NBA Draft… Hit or Miss

The Barron’s post, ranking the number one picks over the last 24 years gave me an idea. While reading his post I kept thinking about the player who SHOULD’VE been the 1st pick that year. I figured this would be good conversation since the 2009 draft is approaching.

1985 – Patrick Ewing: Ewing
1986 – Brad Daugherty: Daugherty, even though his career only lasted 8 seasons.
1987 – David Robinson: Robinson, but Scottie Pippen (5th) is close!
1988 – Danny Manning: Mitch Richmond (5th), but Manning’s career was slowed by knee injuries.
1989 – Pervis Ellison: It’s between Shawn Kemp (17th), Tim Hardaway (14th) & Glen Rice (4th). I’m going w/ Kemp.
1990 – Derrick Coleman: Gary Payton (2nd)
1991 – Larry Johnson: Dikembe Mutumbo. Johnson would’ve been my pick if he hadn’t gotten injured.
1992 – Shaquille O’Neal: O’Neal, however Alonzo Mourning (2nd) had a great career.
1993 – Chris Webber: Webber, though Penny Hardaway (3rd) was the sh*t!
1994 – Glenn Robinson: Jason Kidd (2nd) or Grant Hill (3rd)? I’m going w/ Kidd, but Hill would’ve been my pick if he hadn’t gotten injured.
1995 – Joe Smith: Kevin Garnett (5th).
1996 – Allen Iverson: One of the greatest drafts in NBA history (along w/ 1984 & 2003). Iverson has had a great career, but Kobe Bryant (13th) is a no brainer.
1997 – Tim Duncan: Duncan
1998 – Michael Olowokandi: Olowokandi… LOL jk. It’s between Dirk Nowitzki (9th), Paul Pierce (10th) & Vince Carter (5th). I’m going w/ Nowitzki followed by Pierce.
1999 – Elton Brand: This draft was real nice, however I’m going w/ Brand. MANU GINOBLI WAS THE 57TH PICK… CRAZY.
2000 – Kenyon Martin: This was a weak draft. Martin’s closest competition is Jamal Crawford (8th).
2001 – Kwame Brown: This is a tough one… Pau Gasol (3rd), Joe Johnson (10th), Tony Parker (28th) or Gilbert Arenas (31st). At this point, I’m going w/ Parker followed closely by Gasol.
2002 – Yao Ming: Yao, but Amare Stoudemire is close.
2003 – LeBron James: James, but I’m sure Dwayne Wade would disagree!
2004 – Dwight Howard: Howard
2005 – Andrew Bogut: Chris Paul
2006 – Andrea Bargnani: Brandon Roy
2007 – Greg Oden: I’m an Oden fan, but it looks like Durrant at this point.
2008 – Derrick Rose: It’s early, but Rose looks to be the one at this point.

I didn’t really take into account injuries, but one major thing stood out to me… The right player was picked #1 only 12 times out of the last 24 drafts. That’s 50%, which is basically hit or miss. Will Blake Griffin be a hit or a miss? For those of you who think he’ll be a miss, what players could potentially supplant him as the player that SHOULD’VE been drafted 1st in this upcoming draft?