This topic contains 12 replies, has 6 voices, and was last updated by AvatarAvatar Bmore_DC 12 years, 5 months ago.

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  • Posted on: Wed, 01/08/2014 - 6:34pm #53311
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    highflyer0
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     I love the NBA draft and I love hearing different opinions about players, opinions that can not be found on ESPN for a variety of reasons.  I don’t always agree with what people have to say, but I usually respect their opinions.  However, I have one pet peeve about prospect analysis.  I hate when people label a top prospect’s ceiling as merely a "solid starter" or "borderline all-star" simply because he does not have elite athleticism and/or size.  I feel like this is very relevant to this upcoming draft, and here’s why.

    Marcus Smart is one of the greatest players in college player.  He has elite strength, great size, an amazing work ethic, and very good skills for his position.  Because of this, he is projected by most as a top-5 pick, which is not a head scratcher by any stretch of the imagination.  Despite his projected draft spot, many label him as a low risk yet semi-low reward type of prospect.  I have heard many arguments about how he will be a good not great player, and he just does not have the tools to be a truly elite player.  To be clear, I am not stating that I believe he is guaranteed to be a multiple time all-star, but I am saying that he is just as likely to reach superstardom as any other of the top prospects. The reason that people say he has a lower ceiling than Wiggins, Parker, Embiid, Exum etc is because they are underestimating the value of work ethic.  

    When Kevin Love came out of college, he was highly touted, but most people labeled him similarly to Smart in terms of being a safe pick.  Many analysts predicted that he would be a solid player but very few saw superstardom in him.  He is not an elite athlete; he does not have elite size, but he worked extremely hard to maximize every ounce of talent that he has, and the result is arguably the best power forward in the game today.  Anthony Randolph was drafted much higher than Serge Ibaka, and it’s not hard to see why.  He had an amazing combination of athleticism, fluidity and size, and his basketball skills surely exceeded those of Ibaka at the time.  However, Serge is known as one of the league’s hardest workers and look what he has become, a key starter on the best team in the West. Now, my final example is the one that I think is the most supportive of my point.  Arron Afflalo, when he came out of college was projected as having a very low ceiling, a solid role player at best, and a fringe contributor at worst. His athleticism is lacking, his size is average for his position, and even his shooting was questionable at the time when he was drafted.  I highly doubt that even his biggest supporters could have predicted that he’d be averaging 22 points per game someday in the NBA.  Afflalo, when at UCLA, was considered to be one of the hardest working players to ever come through the program.  It sounds a bit cliche, I’ll admit, but you can’t deny the facts.  Hard work alone turned a borderline first-round guy with "limited upside" into a borderline all-star. 

    This is where I return to Marcus Smart.  Wiggins may very well turn out to be better than Smart.  In fact, if I were drafting today, there’s a good chance I’d choose Wiggins over him.  BUT, if Marcus Smart truly has the work ethic that he is said to have, it would not surprise me in the least bit if he becomes the best player from this loaded draft class.  Smart is far superior to Afflalo in terms of athletic ability, court vision, ball handling, and size for his position at the same age, and it isn’t very close.  If Afflalo could turn himself into a borderline all-star through his own desire to be great, and Smart shares that same level of desire, any notion that he has a low ceiling is truly ridiculous; the sky would be the limit.

     

     

     

     

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  • Posted on: Wed, 01/08/2014 - 6:46pm #861054
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    he_gets_buckets
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    I think the reason people dont project players who lack the wow factor with their athelticism as low reward players is because a lot of the time when guys do come in as highly skilled but lack athleticism they cant play a lick of D. Point in case, your example of K-Love. I love Kevin, hes my favourite player, but he just cant match up with the athletes in the NBA on the D side of things. This is what scares me most about Marcus, because despite being a tenaciously hard worker, he isnt extremely athletically gifted, and struggles to slide his feet in stance and stay in front of guys at the college level, and at the NBA level where he will more then likely be playing point, he is going to get blown by a lot. I’m also not sure his bully ball physical style will be as effective in the NBA because whilst he still is a top notch physical specimen, there are plenty of guys who are just as strong in the NBA and wont let him beat up on them. I still think he will be a great player because he has the work ethic and base skills to be great, however im not sure he can be a star unless he pulls a complete rework of his jumper and makes that thing money, because if he cant blow by people in the NBA, he’s going to have to be able to keep them honest from deep still. 

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    • Posted on: Wed, 01/08/2014 - 8:06pm #861064
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      Hector_Reyes_8
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      His defense has gotten better. He’s never going to be a great defensive player, but he isn’t a liability anymore.

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    • Posted on: Wed, 01/08/2014 - 8:06pm #861171
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      Hector_Reyes_8
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      His defense has gotten better. He’s never going to be a great defensive player, but he isn’t a liability anymore.

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  • Posted on: Wed, 01/08/2014 - 6:46pm #861161
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    he_gets_buckets
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    I think the reason people dont project players who lack the wow factor with their athelticism as low reward players is because a lot of the time when guys do come in as highly skilled but lack athleticism they cant play a lick of D. Point in case, your example of K-Love. I love Kevin, hes my favourite player, but he just cant match up with the athletes in the NBA on the D side of things. This is what scares me most about Marcus, because despite being a tenaciously hard worker, he isnt extremely athletically gifted, and struggles to slide his feet in stance and stay in front of guys at the college level, and at the NBA level where he will more then likely be playing point, he is going to get blown by a lot. I’m also not sure his bully ball physical style will be as effective in the NBA because whilst he still is a top notch physical specimen, there are plenty of guys who are just as strong in the NBA and wont let him beat up on them. I still think he will be a great player because he has the work ethic and base skills to be great, however im not sure he can be a star unless he pulls a complete rework of his jumper and makes that thing money, because if he cant blow by people in the NBA, he’s going to have to be able to keep them honest from deep still. 

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  • Posted on: Wed, 01/08/2014 - 6:53pm #861056
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    highflyer0
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     Thanks for the reply.  I agree with most everything you said.  However, if his work ethic is as special as they say, he should become a very good shooter, which would make him terriffic.  Defense is an issue, but I think he has a solid base of a physical tools, unlike many poor defenders.  He may not ever be a great defender, but I think his size and strength will help to compensate for his lack of lateral quickness.  Only time will tell.

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  • Posted on: Wed, 01/08/2014 - 6:53pm #861163
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    highflyer0
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     Thanks for the reply.  I agree with most everything you said.  However, if his work ethic is as special as they say, he should become a very good shooter, which would make him terriffic.  Defense is an issue, but I think he has a solid base of a physical tools, unlike many poor defenders.  He may not ever be a great defender, but I think his size and strength will help to compensate for his lack of lateral quickness.  Only time will tell.

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  • Posted on: Wed, 01/08/2014 - 7:33pm #861062
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    usfballer
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     Thanks for defending Marcus Smart. He seems to be taking a beating in the ‘perception’ department, but it doesn’t seem to be harming his actual stock any.  I’ve always thought Smart reminded me of a young Joe Dumars-minus the jumpshot. I also believe that with his work ethic it is only a matter of time before he has a respectable J. 

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  • Posted on: Wed, 01/08/2014 - 7:33pm #861169
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    usfballer
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     Thanks for defending Marcus Smart. He seems to be taking a beating in the ‘perception’ department, but it doesn’t seem to be harming his actual stock any.  I’ve always thought Smart reminded me of a young Joe Dumars-minus the jumpshot. I also believe that with his work ethic it is only a matter of time before he has a respectable J. 

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  • Posted on: Wed, 01/08/2014 - 9:20pm #861193
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    XYRYX
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     Good argument about the ‘lack of athletism’ or potential of some players. I don’t like it too when someone is labeled a borderline All Star or my favorite anti statement is saying someones highest ceiling is a 2nd or 3rd option on a bad team. That’s flat out stupid to say something like that. Gordon Hayward is a prime example to me and this has nothing to do with his 37/11/7 game vs the Thunder. Beeing a good or the best player on a very bad team works both ways in terms of success or development. He struggles sometimes with his shot but at this young age beeing the ONLY reliable perimeter player and until Burke came back the only distributor is very tough to me. Every night the main focus is on you defensively and of course he has a hard time getting a good shot off.

    How good someone can be is up to his teams situation first, coaching, then his desire to be great and after that up to his talent in my definition. The Kings or Cavs had plenty of opportunities in the draft to assamble a great, talented team but instead only went for their opinion of bpa. You need a plan how this group can work out together and not just wait who will come out best from let’s say 5 lottery picks used on 3 positions. Barkley said a few days ago, that many people overvalue talent. Toughness and energy are as valuable as talent to him and I totally agree.

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  • Posted on: Wed, 01/08/2014 - 9:20pm #861086
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    XYRYX
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     Good argument about the ‘lack of athletism’ or potential of some players. I don’t like it too when someone is labeled a borderline All Star or my favorite anti statement is saying someones highest ceiling is a 2nd or 3rd option on a bad team. That’s flat out stupid to say something like that. Gordon Hayward is a prime example to me and this has nothing to do with his 37/11/7 game vs the Thunder. Beeing a good or the best player on a very bad team works both ways in terms of success or development. He struggles sometimes with his shot but at this young age beeing the ONLY reliable perimeter player and until Burke came back the only distributor is very tough to me. Every night the main focus is on you defensively and of course he has a hard time getting a good shot off.

    How good someone can be is up to his teams situation first, coaching, then his desire to be great and after that up to his talent in my definition. The Kings or Cavs had plenty of opportunities in the draft to assamble a great, talented team but instead only went for their opinion of bpa. You need a plan how this group can work out together and not just wait who will come out best from let’s say 5 lottery picks used on 3 positions. Barkley said a few days ago, that many people overvalue talent. Toughness and energy are as valuable as talent to him and I totally agree.

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  • Posted on: Thu, 01/09/2014 - 5:24am #861257
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    Bmore_DC
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     I’ve seen Smart play a few times and I don’t get the knock on his athleticism…

    if he lacks athleticism then I don’t know what athleticism is! He will be a good nba player.

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  • Posted on: Thu, 01/09/2014 - 5:24am #861150
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    Bmore_DC
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     I’ve seen Smart play a few times and I don’t get the knock on his athleticism…

    if he lacks athleticism then I don’t know what athleticism is! He will be a good nba player.

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