for bad teams (IE Waiters @ #4 who I was always skeptical regarding)

 6’5 forwards in high school.  Yeah, I am looking at you Adonis Thomas.  BUT, you could see the guy wasn’t that much, as he couldn’t even get off a dunk in the high school dunk contest.  Then he doesn’t do much of anything in college.

If you watch a game, and you have to ask yourself "what does this guy do?" then he probably isn’t that good.

If you wanna be GOOD at something in the NBA then you have to absolutely be GREAT at something in high school.  

What does the guy DO in high school?  Can he shoot?

Can’t shoot?  Then he better be 7’2.

A 6 foot scoring guard in high school who can’t really shoot that well and is like really skinny?  Yes, I DID look at you Joe Jackson.

Well, we had BOTH those guys on some of the same teams at Memphis.  BUT, you could tell that these guys don’t really do a heck of a lot — not COLLEGE SUPERSTARS and probably not NBA material.  

To get from college greatness to NBA success a lot of it is mental, then the work ethic side.  You can also call that TALENT — the talent for being sane, and the talent for working hard.

At the very least, you wanna get a guy who has above average size, speed, athleticism, and length for  his position.  If the guy doesn’t have ANY of those things then, more than likely, he will be a great BUST candidate.  

 6’5 forwards in high school.  Yeah, I am looking at you Adonis Thomas.  BUT, you could see the guy wasn’t that much, as he couldn’t even get off a dunk in the high school dunk contest.  Then he doesn’t do much of anything in college.

If you watch a game, and you have to ask yourself "what does this guy do?" then he probably isn’t that good.

If you wanna be GOOD at something in the NBA then you have to absolutely be GREAT at something in high school.  

What does the guy DO in high school?  Can he shoot?

Can’t shoot?  Then he better be 7’2.

A 6 foot scoring guard in high school who can’t really shoot that well and is like really skinny?  Yes, I DID look at you Joe Jackson.

Well, we had BOTH those guys on some of the same teams at Memphis.  BUT, you could tell that these guys don’t really do a heck of a lot — not COLLEGE SUPERSTARS and probably not NBA material.  

To get from college greatness to NBA success a lot of it is mental, then the work ethic side.  You can also call that TALENT — the talent for being sane, and the talent for working hard.

At the very least, you wanna get a guy who has above average size, speed, athleticism, and length for  his position.  If the guy doesn’t have ANY of those things then, more than likely, he will be a great BUST candidate.  

 2 of the most important things I look for are ball handling and defense.  

they have to be able to somewhat take care of the ball because I believe that is something that if you dont have the foundation in, its very hard to learn on the job in the NBA.  Players with a lot of turnovers are a red flag.

they have to at least show a willingness to play defense, if they dont have that then everything else is moot, particularly if they are athletic.  nothing worse than elite athletes that dont embrace or get enthused about defense.  I dont mean a guy gambling on steals and blocks either.  solid fundamental defense and help IQ.

also, when someone is coming out of HS and looking at the NBA immediately, not even thinking about what they have to do in college.  you cant get too far ahead of yourself.  I think it was a big difference in guys like Anthony Davis and say someone like Josh Selby/Jereme Richmond.  seemed like college was an afterthought to them before they even played their first game.

a lot of other stuff mentioned here is true as well, like motor, team fit, off the court issues, injuries, etc…

 2 of the most important things I look for are ball handling and defense.  

they have to be able to somewhat take care of the ball because I believe that is something that if you dont have the foundation in, its very hard to learn on the job in the NBA.  Players with a lot of turnovers are a red flag.

they have to at least show a willingness to play defense, if they dont have that then everything else is moot, particularly if they are athletic.  nothing worse than elite athletes that dont embrace or get enthused about defense.  I dont mean a guy gambling on steals and blocks either.  solid fundamental defense and help IQ.

also, when someone is coming out of HS and looking at the NBA immediately, not even thinking about what they have to do in college.  you cant get too far ahead of yourself.  I think it was a big difference in guys like Anthony Davis and say someone like Josh Selby/Jereme Richmond.  seemed like college was an afterthought to them before they even played their first game.

a lot of other stuff mentioned here is true as well, like motor, team fit, off the court issues, injuries, etc…

 For guards: Below average athleticism. An average athlete can still be Klay Thompson if 6’7 or taller, but a below average athlete at less than 6’7" is highly likely to bust. Think D Russell.

For bigs: low bbiq is the common denominator of most busts. Guys who don’t even know how to learn. Also, 6’9" height or lower produces a lot of busts. Especially if they lack above average explosiveness. But a high bbiq can help a short PF make it.

Tony Mitchell of North Texas fits both categories, low bbiq and short. Not to mention a tweener.

The things to look for in bigs: high bbiq, mobility, confident shooting stroke, and length.

A big with question marks can make it in the league and overachieve with smarts, mobility/help defense, and confidence in his shot. Even a poor shooting big who shoots with confidence can improve significantly. And decent mobility/help defense will compensate for any issues in man-to-man defense.

Julius Randle appears to be busting, and he has low bbiq, so-so mobility, and a lack of length. He does have a confident shooting stroke, so that will be the one thing that can save him when he improves a bit.

 For guards: Below average athleticism. An average athlete can still be Klay Thompson if 6’7 or taller, but a below average athlete at less than 6’7" is highly likely to bust. Think D Russell.

For bigs: low bbiq is the common denominator of most busts. Guys who don’t even know how to learn. Also, 6’9" height or lower produces a lot of busts. Especially if they lack above average explosiveness. But a high bbiq can help a short PF make it.

Tony Mitchell of North Texas fits both categories, low bbiq and short. Not to mention a tweener.

The things to look for in bigs: high bbiq, mobility, confident shooting stroke, and length.

A big with question marks can make it in the league and overachieve with smarts, mobility/help defense, and confidence in his shot. Even a poor shooting big who shoots with confidence can improve significantly. And decent mobility/help defense will compensate for any issues in man-to-man defense.

Julius Randle appears to be busting, and he has low bbiq, so-so mobility, and a lack of length. He does have a confident shooting stroke, so that will be the one thing that can save him when he improves a bit.

 If history has taught gm’s anything they should avoid prospects (at least in the lottery) that were ranked as high lottery ranked prospects prior to a major injury,or one that is in an area of the body that is paramount to that players transferable (to the nba)skillset;If they got injured during the season directly prior to entering the draft,I think its a big red flag.

 To me this is a major risk given that not all prospects have the same fire once they get injured,and esp if they paid.But also may never return to form regardless.

examples of job killing mistakes (Chris Grant in Cle or should have been in recent memory:

Embiid and Bennett and of course Oden.

However some injury prone prospects are worth a later pick or even a late lottery in a weak draft;

i think of cj mcullum as one good example, and kyrie irving turned out to be a great risk reward,but that was the weakest draft in recent memory at the time so it was a no brainer as his skills are still far and above other guards taken that year. But he is injury prone,and its always in the back of that orgs mind of when will it happen again

 If history has taught gm’s anything they should avoid prospects (at least in the lottery) that were ranked as high lottery ranked prospects prior to a major injury,or one that is in an area of the body that is paramount to that players transferable (to the nba)skillset;If they got injured during the season directly prior to entering the draft,I think its a big red flag.

 To me this is a major risk given that not all prospects have the same fire once they get injured,and esp if they paid.But also may never return to form regardless.

examples of job killing mistakes (Chris Grant in Cle or should have been in recent memory:

Embiid and Bennett and of course Oden.

However some injury prone prospects are worth a later pick or even a late lottery in a weak draft;

i think of cj mcullum as one good example, and kyrie irving turned out to be a great risk reward,but that was the weakest draft in recent memory at the time so it was a no brainer as his skills are still far and above other guards taken that year. But he is injury prone,and its always in the back of that orgs mind of when will it happen again

 who has the ugliest girls lmao

 who has the ugliest girls lmao