My Top 10 Prospects for the 2012 Draft

Not only will the 2012 draft feature as deep a pool of elite prospects as we’ve seen in recent years, but these guys will be under more scrutiny than any crop in memory with a likely shortened NBA season. There are 20 prospects that I see having the potential to sneak into the top 10, so this should be a really exciting year to evaluate the progress of some very gifted young talents.

Here are my top 10, guys that I feel, despite the overall depth of talent, are noticeably in the highest tier. 

1. Andre Drummond (6-10/251; C/PF; HS Sr.; Undecided)

Currently deciding between a post-grad year of high school ball, entering the 2012 draft (he will be old enough and eligible) and playing one year of college ball (likely at UConn), all signs point to Drummond opting to go pro. I don’t like that he has a relatively weak motor and hasn’t had to develop much of an offensive game due to his size and athleticism, but he truly is special. Listed around 6-10/250, but rumored to be 6-11 and weigh as much as 280, Drummond is a jump-out-of-the-gym athlete with great touch and great instincts on defense. Would immediately become the greatest threat to Dwight Howard at the center position.

2. Harrison Barnes (6-8/223; SF/SG; Sophomore; North Carolina)

The wing position has never been weaker, and Barnes is the first wing with legit top-pick potential since LeBron. Barnes has perfect size for the three and he’s just as effective as an off-guard. He’s a great athlete, one of the best defenders at his position and is becoming more aggressive. Jumper is borderline perfect and he’s not afraid to let them fly from deep. If his ball-handling skills improved as some are saying after his stint at Chris Paul’s camp, he’d be the complete package.

3. Jared Sullinger (6-10/281; PF; Sophomore; Ohio State)

You hate to see players stock fluctuate based on size, but in Sullinger’s case, you really feel good about him measuring an extra inch taller. At 6-10/281 with an increasingly chiseled frame and ideal 7-1 wingspan, he has excellent size for the four when he was previously considered rather short. His developing mid-range game (he has great form on his shot) should come along this year, allowing him to enter the NBA with the promise of strong, even elite production in the post from day one.

 4. Anthony Davis (6-10/214; PF; Freshman; Kentucky)

As much as I like his game, Davis simply doesn’t have a valuable trait that stands out. The favorable comparisons (Kevin Garnett, Kevin Durant) are far less plausible than the less optimistic prospect comparisons (Marvin Williams, Anthony Randolph, Brandan Wright). But there’s a reason the Garnett/Durant comparisons are there. Someone who can confidently say he’s a top-notch ball-hander and shot blocker and boasts a 7-4 wingspan with an improving jumper could be very special, and fortunately, Davis has the requisite motor. Putting it all together and finding an identity as a player, though, is a challenge for any teenager, especially one that sprouted seven inches his senior year of high school.

 5. Perry Jones (6-11/235; PF/SF; Sophomore; Baylor)

After boldly deciding to remain at Baylor (he would have had probably a 50/50 shot at being the top pick in this past draft), Jones earned raves from those who’d chastised him for being somewhat careless, on and off the court. An athletic 6-11 with a picturesque jumper, Jones is the modern NBA forward you couldn’t even make up. He can score from anywhere, has the size to play three positions, and was efficient (13.9 points, 7.2 rebounds, 54.9% FG) while playing big minutes for Baylor as a freshman. Maybe his intentions regarding staying at Baylor weren’t as admirable – maybe he knew there was going to be a lockout and was professionally warned against it – and regardless, he’ll still have to demonstrate some maturation if he wants to leap back into the top-2 discussion.

6. James McAdoo (6-9/226; SF/PF; Freshman; North Carolina)

At best, Josh Smith with a better all-around offensive game. At worst, a hybrid forward similar to Josh Smith. At 6-9/226, McAdoo can comfortably play either forward spot and is arguably the best athlete in his class. He has an NBA body and is physically comparable, if not superior to, many of the best wings that are now in their prime. If he develops a reliable perimeter game, it’ll be hard to make an argument against him being a top-3 guy. Even considering his size and polished game, he’ll have to shake the ‘tweener’ label.

7. Quincy Miller (6-9/200; SF; Freshman; Baylor)

It will be interesting to see how this lean, wiry strong 6-9 freshman forward meshes with lean, wiry strong 6-11 sophomore forward Perry Jones. There are plenty of questions concerning Miller – like most oversized wings he tends to coast in stretches and he tore his ACL last year – but he’s a hard worker and should be commended for doing all he can do maximize his potential. With his remarkably refined perimeter game and top-notch athleticism, he could be a slightly smaller Kevin Durant. The scoring is there; once he becomes a more aggressive rebounder and defender, he’ll be a forward to be reckoned with.

8. Terrence Jones (6-9/249; SF/PF; Sophomore; Kentucky)

He hit a wall in the latter half of the season, but Terrence Jones was arguably the second most complete freshman in college basketball last year; the best was Jared Sullinger, and T-Jones’ Wildcats bested his Buckeyes in the Sweet 16. A 6-9 combo forward who averaged 15.7 points, 8.8 rebounds, 1.9 blocks and 1.1 steals on a Final Four team, Jones is also a great ball-handler for his size and has a high basketball IQ. Despite the dearth of talent in the 2011 draft class and a trio of 5-star recruits headed to UK, Jones decided to stay, which should give you a good idea about his attitude towards the game. He isn’t an extraordinary athlete, but with his size and skill set, he leaves little to be desired.

9. Jeremy Lamb (6-5/185; SG; Sophomore; Connecticut)

Few amateur basketball players have enjoyed greater success in 2011 than Lamb, who arrived in Storrs as a skinny, unheralded recruit and went on to help UConn to a national title while leading the USA’s U-19 squad in scoring in the world championships. Lamb’s ridiculous 7-4 wingspan allows him to play closer to 6-7 than 6-5, and he’s a smooth an operator with the ball in his hands; he has one of the best jumpers in the country, he’s great at getting to the basket, and he’s always incredibly poised. He’s developing a killer instinct, and once he adds five more pounds, he’ll be ready too accept the role of franchise off-guard for the team that takes him.

10. Brad Beal (6-4/196; SG; Freshman; Florida)

Comparing Beal and fellow 5-star shooting guard Austin Rivers is eerily reminiscent of the Eric Gordon/O.J. Mayo comparison in 2008. Mayo is a phenomenal athlete and a phenomenal scorer with a killer instinct and plenty of swag, but he’s extremely ball-dominant and isn’t the type of guy you always want to play with; the similarly sized Gordon was a born scorer, and didn’t pretend to be anything else. This year, Mayo was demoted to the pine while Gordon poured in 22 a night. Gordon lives in Beal, and Mayo in Rivers. Like Gordon, Beal has unlimited range, a killer instinct, a solid frame for a shooting guard, and the right attitude. Just as I touted Gordon as the next star shooting guard over Mayo in 2008, I believe in Beal.