How much will 3pt FGA’s continue to rise?

 D

 D

 It’s like passing in the NFL. It’s been steadily on the rise with an increased focus on spacing, and more exciting offenses to watch also win fan approval (and let’s not minimize the role of entertainment, fantasy sports, etc.)

But, as in football, it’s nearly impossible to completely abandon the run (or in basketball, interior scoring), because otherwise defenses can cheat. There always has to be enough of one to keep doing the other. 

 It’s like passing in the NFL. It’s been steadily on the rise with an increased focus on spacing, and more exciting offenses to watch also win fan approval (and let’s not minimize the role of entertainment, fantasy sports, etc.)

But, as in football, it’s nearly impossible to completely abandon the run (or in basketball, interior scoring), because otherwise defenses can cheat. There always has to be enough of one to keep doing the other. 

 I was looking at that stat last year.  They have records going back for years at fivethirtyeight.

I THINK that the 3 pointers taken will peak soon.  But, I was using technical analysis.  

The 3 point boom is turning into a bubble…

I don’t think it doubles from here or anything, but it could rise for the next couple of years — as long as the Warriors do well.  But, if they start to falter then we will go to the next phase of Small Ball pass/movement offense.  

Next we will see bigger versions of Small Ball.  Ball movement will keep getting more and more important.  I think getting a GREAT SHOT will be more important gunning for the 3 pointers.  I also see teams try to experiment with more quick post ups.

Even if the number of 3’s are up, is it up for EVERYBODY or are just a handful of teams making up the increase?  Something to look at and keep an eye on…

 I was looking at that stat last year.  They have records going back for years at fivethirtyeight.

I THINK that the 3 pointers taken will peak soon.  But, I was using technical analysis.  

The 3 point boom is turning into a bubble…

I don’t think it doubles from here or anything, but it could rise for the next couple of years — as long as the Warriors do well.  But, if they start to falter then we will go to the next phase of Small Ball pass/movement offense.  

Next we will see bigger versions of Small Ball.  Ball movement will keep getting more and more important.  I think getting a GREAT SHOT will be more important gunning for the 3 pointers.  I also see teams try to experiment with more quick post ups.

Even if the number of 3’s are up, is it up for EVERYBODY or are just a handful of teams making up the increase?  Something to look at and keep an eye on…

 I don’t know. Teams are actually setting up their offense to generate 3s now, essentially playing outside in instead of inside out, which would have been unthinkable not that long ago. With the success of teams like the warriors, I think we will continue to see a spike in three pointers attempted over the next decade or so until most teams are averaging between 30-40 a game.

However, eventually defenses will adapt to eliminating 3s, which used to be the shots that defenses would want to give up the most. As a result, smart teams and players will adapt and we will probably begin to see a renewed emphasis on interior and mid-range scoring. 

 I don’t know. Teams are actually setting up their offense to generate 3s now, essentially playing outside in instead of inside out, which would have been unthinkable not that long ago. With the success of teams like the warriors, I think we will continue to see a spike in three pointers attempted over the next decade or so until most teams are averaging between 30-40 a game.

However, eventually defenses will adapt to eliminating 3s, which used to be the shots that defenses would want to give up the most. As a result, smart teams and players will adapt and we will probably begin to see a renewed emphasis on interior and mid-range scoring.