Thinking about the WCF match up: Thunder vs Spurs

"Sorry for the long post…"

Hey, MikeyV never apologizes, so why should you. LMAO.

 But Popovich is the advantage you are not listing. He wins the matchup easily against Scott Brooks.

The spurs are a very deep, i gave them a slight advantage against the young Thunder, and also as stated above, Pops win the coach matchup, has the experience and in game strategic switches to outweight the outcome of the series.

Also, the deep Spurs have more felxibility on the injury department, because the Thunder can not afford to lose one of their 3 guys and be hopefuls to win the series.

I expect this to come down to 6 games. The Thunder will bring it, but the Spurs are just too great of a team right now. They like to take out whatever their opponents like to do, so don’t be suprised if they take out that high pick n roll that OKC likes to do. Also, I expect Danny Green to be guarding Westbrook throughout the series, while Kawhi to make some attempts at KD, who averaged 22 points against the Spurs the entire season. One last expectation, look for the Spurs to make Westbrook and Durant give it up to other players like Ibaka, Sef and Perk. A lot of expectations, but you get my drift.

A potential lineup of Westbrook, Sefolosha, Harden, Durant, and Ibaka should be scary for ANYONE.  They could really give the Spurs trouble with that.  Then they still have some good role players in Kendrick Perkins, Nick Collison, Derek Fisher, and Daequan Cook. 

I do think that the Thunder have a better fourth guy in Ibaka.  I think that the Spurs bench may be overhyped.  The Thunder have an ok bench, but Collison, Cook, and Fisher give them what they need in the playoffs.  Toughness, defense, and 3 point shooting.  They also have Nazr Mohammed off the bench at center to give them some minutes and some fouls.  Nazr won some titles with the Spurs I think so he should know that team fairly well (or at least the Big Three, Coach Pop, and their systems). 

I really like the Spurs’ Big Three.  But  outside that, they are ok, nothing great.  Diaw, Bonner, Stephen Jackson, Danny Green, Gary Neal, and Kawhi Leonard are playing great as a group, but do they really have a go-to scorer?  Or how about a defensive threat inside?  They have some guys that can hit the long ball but the the Thunder can counter with Cook and Fisher.  … I think that Fisher and Mohammed could play bigger roles in this series than one might think.  Both teams know the Spurs fairly well.  Plus, Fisher has hit big shots in his career (including a HUGE one against the Spurs).  

Not only do the Thunder have an awesome Big Three on the wing and perimeter, and some good shooters in the rotation they also have a nice big man core that can really clog up the middle and get the rebounds.  Ibaka and Perkins are great inside.  Collison is a tough 4 man off the bench who can rebound, defend, and hit mid-range jumpers.  And Nazr is a classic veteran center who comes off the bench in the playoffs and can mix it up. 

My key matchup is Duncan vs. Ibaka.  I think that Ibaka could have a really big effect on this series.  If he is the best guy in the series then the Thunder win.  If Duncan puts the Spurs on his back then the Spurs win I think.  I think that Perkins, Ibaka, Collison, and Mohammed can really slow down Ducan, plus they can shut down the middle with their shot blocking.  Those four aren’t the best offensively, but Ibaka is athletic and can dunk, and Collison can hit some shots.  Then they turn the Spurs into a perimeter, jump shooting team.  And I think that Durant, Westbrook, Harden and company is better than Tony Parker, Manu, and company.  

If I were the Thunder I would use an Ibaka/Collison front line for most of the game with both those guys giving OKC two high-motor defensive/rebounding pests.  I like Perkins but I think he might be too slow.  The Thunder might want to run, and Perkins doesn’t block enough shots or score enough to have him out there 40 minutes a night.  If I were the Thunder I would start out the game with Perkins on Duncan to beat him up and then use up some hard fouls.  Let Ibaka guard the other big and block shots from the weakside.  Then later in the game use Ibaka on Duncan since Ibaka’s length, youth, and athletcism to go along with his size and strength would give TD fits.  I think that Collison has the smarts and versatility to chase after Diaw and Bonner so I would utilize Collison a lot.  

… I think that the Spurs should use Blair a lot in this series.  He is a load inside and a good complement to Duncan.  Because outside of Duncan the Spurs don’t really have another low post scoring threat.  And outside the Big Three, the Spurs don’t really have a lot of go-to scorers.  I think, for them in this series, that Blair is as good as anyone.  … Splitter does a great defensive job on guys like Z Bo — scoring power forwards who aren’t as big.  Splitter uses his length and positioning to his advantage.  But, Ibaka isn’t that kind of big man.  he is probably bigger and longer than Splitter and isn’t really a low post scoring option either.  I think Splitter would be best in this series as a counterpart to Perkins.  Use Splitter at center to put a body on Perkins and keep him off the boards and protect the paint.  But I don’t think that Splitter is that inside scoring/rebounding weapon that Blair is.  

… Bonner and Diaw are perimeter-oriented bigs that can give a lot of teams trouble.  But, the Thunder can go with Collison on those guys.  Collison can get out and defend and draw charges.  He is also decent on offense from about 15 feet.  OKC can also use Durant at the 4 to counteract Bonner/Diaw.  

The sizzle in this series will be found in the backcourt, on the perimeter.  But this series may well be won or lost in the paint, in the trenches.

The Spurs are no joke, but OKC will be their biggest test to date. Utah was only in the playoffs because there had to be 8 teams, and while LAC was definitely an upgrade in competition, they’re not in the same league as San Antonio. As for the individual matchups, Parker does have an advantage. Both are quick as hell and better jumpshooters than their reputations suggest, but Tony has Russell beat in terms of court vision and passing ability. I don’t really see the Thunder taking the series unless they just shoot lights out for the entire series, but I agree with the general sentiment that it’ll come down to six or seven games.

 I think its basically a coin flip of who wins. Maybe 60/40. I want the Thunder to win and I would not be a bit surprised if they do win, but I think the Spurs take it in 7

 I also think it is safe to assume that whoever wins this series will win the championship

for making the WCF again.  They are making big strides every year.  Spurs in 5.

 That’s fine to say that Pop has experience on Brooks and everything but we all have to realize that Pop was once a young coach and was still good. Brooks is a hell of a coach and I don’t think it’s a big deference there. The Thunder are young but they have always been tough in series and same thing applies here. Sometimes young teams grow up fast and can make the leap. The Thunder aren’t that young and they’ve been here before. Times change and experience can’t win forever. 

Not counting the Spurs out, I just think a bigger deal is being made about thy stuff than it really is. It is going to come down to the matchups on the court. I don’t think the Spurs are going to make it look as easy on offense against OKC and they haven’t played a team this efficient offensively. I have the Thunder in 7 because I think they have the best matchups plus the best player. Westbrook completely nullifies Parker. If this was 2003 I would have Duncan over Perkins. It’s 2012, and while Duncan is superior still it’s not a huge difference. Harden is better than Manu. The benches are even. 

It’s going to be a fun series and I can’t wait.