2014 – Historical Comparisons

 Wiggins has similar freshman year stats as MJ and Richard Dumas.  

 Wiggins has similar freshman year stats as MJ and Richard Dumas.  

Have seen you pull a lot of stretches, but where did you come up with this one? Michael Jordan was a third banana on a UNC team that won the title. That team went 32-2 and had the first pick in that years up coming draft in James Worthy. I understand that statistics do not mean everything, as one could watch Michael move and handle the rock to see something was there. The point is, there was a reason he averaged what he did and not more. Not saying he would have been dropping 20 on some other team, but he might have.

MJ’s Freshman year stats:

13.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.2 spg, 0.2 bpg (53.4% FG, 72.2% FT)

So, where is the similarity? Close in FT’s and steals, sort of assists. Just not sure how the two stat lines are synonymous. Now, onto Richard Dumas. He was a different case and his STAT LINE (not his style of play) may have been a tad more similar.

Richard Dumas’ Freshman year stats:

31.2 mpg (can actually find his minutes, can’t find Mike’s) 17.4 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.6 apg, 1.6 spg, 1 bpg (54.6% FG, 74.7% FT)

So, this is probably a tad more similar than Michael, though a tad higher in a few categories. Like Mike, a lot higher FG%. However, Dumas shot 2 three pointers the entire season! He was the top scorer on a 14-16 team where his next scorer was John Starks. Still, does not scream similar scenario. What I will say about college statistics is that they are not necessarily a key for next level success.

Most of the NBA’s best were really good college players, even quite efficient during their time on campus. However, when going over freshman numbers, there seems to be little correlation to determine that those who put up the best numbers always turn into the best NBA players. The encouraging factor behind Andrew Wiggins is that he does some things that definitely seem to translate to the next level. He has been a hugely versatile defender, if anything his defensive capability probably mirror that of Paul George as far as potential impact on that end.

KU’s guards are not great defenders, but Wiggins has shown the ability to guard multiple positions on the perimeter and while he is by no means a finished product on that end, have been very impressed with him defensively. Also, sorry to beat a dead horse, but his athleticism is tremendous. He keeps plays alive that only a handful of other guys would due to this factor. He is really quick and is getting fouled often while doing very well in transition. His stats have not been great and I am sure they will foster doubt amongst people who are not sold on him. Still, I think it boils down to more of what that person may be capable of in a NBA setting as opposed to statistical comparisons from past college players. Factor in that I doubt any of them played Kansas’ schedule and were on a team as young as KU.

Wiggins freshman year has not been perfect and I did expect maybe more from an efficiency standpoint. However, he has been relegated to the wing, whereas most of the players who have really excelled from an efficiency standpoint were playing 4/5 in college, even if they were considered a potential SF prospect at the next level. This undoubtedly helps their rebounding numbers and other factors that would lead to higher PER’s. There are 14 NBA SF’s who have an over 15 (set as the league average) PER this season for those qualified. 35 PF’s! 36 C’s! In fact, Luol Deng played a lot of PF when he was at Duke, as well.

People expected Parker to be more "college ready". He was. That does not necessarily clearly translate to the NBA. Especially as a defender. I am not among the people who thinks Parker is a bad defender, though I do think it will be a difficult transition for him guarding more perimeter oriented players. He will have to get into better shape to maximize his ability to do so. Wiggins will have to gain strength to fight through contact and of course work on his ball handling, outside shooting consistency. Still feel that this is something I am encouraged by from Wiggins as the year has progressed. He is becoming more confident, which to me has made him more assertive.

What I am ultimately trying to point out is that freshman year stats are not always an exact measurable of next level ability. Carmelo Anthony had a huge freshman year and has been awesome in the NBA, but many would consider Paul George to be if not better, at least on his level (His PER, by the way, 20.8 to Anthony’s 25.1 this season). Hell, I definitely like Paul George more right now.

Paul’s freshman year had promise, but his sophomore year was disappointing. Still, some loved his potential (have a friend, Kris Habbas, who had him as the #2 prospect in the 2010 Draft) because of his combination of physical attributes, athleticism and ability. Those things matter in the NBA. They are more so why Joel Embiid and Andrew Wiggins are going to be drafted where they are as opposed to their college statistics.

With comparing Embiid to Drummond, realize he was a year older than Drummond was as a freshman. Not a slight to Embiid and the potential he has, though I do believe an extra year of physical and mental maturity might be helpful with him having the freshman year he is. Judging by his last season in HS, had he actually gone to college instead, doubt he would be even near that production wise.

What makes him so enticing is how much he has improved in a short time, along with his insane combination of size, length, agility and athleticism. Throw in that he actually has touch, that is one hell of a prospect. Even so, most people used Andre Drummond’s statistics as a slight. After a year and a half later, now they are being used to legitimize a prospect many believe will be the first pick in the draft. Hindsight does funny things, lol.

So, while I appreciate the effort of trying to find NBA comparisons for these top prospects production, I tend to think that everyones situation is a tad different. I know that ESPN tends to make guesses on the PER’s of draft prospects headed to the league and while they may use comparable players or stats, think they also must factor in some things the prospect excels in for their style to translate to the next level.

I feel a more wide open style will work in Andrew Wiggins favor. I also think he will be a fine rebounder at the next level for a wing and he has started to show ability as a playmaker. While the comparable guys do not scream superstar, not every superstar put up huge college efficiency as a freshman. Paul Pierce and Vince Carter weren’t incredibly efficient as freshman, both being highly touted HS prospects (not to the extent of Wiggins, but still highly acclaimed). We didn’t see Kobe Bryant or Tracy McGrady play in college, but both had rookie seasons that were pretty forgettable.

AM NOT calling Andrew Wiggins any of these players, just pointing out that he has some things that make him a fantastic prospect. Whether he is a great player will be up to how hard he works in his development, just am not sure it is necessarily in comparing his numbers to the freshman season of past wing players. My guess is if he does get placed with the players mentioned in the OP’s initial segment beyond George, it would be disappointing. Yet, his floor more than likely being a borderline All-Star has to be enticing as he still does have a ceiling that could be that of a perennial All-Star.

Have seen you pull a lot of stretches, but where did you come up with this one? Michael Jordan was a third banana on a UNC team that won the title. That team went 32-2 and had the first pick in that years up coming draft in James Worthy. I understand that statistics do not mean everything, as one could watch Michael move and handle the rock to see something was there. The point is, there was a reason he averaged what he did and not more. Not saying he would have been dropping 20 on some other team, but he might have.

MJ’s Freshman year stats:

13.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.2 spg, 0.2 bpg (53.4% FG, 72.2% FT)

So, where is the similarity? Close in FT’s and steals, sort of assists. Just not sure how the two stat lines are synonymous. Now, onto Richard Dumas. He was a different case and his STAT LINE (not his style of play) may have been a tad more similar.

Richard Dumas’ Freshman year stats:

31.2 mpg (can actually find his minutes, can’t find Mike’s) 17.4 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.6 apg, 1.6 spg, 1 bpg (54.6% FG, 74.7% FT)

So, this is probably a tad more similar than Michael, though a tad higher in a few categories. Like Mike, a lot higher FG%. However, Dumas shot 2 three pointers the entire season! He was the top scorer on a 14-16 team where his next scorer was John Starks. Still, does not scream similar scenario. What I will say about college statistics is that they are not necessarily a key for next level success.

Most of the NBA’s best were really good college players, even quite efficient during their time on campus. However, when going over freshman numbers, there seems to be little correlation to determine that those who put up the best numbers always turn into the best NBA players. The encouraging factor behind Andrew Wiggins is that he does some things that definitely seem to translate to the next level. He has been a hugely versatile defender, if anything his defensive capability probably mirror that of Paul George as far as potential impact on that end.

KU’s guards are not great defenders, but Wiggins has shown the ability to guard multiple positions on the perimeter and while he is by no means a finished product on that end, have been very impressed with him defensively. Also, sorry to beat a dead horse, but his athleticism is tremendous. He keeps plays alive that only a handful of other guys would due to this factor. He is really quick and is getting fouled often while doing very well in transition. His stats have not been great and I am sure they will foster doubt amongst people who are not sold on him. Still, I think it boils down to more of what that person may be capable of in a NBA setting as opposed to statistical comparisons from past college players. Factor in that I doubt any of them played Kansas’ schedule and were on a team as young as KU.

Wiggins freshman year has not been perfect and I did expect maybe more from an efficiency standpoint. However, he has been relegated to the wing, whereas most of the players who have really excelled from an efficiency standpoint were playing 4/5 in college, even if they were considered a potential SF prospect at the next level. This undoubtedly helps their rebounding numbers and other factors that would lead to higher PER’s. There are 14 NBA SF’s who have an over 15 (set as the league average) PER this season for those qualified. 35 PF’s! 36 C’s! In fact, Luol Deng played a lot of PF when he was at Duke, as well.

People expected Parker to be more "college ready". He was. That does not necessarily clearly translate to the NBA. Especially as a defender. I am not among the people who thinks Parker is a bad defender, though I do think it will be a difficult transition for him guarding more perimeter oriented players. He will have to get into better shape to maximize his ability to do so. Wiggins will have to gain strength to fight through contact and of course work on his ball handling, outside shooting consistency. Still feel that this is something I am encouraged by from Wiggins as the year has progressed. He is becoming more confident, which to me has made him more assertive.

What I am ultimately trying to point out is that freshman year stats are not always an exact measurable of next level ability. Carmelo Anthony had a huge freshman year and has been awesome in the NBA, but many would consider Paul George to be if not better, at least on his level (His PER, by the way, 20.8 to Anthony’s 25.1 this season). Hell, I definitely like Paul George more right now.

Paul’s freshman year had promise, but his sophomore year was disappointing. Still, some loved his potential (have a friend, Kris Habbas, who had him as the #2 prospect in the 2010 Draft) because of his combination of physical attributes, athleticism and ability. Those things matter in the NBA. They are more so why Joel Embiid and Andrew Wiggins are going to be drafted where they are as opposed to their college statistics.

With comparing Embiid to Drummond, realize he was a year older than Drummond was as a freshman. Not a slight to Embiid and the potential he has, though I do believe an extra year of physical and mental maturity might be helpful with him having the freshman year he is. Judging by his last season in HS, had he actually gone to college instead, doubt he would be even near that production wise.

What makes him so enticing is how much he has improved in a short time, along with his insane combination of size, length, agility and athleticism. Throw in that he actually has touch, that is one hell of a prospect. Even so, most people used Andre Drummond’s statistics as a slight. After a year and a half later, now they are being used to legitimize a prospect many believe will be the first pick in the draft. Hindsight does funny things, lol.

So, while I appreciate the effort of trying to find NBA comparisons for these top prospects production, I tend to think that everyones situation is a tad different. I know that ESPN tends to make guesses on the PER’s of draft prospects headed to the league and while they may use comparable players or stats, think they also must factor in some things the prospect excels in for their style to translate to the next level.

I feel a more wide open style will work in Andrew Wiggins favor. I also think he will be a fine rebounder at the next level for a wing and he has started to show ability as a playmaker. While the comparable guys do not scream superstar, not every superstar put up huge college efficiency as a freshman. Paul Pierce and Vince Carter weren’t incredibly efficient as freshman, both being highly touted HS prospects (not to the extent of Wiggins, but still highly acclaimed). We didn’t see Kobe Bryant or Tracy McGrady play in college, but both had rookie seasons that were pretty forgettable.

AM NOT calling Andrew Wiggins any of these players, just pointing out that he has some things that make him a fantastic prospect. Whether he is a great player will be up to how hard he works in his development, just am not sure it is necessarily in comparing his numbers to the freshman season of past wing players. My guess is if he does get placed with the players mentioned in the OP’s initial segment beyond George, it would be disappointing. Yet, his floor more than likely being a borderline All-Star has to be enticing as he still does have a ceiling that could be that of a perennial All-Star.

 I was never as high on wiggins as most but I still think he will be a very good pro and possibly on the level of Paul Geroge (that’s who he reminds me of).  Jabari is a bad defender man to man but a good one when it comes to help defense (as far as help side blocking) but if he lost weight I could see him being better as a defender. His mind set has to change on that end though because he wasn’t a good defender in H.S either (his coach even said they would put him on the weaker offensive player when they played man).  

Embiid has star potential but I don’t see the cousins comparision. Cousins was a good amount more skilled on offense where as Embiid shows flashes of that same skill.  Embiid will be 20 in March, Drummond turned 20 last august

 I was never as high on wiggins as most but I still think he will be a very good pro and possibly on the level of Paul Geroge (that’s who he reminds me of).  Jabari is a bad defender man to man but a good one when it comes to help defense (as far as help side blocking) but if he lost weight I could see him being better as a defender. His mind set has to change on that end though because he wasn’t a good defender in H.S either (his coach even said they would put him on the weaker offensive player when they played man).  

Embiid has star potential but I don’t see the cousins comparision. Cousins was a good amount more skilled on offense where as Embiid shows flashes of that same skill.  Embiid will be 20 in March, Drummond turned 20 last august