ESPN insiders

First one:

Today Insider concludes its three-part debate over who will be the No. 1 pick in the 2012 NBA draft. All three of our draft insiders — Fran Fraschilla, David Thorpe and Chad Ford — debate the merits of the player currently at No. 3 on Ford’s Top 100: University of Connecticut freshman Andre Drummond.

Scouting breakdown

David Thorpe: I remember attending a high school game in December 2001, in St. Petersburg, Fla. The game featured one of the top prep players in the country against my alma mater, Seminole High School, which had a small and slow team with no one taller than 6-foot-3. The prep phenom had killed everyone all summer — for the second year in a row — and should have scored 50 in a cakewalk on his way to being a top five NBA draft pick the following June.

After watching him jog up and down the court, rarely showing his immense talent while his team lost to my below-average Warhawks, I laughed at the notion that a team would even think about drafting him. Apparently eight teams agreed with me in June 2002, perhaps having seen similar incidents throughout his prep career.

Today it’s clear that Amare Stoudemire was just bored out of his mind in those games. Likewise, I’ve seen Andre Drummond jog around during games. At times, scouts will catch him standing and watching rebounds, looking alive only when the ball is in his hands. Sure, it’s possible that he lacks the kind of motor a No. 1 overall pick should have, but it’s more likely that he’s so much better than everyone else on the court that it’s hard to remain on edge.

Indeed, the landscape of NBA draft history is littered with remnants of super-talented guys with lazy streaks, everyone from Stromile Swift to Andray Blatche — who’s as talented as anyone at his position but has not come close to realizing that potential. It won’t be enough for Drummond to play well, if he wants that No. 1 spot in the draft. He’ll need to play with reckless abandon, destroying guys most nights and not looking cute and crafty. It’s great that he likes to pass, but top overall picks need to show a disposition to dominate.

Certainly, potential drips off Drummond like beads of sweat. When compared to the rest of the possible 2012 draft class, he clearly leads in potential, with his rare combination of height, size, wingspan, build and agility matched with surprisingly adept basketball skills. Prospects usually have some or most of those assets, but not all.

The good news for Drummond is NBA scouts get to see him in action against Big East competition all year now, so there’s little chance he’ll be bored more than a few times all season. Scouts will get to see how hard he fights for paint touches or to deny them for his opponent. We know he can run the floor with speed, but will he consistently? He’s a gifted passer in loose AAU and All-Star events, but can he thread the needle a few times a game while not committing turnovers against five focused defenders? And there is little doubt he’ll be a strong in-area rebounder, simply because he’s both long and strong. He has the quickness and reach to dominate out of area as well, but that requires laser-like focus and desire.

The Big East is not for unfocused, lazy players, so we’ll see rather quickly how he’s built internally. No longer will he be the adult playing a game of checkers against 5-year-olds. So it will not bode well for Drummond if he still exudes disinterest as the season unfolds. Even with a great attitude, teams will not be ranking Drummond above Anthony Davis or Harrison Barnes if he is not a beast on the floor.

The college game

Fran Fraschilla: As if Jim Calhoun didn’t have enough talent returning from last year’s national championship run. Now, he’s added a 6-10 power forward in Drummond, who was thought to be the No. 1 player in the Class of 2012 before enrolling at UConn a year earlier than everyone expected.

USA Basketball In the Big East, Drummond’s true on-court persona will be revealed.

Watching Drummond is like watching Shawn Kemp when he was in high school. For his size, Drummond is a powerful athletic presence around the rim, has excellent shot-blocking instincts and has the mobility and agility of a smaller player. While Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger is the most polished big man in the country and Kentucky’s Anthony Davis may be the most versatile, Drummond might be the most physically imposing.

Ultimately, while Drummond’s NBA stock will be sky high based on his talent, it will also be because he will be surrounded by an experienced group of players that fit in with his strengths. He will play with one of the best backcourts in the country in Jeremy Lamb, Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright. And the veteran Alex Oriakhi will team with Drummond to provide the Huskies with a physical tandem inside.

If Drummond does what’s expected of him this season, his stay in the Green Room at next June’s NBA draft will be very, very brief.

Entering the draft

Chad Ford: As mentioned earlier, on sheer NBA potential, Drummond might be the best prospect in college basketball. He’s an athletic freak with an NBA body. What NBA GM doesn’t want that?

Drummond is more than just a physical specimen. He defends, rebounds, blocks shots on one end of the floor. On the other he can face the basket, take his man off the dribble and play in the post. Add in a great basketball IQ and some real passing ability out of the post and what isn’t to like?

Well … that’s where you start to lose GMs.

Drummond is a late addition to UConn, and his career has been shrouded in a bit of mystery. Despite immense physical abilities, he’s never dominated the way his athletic abilities suggest he should. His motor has been inconsistent, he’s shied away from contact in the paint and has scouts asking whether he really loves to play the game.

We saw a similar phenomenon last year with Baylor’s Perry Jones. He has the talent to be a No. 1 pick, but didn’t always play like one.

If Drummond can erase those doubts at UConn this season, he could leap both Davis and Barnes and grab the No. 1 spot in the draft. He’s that good. But scouts will be watching his every move closely. He’s going to have to convince them that he’s willing to do the dirty work that it takes to succeed in the paint.

Second one:

Today Insider begins a three-part debate over who will be the No. 1 pick in the 2012 NBA draft. All three of our draft insiders — Fran Fraschilla, David Thorpe and Chad Ford — debate the merits of the current top player on Ford’s Top 100: University of Kentucky freshman Anthony Davis. Up next week: UNC super sophomore Harrison Barnes.

Scouting breakdown

David Thorpe: Everyone loves players that are this long and agile. Especially when they have a great motor and attitude. A player like that can only get better. And such is the belief with Anthony Davis.

When I consider his story — he was a guard until a late, and huge, growth spurt sent him to power forward/center — it makes me think of the similar story of one of the best big men in the NBA today: Joakim Noah. In the span of five seasons as his team’s starting center, Noah’s won two national titles at Florida and now plays for the Chicago Bulls, which had the NBA’s best record in 2010-11. (The Bulls are also the league’s best defensive team.)

Noah, who has the hottest motor running of any 7-footer I’ve ever seen, can thank his feel for the game for much of his success. Most of that comes from being a guard for much of his early career. It forced him to learn the total game, while also giving him very unique advantages on each end of the floor. He can start a fast break with his speed dribble, just like Davis can. Or he can beat a slower opponent just outside the pinch post with a wicked crossover, then set up a teammate for the corner 3 or finish with a dunk himself. Like Noah, both actions are easily in Davis’ wheelhouse.

Noah also trusted both of his coaches, Billy Donovan at Florida and Tom Thibodeau with the Bulls, and allowed them to make him the focal point of a pressured offensive possession in the middle of the floor. They were both confident Noah would make a smart play. Davis has that kind of upside.

Also consider Noah’s ability as a dominant rebounder and defender, especially as a helper in space against smaller guys. Davis has those same kinds of tools.

Courtesy of McDonald’s Game staffA splendid blend of size and agility, Davis just needs more strength.

Davis has very few flaws in his game. His body will undoubtedly get much bigger and stronger (look at Noah these days and you’ll see how Davis could conceivably fill out). He’ll learn how to play both fast and deliberately under his college coach. He’ll be put in scores of situations where he’ll get to make plays off the dribble, only ensuring he’ll improve in that area. He’s already better than most bigs with the ball in his hands. Kentucky coach John Calipari is an excellent defensive coach, as well, so Davis should be well-schooled on that end.

He’s a can’t-miss long-term NBA starter who can be a rebounding force, a shot-blocking leader, an excellent pick-and-roll defender and quite possibly an offensive talent that must be in the game at crunch time.

Conduct the 2007 draft again and Noah would be a lock for the top 3 alongside Kevin Durant and Al Horford. And every league GM will be thinking about that when the 2012 draft rolls around.

The college game

Fran Fraschilla: Let’s face it. Davis is going to a great program that is known to enhance players’ value in the NBA draft. No one has been better at getting players ready to go high in the draft than Calipari. But Davis will certainly work at improving.

While we will see him play center and power forward a lot this season in order to take advantage of his tremendous length and athleticism, he is not going to overpower anyone in the NBA … or the SEC, for that matter. Instead, Davis will be great at rim-running in transition and occasionally handling the ball in the middle of the fast break. He’ll be finishing at the rim on a ton of screen-and-rolls and will clean up missed shots on the offensive boards. Even at 6-foot-10, he will be able to create off the dribble against the slower defenders he will be matched up against in college. And his size will affect the Wildcats positively on the defensive end of the court.

While Kentucky is loaded again with great young talent, Davis’ abilities will shine in Calipari’s system for a simple reason: Calipari’s system is designed around how he can enhance his best players’ skills. Instead of fitting a round peg into a square hole, he just makes the hole round. Davis is a perfect fit and it will pay dividends next June.

Entering the draft

Chad Ford: Davis really is the Holy Grail from an NBA scout’s perspective — he simply oozes potential. He’s tall, has a huge wingspan, runs the floor like a guard, is a great kid and here’s the kicker — he plays hard all the time. Prospects like that just don’t come along very often. Every scout I’ve spoken with loves the idea of Anthony Davis.

The question is whether the idea can transform into an NBA player. Davis needs to get stronger if he’s going to play the 4 or 5 in the NBA. He still needs to define his game — especially in the low post. Just as David Thorpe mentioned, a late growth spurt transformed a 6-3 guard into a 6-10 big man. Sometimes that’s just too big of a leap. Davis will also be on a loaded Kentucky team, which means he might not be able to showcase his skills from Day 1.

I think Davis is the favorite for the No. 1 spot because of the plethora of physical tools and intangibles he brings to the table. He won’t have to dominate as a freshman to maintain his lofty position — he just has to keep showing improvement.