A Few Interpretations of Some Player Tracking Stats

Advanced stats, including player tracking stats, do not tell you the whole story. However, if you frame them with context, you can start to see important things about players that cannot be seen in normal statistics. 

This is an interpretation of these advanced stats. If you think my interpretation is incorrect, please give me your interpretation for discussion’s sake. 

Passing

Assist opportunities per game may be a better indication of play-makers (although there is no qualification of whether those assist opportunities were easy or tough opportunities to score) than simple assists. For instance, if a great passer teams up with a bunch of poor finishers, his assist numbers will be lower. The same is true of an average passer with great finishers. And when a great passer is teamed up with a great finisher, both the passer and finisher are quite successful (Stockton to Malone). 

Michael Carter-Williams creates the sixth most opportunities to score in the NBA. Each of the ones ahead of him average 9-10 assists a game, but he averages 7. I believe that when Noel and Embiid are healthy and learn to use their athleticism to finish, MCW will be a top assist guy in the league. In fact, if the Sixers put anything better than d-leaguers around MCW, his assists would jump up. As long as he doesn’t learn bad habits like shooting too much, as he becomes a more effective distributor, he will become a more efficient scorer as well. I like MCW, but he needs finishers and shooters around him in order to maximize his talents, and the sixers do not have those types of players. 

Defense at the Rim

There is no surprise here, but Kevin Love sucks at defense at the rim. Of the players who have played at least 20 games this year and have at least 4 attempts against them at the rim a game, Kevin Love is the second worst, right after Reggie Evans, at 60%. 

That Jazz are going to have an interesting decision to make with the way Rudy Gobert is playing. He is like a more nimble and confident Roy Hibbert. His offense isn’t there yet, but it is advancing quickly. He is already an elite defender at the rim (39% is good for second in the NBA). The Jazz just invested in Derrick Favors, but Gobert is looking more and more like their center of the future. A frontcourt of Gobert’s defense and Kanter’s defense would make a lot more sense for their team going forward, especially because it would open up the lane and help the development of their young guards. Simply put, Gobert needs more playing time. As a Celtics fan, I would take either Gobert or Favors for a future first pick(s?) and some prospects 

I’ve always been a big Illyasova fan. He could be a really interesting piece on a good team and a tough matchup for opposing teams. There are few bigs who can shoot the three and play good defense at the rim. Illyasova is at 31% (his career number is better) and 44% defense at the rim (sixth in the NBA). 

Chandler, Davis, and Marc Gasol are all known as elite rim protectors. I think they are good players, but their defense at the rim so far this season has been average (50% at the rim). 

Good rebounders vs. Scheme Rebounders

The "rebounding stealing" of Lance Stephenson is well-documented. He has consistently bloated his rebounding stats by ‘stealing’ uncontensted defensive rebounds from front court teammates. Many point guards bloat their rebounds the same way. But you wouldn’t expect that the majority of Chandler Parsons and Gordon Harward’s rebounds are uncontested. I don’t necessarily see them stealing them from teammates, but their numbers are a bit bloated as rebounders.

However, the same thing cannot be said of Shabazz Muhammad. He is the only non-big in the top 50 that has an extremely high contested to uncontested rebound rate. This, to me, says that as the scheme is formed around Muhammad and he is given more uncontested defensive rebounds by teammates, he could be a 7-8 rebound a game guy. 

Scoring Efficiency

Anthony Davis is a lot better of an offensive player today than I ever thought he would be. He is the best all-around finisher in the NBA. He is top 3 in finishing at the rim, on the drive, or shooting outside (only player to be close to the top three in all three categories). He is scary good. 

Which leads me to my next point. He needs an elite play-maker/distributor. Holliday and Evans are both solid, but not elite. Imagine if Davis had Paul distributing to him. Imagine if he was given a ton of easy shots each game. Imagine how gawdy the points and assist numbers would be, and how efficient the offense would be. This is one reason why i wondered about Rondo going to the Pelicans (not gonna happen anymore). I wonder if Ty Lawson or Ricky Rubio are available for the right price? Hey Minny, how about Holliday and Anderson for Rubio, Budinger, and Martin? Hey Denver, how about Holliday and Anderson for Lawson and Arthur. 

Thoughts? Disagree? Other interpretations? Other interesting player tracking stats?