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- Posted on: Mon, 01/12/2015 - 4:26pm #58836
treytalkssports.comParticipantHere is another look at some of my interpretations of the Sports Tracking stats on nba.com. Please comment and discuss.
1. For all of the talk about Josh Smith’s poor catch-and-shoot 3 point efficiency (25%), he is not the worst in the NBA. Here are five players who have a worse percentage in catch-and-shoot threes: Wade (10%), Lance Stephenson (13%), Reggie Jackson (22%), Jack (23%), and Pondexter (23%).
2. You know that one guy in pickup games who thinks he is a really good shooter, and can occassionally get hot, but most of the time is just a chucker? The two worst in the NBA are CJ Miles at 6.4 catch-and-shoot FGA a game at only 33%, Ariza at 6.1 and 32%.
3. Based on the Player Points Per Game on Drives and Team Points Per Game on Drives ratio, the players are are primarily passers on drives are Lawson (5.2 to 13.5), Dragic (4.1 to 9.2), Wall (4.3 to 8.8), Chalmers (3.8 to 8.6), Payton (3.2 to 8.3), and Burke (2.9 to 8.3). This stat can be a little misleading based on the ability to finish drives or the pass receivers abilities to finish shots, but this number indicates that these players are primarily dangerous for their drive and kick, not their drive and score.
4. The flip side is players who put their head down and forget they have teammates on drives. The ones who are primarily scorers on drives are Wroten (8.2 to 11.3), Reggie Jackson (5.6 to 9.1), Rose (5.6 to 8.3), Gay (4.3 to 6.6), and Burks (4 to 6.1). Again, this number may be skewed somewhat based on their teammates abilities to make shots (Wroten), but these players are primarily dangerous due to their scoring ability on the drive.
5. Anyone want to guess who is the most efficient driver in the game right now? That’s right, Stephon Curry. Maybe we should call him the slash brother (stupid, sorry). He is shooting an amazing 61% on drives. Also in the top 6 are household names like Wade, Dragic, Parker, and Wall, but the fourth on the list may surprise you. Cory Joseph is averaging 55% on 6 drives per game. That’s only one less drive per game than Wade.
6. On the flip side, here are the players who simply need to stop driving: Stuckey (33%), Beverly (35%), and Sessions (35%). Each of these are only at 4 driving attempts per game, but there are several player who are driving a lot, but have terrible efficiency: Burke (7.1 drive attempts at 38%), Payton (7.2 at 38%), and Tyreke Evans (whopping 12 drive attempts per game, but only shooting 39%). Burke’s struggles on the drive are well-known, especially with Exum waiting to get in the game. Payton will probably improve as he get’s used to NBA athletes. But there is really no excuse for Evans. I realize his misses may set up Davis for putbacks, but you simply cannot win against good teams by depending on offensive rebounds that much.
7. Do you ever play pickup games with "black hole" players? You know, the kind that you throw the ball to and never see it again? Unfortunately, the NBA has players like that too. The best way I know how to quantify that is by looking at their points per touch. In other words, they aren’t passing it a lot (the lowest points per touch player in the NBA is Rondo at .1, who is well-known for being too unselfish and unwilling to score). Whether or not they are scoring at a high rate (there is no current way to quanitify that), these are the players who are the most likely to shoot when they get the ball: Muhammad (.55 points per touch), Nick Young (.49 ppt), Klay Thompson (.47 ppt), Anthony Davis (.43), Gerald Green (.40). Obviously, scoring is an important part to the game, and every team needs players who can finish offensive possessions, but my eye test would have guessed that Muhammad, Young, and Green would have been at the top, and the stats back it up. This also may be a small indication of an offensive problem in New Orleans. Davis is a high IQ player and can pass the ball.Why isn’t more of the offense running through him, even if it is just setup passes? Pair this with the last point, and you start to see that maybe they need a little less Evans and a little more Davis as they run their offense. Ideally, they could get Davis’ ppt around where Duncan’s is, which is about .24. The fact is, better ball movement general equals better offense, but the Pelicans are second-worse in the league with only 269 passes per game.
8. This last one is fun. Mtch McGary was jacked up when he got on the court this season. Looking at the average MPH for players, you see the normal players at the top of the list: Mills (4.9mph), Russ Smitth (4.7), Troy Daniels (4.7), Joseph (4.7), Parker (4.6). Scanning through the data, you also see Mitch McGary at a ridiculous 4.7 mph in his only appearance this season. The rook was pretty excited to be out there.
Any comments? Other interpretations? Other interesting stats that you have seen?
0 - Posted on: Mon, 01/12/2015 - 5:48pm #962373
trombonematrix43ParticipantAwesome, solid opinions backed up by great stats. Numbers 3 and 4 really popped out at me. I had no idea Cory Joseph was that efficient. Do you use any other web sites for advanced basketball stats besides nba.com?
0- Posted on: Mon, 01/12/2015 - 5:59pm #962379
treytalkssports.comParticipantI have used some, but lately, I have been mainly studying the player tracking on NBA.com and trying to figure out different interpretations of some of the stats. Obviously, basketball-reference is a good one. I like the PER and WARP too, but those are not pure stats in my opinion. I think they are more an interpretation of stats with weighted values for each stat. I love the RPM stats, but those can be a bit misleading.
Does anyone have any other stats to throw in?
0 - Posted on: Mon, 01/12/2015 - 5:59pm #962520
treytalkssports.comParticipantI have used some, but lately, I have been mainly studying the player tracking on NBA.com and trying to figure out different interpretations of some of the stats. Obviously, basketball-reference is a good one. I like the PER and WARP too, but those are not pure stats in my opinion. I think they are more an interpretation of stats with weighted values for each stat. I love the RPM stats, but those can be a bit misleading.
Does anyone have any other stats to throw in?
0
- Posted on: Mon, 01/12/2015 - 5:48pm #962514
trombonematrix43ParticipantAwesome, solid opinions backed up by great stats. Numbers 3 and 4 really popped out at me. I had no idea Cory Joseph was that efficient. Do you use any other web sites for advanced basketball stats besides nba.com?
0 - Posted on: Mon, 01/12/2015 - 8:11pm #962395
trelos6ParticipantGreat work DefenseWinsChamps
0 - Posted on: Mon, 01/12/2015 - 8:11pm #962536
trelos6ParticipantGreat work DefenseWinsChamps
0 - Posted on: Mon, 01/12/2015 - 8:14pm #962397
benny15Participantis there a stat that tracks the ammount of passes that lead to shot attempts? cause i wouldnt be surprised if Rondo lead that category as well. its a way to interpret players, point guards specifically, who only pass to get an assist and those who have a high apg rate but swing the ball to set up plays as well.
i believe that will give a good indicator of those who get their assists in the flow of their team’s offensive and those that get theirs based on volume mostly. guys like conley against guys like rondo.
0- Posted on: Tue, 01/13/2015 - 5:14am #962562
treytalkssports.comParticipantGood question. There might be two ways to really determine if someone is a ‘selfish passer’ or not.
The first is by looking at the ratio of assists to secondary assists. Typically, more secondary assists mean more ball movement, better offensive rotations, and better shots. Chris Paul is by far the best, with a 9.6 apg to 3.1 secondary apg. That equals to about a 3-1 ratio. Wall is second with about a 5-1 ratio (10.3 to 2.1). Guys like Irving (2.5 to 1) and Conley (3.2 to 1) both have lower assist numbers, but they both have great ratios. As you would guess, the worst of the high-end assist per game guys are Rondo (8.4 to 1), Lowry (7.7 to 1), Lawson (9 to 1), Lebron James, (6.9 to1), and Westbrook (8 to 1). Sometimes, these offenses are based around isolation passers (guys who are isolated by the coach as the primary point-getter for their team, even if they get the points through assists), but sometimes, these players are just trying to get assists, rather than making the right basketball play.
The second way that I can see is by looking at the ratio of passes per game to assist opportunities per game. The fact that player tracking keeps these stats is so cool. A lower ratio may indicate players that the player primarily passes to try to get assists, rather than making good basketball plays. The highest ratio by far is Kemba Walker (73 passes per game to 11 assist opportunities per game, or about 7 to 1). If you have seen the Hornets play, you know their offense involves a lot of Kemba Walker passing, cutting, and getting the ball back after the defense has to rotate. Anyway, the lowest ratios include guys like Rondo (73 to 18, or about 4 to 1, but it was much lower in Boston), Chris Paul (73 to 18, or about 4 to 1), John Wall (69 to 19, or about 3.6 to 1), Lawson (65 to 21, or about 3.1 to 1), Lebron James, 58 to 14, or 4.1 to 1), Westbrook (50 to 13, or 3.8 to 1), James Harden (45 to 13, or 3.5 to 1).
Obviously, if you take these two seperately, you may not get an accurate reading of a players "selfishness" when passing, but if you take them together, there are some players on both lists. Remember, to determine a players ‘selfish passing,’ we are looking for higher first numbers and lower second numbers. Here they are: Rondo (8.4 to 1 and 4 to 1), Lawson (9 to 1 and 3.1 to 1), Westbrook (8 to 1 and 3.8 to 1), and Lebron James (6.9 to 1 and 4.1 to 1). Before this, if I were to guess who would be at the top of this list, I would have probably guessed Rondo and Westbrook. Lawson makes a lot of sense, because this year, his assist numbers have jumped up a lot. I think Lawson is trying to be an elite point guard, a lot, but in the end, he may be hurting his team and being somewhat Rondo-esque.
The fact that Lebron is on both of these lists with these other players in interesting. I would be the first guy to say that sometimes a player does need to be unselfishly selfish. Sometimes, you need a guy who will just make plays for you, even if they are being a bit of a ball-hog. I think this is a bit different for James. His turnovers have been up this year primarily because he wants to make the homerun pass that leads to a big basket, rather than make the right basketball play and the swing the ball. Some of this might have to do with the quality of his teammates, but I still think he needs to make better basketball decisions, even if it leads to fewer assists for him. I wonder if, as he loses more athleticism, this will be a trend for him. I wonder if he will continue to try to do too much as a passer because of his inability to get where he wants to get as a scorer.
What do you think? Are these ratios a potential good indicator of ‘selfish passers.’
0 - Posted on: Tue, 01/13/2015 - 5:14am #962421
treytalkssports.comParticipantGood question. There might be two ways to really determine if someone is a ‘selfish passer’ or not.
The first is by looking at the ratio of assists to secondary assists. Typically, more secondary assists mean more ball movement, better offensive rotations, and better shots. Chris Paul is by far the best, with a 9.6 apg to 3.1 secondary apg. That equals to about a 3-1 ratio. Wall is second with about a 5-1 ratio (10.3 to 2.1). Guys like Irving (2.5 to 1) and Conley (3.2 to 1) both have lower assist numbers, but they both have great ratios. As you would guess, the worst of the high-end assist per game guys are Rondo (8.4 to 1), Lowry (7.7 to 1), Lawson (9 to 1), Lebron James, (6.9 to1), and Westbrook (8 to 1). Sometimes, these offenses are based around isolation passers (guys who are isolated by the coach as the primary point-getter for their team, even if they get the points through assists), but sometimes, these players are just trying to get assists, rather than making the right basketball play.
The second way that I can see is by looking at the ratio of passes per game to assist opportunities per game. The fact that player tracking keeps these stats is so cool. A lower ratio may indicate players that the player primarily passes to try to get assists, rather than making good basketball plays. The highest ratio by far is Kemba Walker (73 passes per game to 11 assist opportunities per game, or about 7 to 1). If you have seen the Hornets play, you know their offense involves a lot of Kemba Walker passing, cutting, and getting the ball back after the defense has to rotate. Anyway, the lowest ratios include guys like Rondo (73 to 18, or about 4 to 1, but it was much lower in Boston), Chris Paul (73 to 18, or about 4 to 1), John Wall (69 to 19, or about 3.6 to 1), Lawson (65 to 21, or about 3.1 to 1), Lebron James, 58 to 14, or 4.1 to 1), Westbrook (50 to 13, or 3.8 to 1), James Harden (45 to 13, or 3.5 to 1).
Obviously, if you take these two seperately, you may not get an accurate reading of a players "selfishness" when passing, but if you take them together, there are some players on both lists. Remember, to determine a players ‘selfish passing,’ we are looking for higher first numbers and lower second numbers. Here they are: Rondo (8.4 to 1 and 4 to 1), Lawson (9 to 1 and 3.1 to 1), Westbrook (8 to 1 and 3.8 to 1), and Lebron James (6.9 to 1 and 4.1 to 1). Before this, if I were to guess who would be at the top of this list, I would have probably guessed Rondo and Westbrook. Lawson makes a lot of sense, because this year, his assist numbers have jumped up a lot. I think Lawson is trying to be an elite point guard, a lot, but in the end, he may be hurting his team and being somewhat Rondo-esque.
The fact that Lebron is on both of these lists with these other players in interesting. I would be the first guy to say that sometimes a player does need to be unselfishly selfish. Sometimes, you need a guy who will just make plays for you, even if they are being a bit of a ball-hog. I think this is a bit different for James. His turnovers have been up this year primarily because he wants to make the homerun pass that leads to a big basket, rather than make the right basketball play and the swing the ball. Some of this might have to do with the quality of his teammates, but I still think he needs to make better basketball decisions, even if it leads to fewer assists for him. I wonder if, as he loses more athleticism, this will be a trend for him. I wonder if he will continue to try to do too much as a passer because of his inability to get where he wants to get as a scorer.
What do you think? Are these ratios a potential good indicator of ‘selfish passers.’
0
- Posted on: Mon, 01/12/2015 - 8:14pm #962538
benny15Participantis there a stat that tracks the ammount of passes that lead to shot attempts? cause i wouldnt be surprised if Rondo lead that category as well. its a way to interpret players, point guards specifically, who only pass to get an assist and those who have a high apg rate but swing the ball to set up plays as well.
i believe that will give a good indicator of those who get their assists in the flow of their team’s offensive and those that get theirs based on volume mostly. guys like conley against guys like rondo.
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