Does Staying in School Help Top 10 Talent?

This topic contains 7 replies, has 6 voices, and was last updated by FastAndFurious 14 years ago.

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Posted on: Mon, 06/25/2012 - 10:24am #40840

SportsNinja
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There was a post about Sullinger not being invited into the green room, and where he would have gone last year had he declared. This made me think about where he, Barnes, and PJ would have been drafted last year. Barnes stock hasn’t really dropped too much, but it certainly hasn’t risen, and I think all 3 would have been taken earlier than they will this year.

This is why the draft is such a crapshoot. I know some of these players have followings starting in middle school, but one year of college isn’t an ideal amount of time to judge a prospect. However if they stay until they are juniors (like TRob) the experience can play against them. Teams have to consider TRob has at least a year of experience over any other player in the top tiers of this draft. In today’s college game experience can really make you look like you are a better prospect than you are, because most of the best talent is very inexperienced.
Drummond for example would be a prime candidate to stay in school. If he did he could be in the running for the #1 pick next year. But he could also drop to the 20 range if all of his question marks remain unanswered, or even worse, prove to be accurate portrayals of his talent.
There are a lot of players where staying in school was almost their only option and it allowed them to be drafted high (TRob is a perfect example, Jimmer is another). I’m trying to think of players that would have been taken top 10, but stayed in school and became the top pick. Who comes to mind?

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Posted on: Mon, 06/25/2012 - 10:27am #687530

Hale
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It works both ways. The people who usually benefit the the most from an extra year can also lose some of the ‘potential factor’ if they don’t improv enough, which is the big reason for a lot of those kinds of players going high. You can come back and improve a lot and go higher (Blake Griffin) or you can play about the same or worse and drop dramatically (Sullinger, Jones, etc.). It’s just as much of a gamble either way.
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Posted on: Mon, 06/25/2012 - 10:33am #687532

Meditated States
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Guys play out of position and don’t work on what makes them special in order for coaches to keep their jobs. It drops your stock way more often then people want to admit. Kevin Love shot the three here and there but coach wants him in the paint in college. In the NBA say stretch the D kid. You have talent there so work on it. You can play your game more in the L.
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Posted on: Mon, 06/25/2012 - 10:33am #687534

SportsNinja
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Griffin is a perfect example of what I was asking. He would have been a lotto pick after his frosh year. He stayed and became the obvious #1.
Duncan is another but to less of an extent, he stayed until he was a junior, but I remember after his sophmore year there was talk about him being #1. He sort of solidified his stock and cemented his place as the obvious first pick.
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Posted on: Mon, 06/25/2012 - 10:42am #687539

FastAndFurious
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I always believe you go whenever your hot, if your a top 10 pick your freshman year…leave. No need to come back.
Let’s be honest, more times than not if your a top 10 pick and you come back your going to drop a little more that next year, not saying that happens to everyone but more times than not you will drop.
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Posted on: Mon, 06/25/2012 - 10:46am #687540

Sewok15
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It depends on the player and the situation but I would say overall more harm is done then good by staying in school once you are a sure fire lottery pick. Injuries would be the biggest thing I could think of and that certainly has a lot to do with the Sullinger situation. Even if the consensus #1 pick Anthony Davis came back to Kentucky for a 2nd year and tore his acl he could easily drop from the top spot. You would think you improve more as a player once you become a pro and devote all of your time to basketball instead of pretending to be a student. The only reason I see to stay in college is if you are having fun and don’t need the money which is a rare thing these days….the money part that is…college is still fun.
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Posted on: Mon, 06/25/2012 - 10:49am #687544

surve
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it depends on "when" they are top 10 talent. Quincy Miller is top 10 talent potentially (couldve been a top 10 draft pick if age-minimum was not in place), but not this year, so yes….it would help him because he couldve been top 10 or even 5 next year.
T-Rob and Jimmer were never top 10 "talent" but made themselves into top 10 "players"
scout4real is actually right on this one, top 10 talent is PJIII, but he is not a top 10 "player" in this draft, at least not consensus. he played out of position and Baylor wasnt a great place to showcase him….or on the other hand, Baylor was not Kentucky….a place where if PJIII had played…he weaknesses wouldve been masked much better. staying in school didnt help him because he didnt get to really work on his weaknesses.
John Henson was a top 5-10 player coming out of HS, and had he went to a program where he wouldve stepped in immediately, he wouldve been similar to Anthony Davis….but Henson needed strength and needed to play inside more and staying molded his talent into performance.
so there are cases to support on either side of the argument.
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Posted on: Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:00am #687552

FastAndFurious
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Or Quincy Miller could have came back and slipped ever further.
My whole take is whenever your top 10, leave, because that next year, your a year older and scouts are looking for holes in your game, which means your destined to drop.
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