Lakerland Should Be Concerned

Despite Kobe’s proclamation that everyone doubting his team is "dumb" or "idiotic," Lakers’ fans should be worried.

The Lakers have started 0-2 for the first time in over 50 years and will likely be 0-3 in a few hours. And it’s very possible they never pull it together enough to be real contenders. In addition to their average offensive production, their D is terrible. And while there’s plenty of reason to believe their offense should pull things together with more time, there’s plenty of reason to suspect their D never will.

The Lakers’ two biggest problems are (1) they have a terrible bench and (2) their guards/wings cannot defend. Neither of those issues are going to change. Kobe/Meta have old legs. They simply cannot hang with talented your legs anymore on D. There was a time both were standout defenders. Those days are long gone. And Nash has been a swinging door for years. Every athletic pg that wants to spend all night in the Lakers’ paint can do so, keeping the entire team off balance–and that’s when the Lakers’ dominant players are on the floor. When the starters leave, it gets uglier. I simply can see no way the Lakers can fix this structural deficiency. They simply don’t have the personnel to even slow down the West’s top pgs. If Howard returns to his Orlando form on D (big if) it will help, but even that likely won’t be enough.

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In a previous thread when Nash was acquired, I stated that LA’s history of terrible point guard play over the last 15+ years should not just be blamed on the pgs. Kobe’s ball dominant style (which has not disappeared with the arrival of Nash) kills a pgs ability to be a play maker. It generally works well with bigs, but is incompatible with a play making pg.

Several years ago the Lakers got an influx of talented vets (Payton/Malone), and surprisingly, the team did not improve. It’s true both vets were already on the decline, but they were far better than they were allowed to be on Kobe’s team. Consider the stats:

Gary Payton (2002-03/Bucks Avgs): 19.6 ppg, 7.4 apg, 1.4 spg

Gary Payton (2003-04/LAL Avgs): 14.6 ppg, 5.5 apg, 1.2 spg

Karl Malone (2002-03/Jazz Avgs): 20.6 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 4.3 apg

Karl Malone (2003-04/LAL Avgs): 13.3 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 3.9 apg

Karl Malone’s stat decline was partly due to injury (he missed half of the season) and, as I mentioned, Kobe has generally played well with bigs. But Payton’s numbers are legitimate. He was healthy and started 82 games that year, but with Kobe, Payton could not flourish. He went from being a 20/7 pg to being a 15/5 pg overnight. We are only two games into this season, so averages should be taken with a grain of salt. However, Nash is now 2 for 2 on historically bad games for him and it seems almost certain that he’ll have the worst season of his career since becoming a starter. Although the sample size is way too small to draw any real conclusions, thus far things are looking terrible for Nash:

Nash (2011-12 Suns Avgs): 12.5 ppg, 10.7 apg, 31 MPG

Nash (2012-13 LAL Avgs): 4.5 ppg, 4.0 apg, 25 MPG

As for Nash’s vaunted 50/40/90 shooting percentages? Thus far he’s 33/20/(no free throws yet) in yellow and purple. The Lakers, led by Kobe Bryant, is a place playmaking pgs cannot thrive. Kobe, and Lakers’ fans generally, have used their weak pg play as a primary scapegoat for years. Payton and Nash demonstrate that the problems run deeper.  I predicted when Nash was traded that he would average no better than 8 ppg and 7 apg this season and that his 50/40/90 days were behind him.

I’m still predicting that the Lakers will be a playoff team. After an 0-3 start they’ll bounce back and be around .500 after ten games. And they’ll likely finish in the 3-6 range in the West. But they won’t make the finals. The first team they face with elite pg play will end them in the playoffs, and it’s hard to avoid those teams out West.