Lottery Odds - NBADraft.net

This topic contains 9 replies, has 9 voices, and was last updated by truwizfan4evr 14 years, 1 month ago.

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Posted on: Sun, 05/20/2012 - 8:14pm #39317

r377

Participant

Does anyone else think the odds are too uneven and bad teams are rewarded for tanking ?

For example Washington with 20 wins has nearly a 20% chance of winning where as Sacremento who only won 2 more games with 22 wins have only a 7% chance. Is 2 more losses actually worth almost 3 times the odds ? The Pistons with 25 wins only have a 1.7% of winning. The GS pick with 23 wins is only 3.6%. The spread and odds are just too big. I don’t begrudge the Bobcats a 25% chance of winning but with the Wizards: there were only a few games between their 20 wins and alot of teams with only a few more losses

Updated April 28th – final standings and after tie-breakers
1. Charlotte Bobcats – 250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the #1 pick
2. Washington Wizards – 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3. Cleveland Cavaliers – 138 combinations, 13.8% chance
4. New Orleans Hornets – 137 combinations, 13.7% chance
5. Sacramento Kings – 76 combinations, 7.6% chance
6. Portland Trail Blazers (via NJ) – 75 combinations, 7.5% chance
7. Golden State Warriors – 36 combinations, 3.6% chance
8. Toronto Raptors – 35 combinations, 3.5% chance
9. Detroit Pistons – 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10. New Orleans Hornets (via Min) – 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11. Portland Trail Blazers – 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12. Milwaukee Bucks – 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13. Phoenix Suns – 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14. Houston Rockets – 5 combinations, 0.5% chance

Houston	34	32	.515	16	22-11	12-21	6-8	23-25	98.1	97.9	+0.2	Won 1	3-7
Phoenix	33	33	.500	17	19-14	14-19	9-5	23-25	98.4	98.6	-0.2	Lost 3	4-6
Milwaukee	31	35	.470	19	17-16	14-19	7-8	24-24	99.0	98.7	+0.3	Lost 2	3-7
Portland	28	38	.424	22	20-13	8-25	4-10	20-28	97.2	97.8	-0.6	Lost 7	1-9
Minnesota	26	40	.394	24	13-20	13-20	4-9	19-29	97.9	100.1	-2.2	Lost 2	1-9
Detroit	25	41	.379	25	18-15	7-26	4-11	20-28	90.9	95.7	-4.8	Won 1	4-6
Toronto	23	43	.348	27	13-20	10-23	7-8	15-33	90.7	94.0	-3.3	Won 1	3-7
Golden State	23	43	.348	27	12-21	11-22	7-8	16-32	97.8	101.2	-3.4	Lost 2	1-9
New Jersey	22	44	.333	28	9-24	13-20	5-9	16-32	93.1	99.1	-6.0	Lost 6	3-7
Sacramento	22	44	.333	28	16-17	6-27	3-10	16-32	98.8	104.4	-5.7	Won 1	3-7
Cleveland	21	45	.318	29	11-22	10-23	3-12	13-35	93.0	100.2	-7.2	Lost 4	2-8
New Orleans	21	45	.318	29	11-22	10-23	3-11	14-34	89.6	93.4	-3.8	Lost 1	6-4
Washington	20	46	.303	30	11-22	9-24	7-7	16-32	93.6	98.4	-4.8	Won 6	8-2
Charlotte	7	59	.106	43	4-29	3-30	1-14	5-43	87.0	100.9	-13.9	Lost 23	0-10

Posted on: Sun, 05/20/2012 - 8:46pm #672086

Tha King2121
Participant
Honesty I would Feel Soooo Bad if the Bobcats didn’t win the Lotto. Thats kinda messed up haha
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Posted on: Sun, 05/20/2012 - 8:48pm #672087

Coolidger
Participant
I’d feel bad for the Bobcats if they didn’t win the lottery, but i’d feel bad for Anthony Davis if they did.
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Posted on: Sun, 05/20/2012 - 8:51pm #672088

thricethefun
Participant
Wizards actually played well and were winning games at the end of the season (6 straight wins) whereas teams like the Warriors, Cavs, and Kings were clearly tanking games at the end.
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- Posted on: Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:42pm #672096
  
  earldaniel31
  Participant
  if the Kings lost against the Lakers in their final game they would be picking 3rd.. not 5th
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Posted on: Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:27pm #672095

RalphOliver
Participant
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Posted on: Mon, 05/21/2012 - 5:05am #672158

scootover7
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I think the Wizards should get the 1st pick because they weren’t trying to tank or the Kings. I don’t think the Bobcats intensity tanked. I do suspect Golden State did which if its past 7 Utah would get there pick which would be interesting.

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Posted on: Mon, 05/21/2012 - 5:19am #672162

PulseGlazer
Participant
I really hope the Bobcats don’t win the lottery. I’m rooting for the Nets out of selfishness (I wouldn’t mind watching Davis constantly) or the Hornets, since I think Monty is one of the better, more unheralded coaches in the league.
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Posted on: Mon, 05/21/2012 - 5:22am #672165

PulseGlazer
Participant
I really hope the Bobcats don’t win the lottery. I’m rooting for the Nets out of selfishness (I wouldn’t mind watching Davis constantly) or the Hornets, since I think Monty is one of the better, more unheralded coaches in the league.
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Posted on: Mon, 05/21/2012 - 8:44am #672226

truwizfan4evr
Participant
I reallyhope my wizards with lottery. Wall and davis will be scary for many years
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