Value of draft picks

I think a pick will increase in value after it has been determined. 

For eg. Boston owns the Nets 1st round pick. Let’s say it’s value is 7/10 since Nets suck. 

During the year, if Nets suck really bad, the value goes up to 8/10. 

They end the season with the worst record, the value is 9/10. 

3 teams leapfrog them and they draft #4. The value drops to 8/10. 

Basically, the value is potentially a #1 pick until it is or isn’t. Depending on a teams record, the value fluctuates. 

Bostons picks for Kaminsky were mostly low or unknowns, so they were perceived as low value. 

Cavs gave up Wiggins for Love. Ignore Bennett. Basically, they opted for a proven player who can drop 25/12 over the potential of a superstar. Teams in WIN NOW mode will value draft picks less, and rebuilding teams, more. 

I think a pick will increase in value after it has been determined. 

For eg. Boston owns the Nets 1st round pick. Let’s say it’s value is 7/10 since Nets suck. 

During the year, if Nets suck really bad, the value goes up to 8/10. 

They end the season with the worst record, the value is 9/10. 

3 teams leapfrog them and they draft #4. The value drops to 8/10. 

Basically, the value is potentially a #1 pick until it is or isn’t. Depending on a teams record, the value fluctuates. 

Bostons picks for Kaminsky were mostly low or unknowns, so they were perceived as low value. 

Cavs gave up Wiggins for Love. Ignore Bennett. Basically, they opted for a proven player who can drop 25/12 over the potential of a superstar. Teams in WIN NOW mode will value draft picks less, and rebuilding teams, more. 

Every teams will have cap space next year. That means the “haves” (teams already doing well or in desirable locations) will, as always, get the big fish. Cap space won’t be standing in their way. That will penalize the undesirable teams/locations. Draft picks will be even more important to them.

Luckily, this year, the disparity between the good and bad teams is the smallest I remember it being in a while.

Every teams will have cap space next year. That means the “haves” (teams already doing well or in desirable locations) will, as always, get the big fish. Cap space won’t be standing in their way. That will penalize the undesirable teams/locations. Draft picks will be even more important to them.

Luckily, this year, the disparity between the good and bad teams is the smallest I remember it being in a while.

Clearly, the rookie salary scale will be changed in the next CBA in order to reflect changes in the salary cap. I believe the way picks are perceived vary from team to team. Overall, a higher salary cap means more trade value for the picks.

Not sure what you mean by "relatively low value"… compared to what? Basically if it’s not a top 5-10 pick, it’s considered a high risk and since everyone trades conditional picks… well, if you trade an established player (not a star) for a pick, you’re just getting rid of the salary and receiving an unknown with low salary in return (unless it’s a really deep draft, but you don’t really know in advance).

Some teams with solid development or solid scouting departments might consider this unknown to be less of a shot in the dark.

Clearly, the rookie salary scale will be changed in the next CBA in order to reflect changes in the salary cap. I believe the way picks are perceived vary from team to team. Overall, a higher salary cap means more trade value for the picks.

Not sure what you mean by "relatively low value"… compared to what? Basically if it’s not a top 5-10 pick, it’s considered a high risk and since everyone trades conditional picks… well, if you trade an established player (not a star) for a pick, you’re just getting rid of the salary and receiving an unknown with low salary in return (unless it’s a really deep draft, but you don’t really know in advance).

Some teams with solid development or solid scouting departments might consider this unknown to be less of a shot in the dark.

 As the cap goes up draft pick value may increase as rookie salaries will be relatively low compared to what a complimentary player may look for and teams will look to sign a couple of star players and fill the roster around them.

Unless a pick is unprotected we cannot always gauge it’s trade value. Hinkie is hoping to get a high top 10 pick outside the top 3 from the MCW/Knight trade where he got the Lakers pick from Phoenix.

Boston are sitting on numerous picks from the Nets too which may turn out to be very nice in the next few years.

A team like the Spurs always seems to do very solid scouting and have found some excellent picks way down thew draft. Apart from Tim Duncan being a number 1 pick all his long term running mates post David Robinson weren’t high draft picks.

 As the cap goes up draft pick value may increase as rookie salaries will be relatively low compared to what a complimentary player may look for and teams will look to sign a couple of star players and fill the roster around them.

Unless a pick is unprotected we cannot always gauge it’s trade value. Hinkie is hoping to get a high top 10 pick outside the top 3 from the MCW/Knight trade where he got the Lakers pick from Phoenix.

Boston are sitting on numerous picks from the Nets too which may turn out to be very nice in the next few years.

A team like the Spurs always seems to do very solid scouting and have found some excellent picks way down thew draft. Apart from Tim Duncan being a number 1 pick all his long term running mates post David Robinson weren’t high draft picks.

 Mark Cuban’s already stated that draft picks are skyrocketing in value.

LMAO at that Nets pick only being worth 7/10 right now.

 Mark Cuban’s already stated that draft picks are skyrocketing in value.

LMAO at that Nets pick only being worth 7/10 right now.

With the cap set to increase significantly, draft picks get more valuable because they provide relatively cheaper options for filling roster spots.  With the cap going up, we will see mediocre players getting rich deals.  Superstars will get insanely rich deals (see Lebron James contract strategy for the best example).  

I have always thought that the first 5 picks and arguably the top 7-10 have value because teams are getting potential stars at that level.  These picks will become very valuable because teams can get an NBA contributor or even starter for a few million dollars per year as opposed to paying a rotation player 10-12 mill per year.  

With the cap set to increase significantly, draft picks get more valuable because they provide relatively cheaper options for filling roster spots.  With the cap going up, we will see mediocre players getting rich deals.  Superstars will get insanely rich deals (see Lebron James contract strategy for the best example).  

I have always thought that the first 5 picks and arguably the top 7-10 have value because teams are getting potential stars at that level.  These picks will become very valuable because teams can get an NBA contributor or even starter for a few million dollars per year as opposed to paying a rotation player 10-12 mill per year.  

 Somebody on Grantland said that the value of first round picks is really going up.  Probably Zach Lowe.  

This might also affect second round picks.  Maybe a second round pick is worth more than a 34 year old journeyman making the veteran’s minimum.

Top 5 picks are like lottery tickets.  Picks from 5 to 15 is still a great place to be.  From 15 to 20 you probably want to trade up.  20 to 30 you are thinking about moving down, acquiring multiple second round picks and a deep bench role player that you can sort of use.

Having guys on rookie deals means you can throw more money at top shelf free agents.  You can spend more on your core.  Draft picks are a great way to either build a future core (with top 10 picks) or stock the back end of your roster with cost effective role players.

Another thing though is drafts can be cyclical.  If people think that the last few drafts have been good, then first round picks will be worth more money.  But if we get a bunch of dud drafts the next few years (like 2000), then the value of a 1st round pick will decline.  … that might help 2nd round picks though.  You would then look at the 1986 draft that had some famous/infamous busts at the top of the draft, but then some really good second round talents like Dennis Rodman.  I think Mark Price may have been a second round pick that year too.

Another way of looking at this: the middling veterans will be hurt.  A middle class NBA squeeze.  You can easily see the value of the top guys soaring, and then the value of draft picks is going up too.  So, the classic MLE types or even the random 9th man, his value will fail to keep pace.  Don’t overspend on role players.  They often don’t move the needle, but they are still fairly pricey and can really start to add up, especially if you are up near the salary cap or the luxury tax.

 Somebody on Grantland said that the value of first round picks is really going up.  Probably Zach Lowe.  

This might also affect second round picks.  Maybe a second round pick is worth more than a 34 year old journeyman making the veteran’s minimum.

Top 5 picks are like lottery tickets.  Picks from 5 to 15 is still a great place to be.  From 15 to 20 you probably want to trade up.  20 to 30 you are thinking about moving down, acquiring multiple second round picks and a deep bench role player that you can sort of use.

Having guys on rookie deals means you can throw more money at top shelf free agents.  You can spend more on your core.  Draft picks are a great way to either build a future core (with top 10 picks) or stock the back end of your roster with cost effective role players.

Another thing though is drafts can be cyclical.  If people think that the last few drafts have been good, then first round picks will be worth more money.  But if we get a bunch of dud drafts the next few years (like 2000), then the value of a 1st round pick will decline.  … that might help 2nd round picks though.  You would then look at the 1986 draft that had some famous/infamous busts at the top of the draft, but then some really good second round talents like Dennis Rodman.  I think Mark Price may have been a second round pick that year too.

Another way of looking at this: the middling veterans will be hurt.  A middle class NBA squeeze.  You can easily see the value of the top guys soaring, and then the value of draft picks is going up too.  So, the classic MLE types or even the random 9th man, his value will fail to keep pace.  Don’t overspend on role players.  They often don’t move the needle, but they are still fairly pricey and can really start to add up, especially if you are up near the salary cap or the luxury tax.

 exponentially w/ the increased Salary cap…. B/c all teams will have increased revenue, that will actually nullify any advantage teams who have been fiscally sound may have had… Meaning free agents will have Maximum leverage b/c their options will increase across the board… When we look back, most "Max" players do Not leave their current franchise & now teams will have even more disposable capital to keep their top 2 or 3 players… 

For example, had this happened a few years ago, there is No way OKC trades James Harden… So w/ theoretically Less player movement, Building through the Draft becomes that much more valuable b/c each team will have control over the players they wish to build around really for their entire career… So theoretically the more draft picks a team has, the more opportunities they have to "hit" on a star player early, develop him & then have the ability to pay him more than anyone else & now teams can lock in 2 or 3 "Keystone" pieces…

I would think teams that are Loaded w/ draft picks will have a massive Leverage advantage over teams that don’t have those picks & they can extend that leverage for years… We could see more teams trading legit star players that they feel no longer fit for draft picks b/c teams will be desperate to get those picks…

Very interesting times ahead… Finding a bright GM who can plan long term will be a Must b/c there would seem to be less movement of players in the future… Teams may be in a situation where if they don;t get stars early through the Draft, they will find themsleves in Long droughts… 

 exponentially w/ the increased Salary cap…. B/c all teams will have increased revenue, that will actually nullify any advantage teams who have been fiscally sound may have had… Meaning free agents will have Maximum leverage b/c their options will increase across the board… When we look back, most "Max" players do Not leave their current franchise & now teams will have even more disposable capital to keep their top 2 or 3 players… 

For example, had this happened a few years ago, there is No way OKC trades James Harden… So w/ theoretically Less player movement, Building through the Draft becomes that much more valuable b/c each team will have control over the players they wish to build around really for their entire career… So theoretically the more draft picks a team has, the more opportunities they have to "hit" on a star player early, develop him & then have the ability to pay him more than anyone else & now teams can lock in 2 or 3 "Keystone" pieces…

I would think teams that are Loaded w/ draft picks will have a massive Leverage advantage over teams that don’t have those picks & they can extend that leverage for years… We could see more teams trading legit star players that they feel no longer fit for draft picks b/c teams will be desperate to get those picks…

Very interesting times ahead… Finding a bright GM who can plan long term will be a Must b/c there would seem to be less movement of players in the future… Teams may be in a situation where if they don;t get stars early through the Draft, they will find themsleves in Long droughts…